From the domestic objective situation, I think the appreciation of RMB is mainly the result of the rapid development of domestic economy and the enhancement of the competitiveness of China enterprises. China's rapid economic development in the past 20 years has continuously enhanced its comprehensive national strength. A number of powerful enterprises like Haier have emerged in China, and the competitiveness of their products in domestic and foreign markets has been continuously enhanced. This competitiveness is manifested in the self-sufficiency of primary products in intensive industries in China. Because of the low export price, their products are quite competitive in the international market, which has promoted China's export and expanded China's balance of payments surplus. The rapid and stable development of domestic economy has made China have a good investment prospect and attracted a lot of foreign investment. China's utilization of foreign capital is characterized by productive loans and consumer loans. Productive loans have improved the welfare level of China, and consumer loans, whether used for pre-consumption, ironing consumption or pre-consumption, have promoted the economic development of China.
With China's foreign exchange reserves exceeding 1 trillion US dollars +0 1 trillion in June 2006, the sustained growth of foreign exchange reserves is also a manifestation of China's rapid economic development. The reserves rank first in the world, which shows the world the development of China. China can deal with various domestic economic problems, ensure the stability of RMB exchange rate, and enhance the confidence of countries around the world in RMB. They are willing to use RMB and believe that RMB will be available. However, the increase in foreign exchange reserves is not the more the better. With the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, it is difficult for monetary policy to maintain greater autonomy and flexibility. To some extent, it has fallen into a dilemma of reducing the pressure of RMB appreciation and restraining the growth of money supply, further affecting the effectiveness of macro-control, leading to inflation and rising labor production costs. The rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves will also attract international attention to China's trade situation and the value of RMB, and even provide some countries with an excuse to suppress China's trade.
Recently, with the continuous weakening of the US dollar, the RMB has shown a steady appreciation trend, and the accelerated appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has also led to the accelerated appreciation of the RMB against the Hong Kong dollar. Recently, the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollar against RMB also fell below 1 for the first time. At the right time, RMB, Hong Kong dollar and Australian dollar will merge to form a single currency, which is an economic and political strategy to unify China's territory and currency.
Judging from the international subjective situation, the strongest demand for RMB appreciation is the United States. Among the economic problems between China and the United States, trade imbalance and RMB exchange rate have always been the two most important disputes between the two countries. The value of RMB is the most fundamental of these two issues. The declining employment rate and trade deficit in the United States are considered to be the result of RMB depreciation in China. China's economy is still in the development stage. After China's accession to the WTO, there has been no significant increase in imports. On the contrary, China's trade is in surplus. This is because the products exported by China are all primary processed products, with low export prices and competitive advantages in the world, which has increased China's exports. The United States is China's largest trading partner, and China's primary products occupy a large number of American markets. The advantage of China's export is one of the main reasons for the weak primary product market in the United States. The United States strongly urges China to revalue the RMB, so as to change the predicament of the United States and make China's exports no longer have an advantage. I think this appeal of the United States is obviously based on its own assumptions. The United States is looking for ways to save its country and prevent China's goods from entering the United States on a large scale. Behind the requirements of this economic issue, the United States actually has deeper strategic and political considerations.
As a rapidly rising country after World War II, Japan's rapid economic development has stabilized the position of the yen in Asia. However, there is a sharp contrast between the Japanese economic recession in recent years and the rapid economic development in China. Due to China's sustained economic growth and stable exchange rate, most countries around China are more and more convinced of the RMB, and the Asian dollar status that has an impact on the status of the yen has been impacted by the RMB. Japanese demand for RMB appreciation is also based on the consideration of reducing China's export advantage, so as to reduce the advantage of RMB and ensure the position of the yen in Asia.
To sum up, RMB appreciation is the same requirement of China's domestic situation and international situation, and it is a political and economic contest among China, the United States and Japan.
The industries that can benefit from the appreciation of RMB are firstly those with RMB assets, such as real estate, financial industry (including banks, securities and insurance) and commercial enterprises with real estate resources. The appreciation of RMB means a corresponding increase in asset value and economic strength for them; Second, industries with high foreign exchange debt ratio. Mainly including aviation, trade and other industries, in the case of RMB appreciation against the US dollar, its solvency will be improved accordingly; Third, in industries with high import raw materials or parts, such as paper industry, steel industry, automobile industry, petrochemical industry, chemical fiber industry and plastic industry, exchange rate appreciation will reduce the import cost of major raw materials in these industries and improve their profitability.
