The surge in crude oil prices did not cause a big "commotion" in Japan.
With the increase in the price of crude oil in the international market, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the Japanese retail market have also risen, and the lives of residents have been affected to varying degrees. In August, the average price of standard gasoline at Tokyo gas stations rose to 128.6 yen per liter, the highest level since 13. The average retail price of diesel also rose to 80 yen per liter, the highest price in 20 years.
Japanese Minister of Economy and Finance HeizoTakenaka said in an interview recently that Japan's economy has just got rid of the lingering situation on the road to recovery. If oil prices remain high, Japan's overall economic development will be adversely affected. The rise in oil prices has the greatest adverse impact on aviation and other transportation industries and some power generation enterprises. Among them, Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways, the major oil users, expect their profits to decrease by 30 billion yen and 654.38+03 billion yen respectively this fiscal year.
However, after several shocks of oil price rise, Japan's energy consumption structure has undergone great changes, energy-saving technologies have been greatly developed and widely used, and the economy's ability to resist the impact of oil price rise has been greatly enhanced. Although oil prices have continuously broken through historical highs, so far, Japan's economy has basically not experienced major fluctuations.
First of all, the appreciation of the yen has greatly reduced the cost of Japan's oil imports. 1980 The price of crude oil in the international market exceeded $40 per barrel. At that time, the average exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar was 233.4 1. At present, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has reached around 1 10 to 1. Therefore, the oil price will rise to more than $80 per barrel, which is equivalent to the burden of Japan in 1980. Secondly, Japan's energy-saving technology has greatly improved the efficiency of energy use. At present, the consumption of crude oil per unit output value is only half of 1980. Japan's energy utilization rate has basically reached about twice the average level of OECD countries, so the direct impact of rising oil prices on Japan's economy is much smaller than that of other countries.
Japanese economic circles are more worried about the indirect impact of soaring oil prices on the Japanese economy. Although Japan is vigorously adjusting its economic structure, exports still have a decisive impact on the Japanese economy. If the rise in oil prices leads to a slowdown in economic growth and weak demand of Japan's major trading partners such as the United States, Japan's exports will be significantly affected and economic recovery will be hindered.
"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" believes that the adverse impact of rising oil prices on the Japanese economy by affecting the economic growth of trading partners is far greater than its direct impact. In the process of economic globalization, this is no longer a problem that Japan can solve by taking energy-saving countermeasures on its own.