First of all, futures trading and spot trading are also in one-to-one correspondence, and there are as many empty orders as there are, so there is no possibility that the number of empty orders will increase in one direction. Now, how many empty orders have been added is often just the number of the top N accounts with the largest number of empty orders. The increase or decrease of the total number of empty orders is the same as the increase or decrease of the total number of multiple orders, which is equivalent to the increase or decrease of the total position. According to the verification of previous statistical results, the increase of the number of empty orders held by the top N accounts does not necessarily correspond to the decline of the index, and we cannot prove that there is an inevitable causal relationship between them.
Secondly, the futures index is more speculative in the short term. At present, most of today's futures transactions are speculative orders, that is, intraday trading orders that will be closed on the same day. These orders don't care about future market evolution. During the trading period after the closing of the spot market, the futures index tends to have an obvious trend evolution, which makes the price difference between the futures index closing price and the index closing price widen rapidly. However, when the futures index opens the next day (earlier than the spot market), it seems that the futures index has completely forgotten the previous closing price, and sometimes the price difference between the futures index closing price and the previous index closing price is obviously reduced, or even the reverse price difference appears.
This phenomenon shows that the closing price of futures index is mainly determined by the mood of intraday traders, while the opening price of the next day is subject to the speculators' judgment on the trend of the day. Judging from the process of intraday trading, the speculative characteristics or gambling of futures index are more obvious. During the day, the medium-term index will always reverse in advance every time the small-band trend runs. If the index continues to maintain the original trend, the futures index will reverse again in a very short time and restore the original trend. This phenomenon shows that although the futures index is ahead of the index, it often makes mistakes, but once it makes mistakes, it will be corrected immediately. Therefore, the evolution of the futures index essentially follows the index, and there is no need to reverse the index just because the futures index reverses the index.
Finally, shorting the futures index is more conducive to increasing the confidence of holding positions in the spot market. We usually think that short positions with futures index will not hold the spot, but in fact this is only for speculators. For speculators, even if there is no short-selling means of futures index, they will definitely clear their positions in the short-selling market, so the short-term chips of speculators have little to do with whether there is a short-selling mechanism. However, for big money, it is completely different. Although large funds do not come in and out as frequently as ordinary investors, if there is no short-selling mechanism, they will try their best to lighten their positions when the market is bearish. Now that there is a short-selling mechanism, large funds can avoid risks by opening positions, which can increase their confidence in holding positions and reduce a large number of chips that should have been thrown.
It can be said that if there is no futures index, the adjustment and fluctuation of the market will be even greater in recent years. It is precisely because institutions have issued a large number of short futures orders that they are confident to continue to hold a large number of spot chips and minimize the selling pressure in the market.
Because the number of participants in the spot market is far more than that in the futures market, and the proportion of short-term speculators and even day traders in the futures market is not comparable to that in the spot market, it is unrealistic to let the spot market follow the futures market. In fact, on the contrary, it is the trend of the spot market that guides futures investors to "bet", but in a very short time, the strong "gambling" of the futures index will make its trend seem to have an "instant lead" effect.
Short selling mechanism can stabilize the spot market to the maximum extent, which has long-term positive significance for the development of the spot market. Therefore, we need more long-short products that ordinary investors can participate in, such as long-short graded funds, and submit index options for one year. Although it is risky for investors to participate in such products alone, if these products are used for hedging, investors can avoid the risk of market fluctuation more effectively, especially when the market is adjusted, locking some chips will play a positive role in stabilizing the market.