In the process of RMB appreciation, the adverse effects are mainly concentrated in industries with a large proportion of exports. Traditional export-oriented industries will be directly impacted, including textiles and clothing, household appliances, machinery and other products. The rising cost brought by RMB appreciation will reduce the profit rate of the industry. At the same time, international pricing industries will also be affected, including non-ferrous metals, steel, electronic components and other industries. The appreciation of the renminbi will make their prices fall under the pricing of the renminbi, which will lead to a decline in profits.
Although appreciation will have a certain impact on China's export projects with advantages in the short term, it will increase the export price of China's traditional export products and lose its competitive advantage. At the same time, a large number of imported products will also flood into China, which will adversely affect China's independent industries. However, after the appreciation of RMB, the purchasing power is stronger, the consumption power of mainland people is enhanced and the welfare level is improved. For Hong Kong, the appreciation of RMB is conducive to improving the status of RMB and the prosperity of RMB business in Hong Kong's financial market. At the same time, the mainland's demand for Hong Kong's goods, services and tourism is conducive to boosting Hong Kong's economic prosperity. In the long run, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. China has great economic potential, and now the appreciation of RMB is negligible. The RMB will appreciate in the future, but only within a reasonable range will it be beneficial to China. If it is too high, it will be detrimental to China's exports. If it is too low, it means selling China products at a low price. The reasonable range is suitable for the economic development of China. There are also restrictions on the international market. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate has different effects on different industries, and the degree of influence is also closely related to the ability of enterprises to cope with exchange rate risks.
The main reasons for the rise of global food prices
● The supply shortage is partly due to the development of biofuel industry and climate change, and the sustained economic growth in countries such as India and China, which has pushed up the prices of agricultural products such as wheat, corn, milk and edible oil.
● Climate change has become a new challenge for global agriculture. Climate warming may make the wild relatives of crops such as potatoes and peanuts extinct, threatening the valuable gene sources that help these crops resist pests and drought.
In the next 50 years, more than 60% of 5 1 wild peanuts will be extinct, and 108 wild potatoes 12% will be extinct.
The National Bureau of Statistics recently held a press conference. Li Xiaochao, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, introduced the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2007. When talking about the rising prices of grain, meat and poultry and their products, eggs, etc., he said: first, the rising prices of grain in the international market are affected by many factors, such as the rising prices of grain and the increasing demand for grain. The grain price in the international market has been rising continuously since the second half of last year, and has continued to this day.
The change of grain price in the international market directly transmitted and promoted the rise of domestic grain price. From June 65438 to May, China imported 800,000 tons of grain and grain flour, which decreased by 5 1.5% on the basis of the decrease of 42.7% in 2006, that is, when international food prices rose, China's imports decreased, while its exports increased substantially. This year, from June to May of 65438.
With the improvement of people's living standards, although the proportion of people's direct consumption of grain is weakening, people's consumption of meat, poultry and eggs is increasing, and correspondingly, the demand for feed is also increasing. In recent years, we have also put into production some biofuels, such as ethanol projects. Correspondingly, the demand for food in industrial production is also increasing, and correspondingly, the demand for food is also increasing. In addition, in the first half of this year, the prices of agricultural means of production also continued to rise, up 5.2% year-on-year, an increase of 3.9 percentage points over the same period last year. These factors * * * pushed up the grain price in China in the first half of this year.
Second, the price of meat and poultry and its products is rising, especially the price of live pigs is rising rapidly. The increase in the price of live pigs is mainly affected by factors such as the increase in feed prices, the increase in costs, the decrease in income and the decrease in supply. Since the beginning of this year, with the increase of the income of urban and rural residents, the wages of workers engaged in pig raising have also increased accordingly, the transportation cost has also been rising, and the cost of pig raising has been increasing. In addition, the wages of migrant workers are higher than the income of raising pigs, and the comparative benefits are correspondingly reduced, which also affects the enthusiasm of raising pigs. In addition, there are more than 20 provinces and cities in China where a large area of blue ear disease has occurred, which has also affected the supply of live pigs.
Third, the base in the same period last year was low, and correspondingly there was a relatively high increase this year. In the first half of last year, the consumer price of food increased by 65,438 0.9%, of which grain increased by 65,438 0.3%, meat and poultry and their products decreased by 7.7%, and egg prices decreased by 65,438 0.9%. Therefore, the current rise in consumer prices has obvious structural characteristics. In the first half of this year, the core price index after deducting food and energy items only rose by 0.9%, and the ex-factory price of industrial products was basically stable, while the increase in the purchase price of raw materials, fuel and power was still falling.