All disciplines in the world eventually return to the philosophical level. As the mathematician Nash in the film A Beautiful Mind said in his acceptance speech at the Nobel Prize ceremony, "I always believe that numbers, whether equations or logics, guide us to think. But after a lifetime of pursuit, I asked myself,' What is logic? Who will decide the reason? Thus, a joke was derived: the occupation closest to the essence of this world is security, and they asked, "Who are you?" Every day. Where did it come from? Where are you going? "These three ultimate philosophical questions.

The futures market is an invisible battlefield, and any player needs to constantly ask himself and strengthen his correct cognition. Otherwise, futures trading is not an "ATM" in the market, but a "monster" that chooses people to eat people. The author gives several thinking directions from the cognitive perspective of futures trading.

Cognitive probability

Probability is possibility, and the cognition of probability is a basic skill of futures trading. I believe that many futures investors will secretly regard themselves as brilliant "hunters" in the futures market, rather than poor "prey". As one of the best hunters in nature, cheetahs are only suitable for high-speed sprints, and they should go all out every time they attack. But even so, the success rate of its attack does not exceed 30%. However, the 30% probability does not affect the cheetah's reproduction.

Many investors, especially those who are new to the market, often think that they are better than other investors. Especially after relatively smooth trading, it is easier to form the thinking that "the futures market is easy to make money". In fact, there is no so-called "holy grail" in the futures market, and it is very common to have huge losses after making small profits, because probability exists objectively.

Many high-frequency trading hedge funds with good returns accumulate small profits on the basis of probability and finally get amazing returns. Grasping probability is like a green lightsaber that seeks failure alone. It is "extremely fierce and invincible."

Cognitive stop loss

"Stop loss makes profits run" is regarded as a criterion by many futures traders, but it is also "anti-human". Experts in behavioral economics have long found that human beings are much more sensitive to loss than to gain, that is, in personal "psychological accounts", the sadness of losing 100 yuan is far greater than the happiness of gaining 100 yuan. So stop loss is unacceptable for some investors.

In the face of losses, many traders prefer to "carry one", and maybe the market will get better tomorrow, instead of decisive stop loss. In fact, only by decisively stopping losses and preserving strength can we seek development in a suitable market in the future. In the futures market, it is important to "survive" first and then "become stronger". Just like a cheetah on the grassland, before becoming a good hunter, we must first avoid being eaten as prey. Of course, when many traders set stop-loss points, they suffered serious losses because of "small stop-loss amount" or "wrong judgment on stop-loss conditions". Therefore, it is particularly important to grasp the scale of stop loss.

Cognitive opponent

"Who are our friends and who are our enemies" is also an important issue in futures trading. Most people's answer is that if you are long (short), then your opponent is obviously short (long). However, is this the case? In the futures market, only when one party gives up and goes out can the other party make a profit, that is to say, the other party's loss is your profit. So it seems that the "comrades-in-arms" who share your profits are your competitors. At the same time, when the market goes to extremes, it will also lead to "stampede accidents".

Take the stock market as an example. When the market price keeps rising, a large number of traders keep buying crazily, which finally makes the stock price reach a stage peak. In this way, the last "catcher" is obviously not the "comrade-in-arms" bought by * * * before. The words "know yourself" are engraved in front of an ancient temple in Delphi, ancient Greece.

In the futures market, traders' biggest opponent is themselves. Only when you have a deep understanding of yourself, there will be no more concepts of "short position" and "long position" in your mind, and you can achieve "no front and no reactive power" in trading.

Understanding "Tao" and "Shu"

In futures trading, many investors often struggle whether to place orders according to the moving average system or the K-line form, whether the wave theory is effective or Gann's law is better, whether programmed trading is better or subjective trading is better, and the fundamental analysis of operation focuses on the spot status or future trend, and so on. In fact, it is not necessary to master one or two trading methods. With "one move", you can "eat all over the sky" because these are all technologies and belong to the category of "technique".

What really makes futures investors grow up is the improvement of mentality, system, overall situation and values, which is also called Tao. There are many stars in the futures market, and the rare birthday girl also illustrates this truth. Only when a person's vision and mind reach a certain level can he have awe of the laws of nature, follow the trend, lift weights lightly, and finally "everything can be a sword."