The question now is not whether inflation is not, but whether it can be moderate. Finally, we can see that the central bank says that prices are rising moderately on the road. What is a moderate increase?
How to fight inflation? I can tell you clearly that most people do not have the ability to maintain and increase the value of inflation, and it is basically impossible to win. Because inflation itself means that everyone will be taken away with some money. If you want to make up for the loss, you can only get it back from other places, which is definitely risky. Most people can only buy some high-security financial products with fixed income, such as banks, trusts, bonds and conservative funds. Although they can't surpass inflation, they can still lose a little. I wrote an article before, how can we "win" future inflation? , explains this truth.
If you want to beat inflation and have confidence in your anti-risk ability and investment vision, you can really invest in some risky assets, such as stocks, funds and futures. But high returns are bound to be accompanied by high risks. No one's money is blown by strong winds, so you can enjoy it. According to the practical experience of China in the past ten years, only houses have outperformed inflation on the whole, but now house prices have also been divided, and the core is not the core. Don't you see that all the houses in Shanghai have risen to the sky now?
As for entrepreneurship, it has nothing to do with inflation, but with the economic environment. If there is no special channel, large-scale entrepreneurship is not recommended this year. I think this year is a year of "more thunder and less rain", many debt problems will be exposed and market credit risks will be released. This year, some areas of China's economy will indeed have bright spots. For example, after returning to normal, there may be an outbreak of accumulation, but basically the old people have occupied the pit, and innovative industrial technology has not yet appeared. Therefore, we must pay attention to risks when starting a business.
Thanks for inviting me. Whether there is inflation or not, everyone will have an intuitive judgment when they go to the vegetable market. The wholesale price of mutton rose from 69.22 yuan/kg in the 47th week of 2020 to 74.87 yuan/kg in the week of 2026 54 38+0, with an increase of 8. 16%, but if we look at the published cpi data, there seems to be no special change.
202 1 price increase seems to be no suspense. Investors who care about the stock market will know that the recent price increases of paper, titanium dioxide, oil and corn are all due to the gross ticket. Take the canteen under the unit building as an example. In the past, a plate of moo Shu pork cost 6 yuan; Later, 9 yuan; Now, 15 yuan. Actually, it's just a little cucumber slices, a little carrot slices and an egg. It's luck to find two pieces of meat, let alone pure fat. Needless to say, inflation or not.
My personal understanding of this gentleness is that it is quite gentle for the rich. However, for migrant workers, it is estimated that. . . Pro-understanding
1. In fact, from the perspective of social development, the basic price rises with the upgrading of consumption. I remember that from a 4-cent popsicle when I was a child to 3-4 yuan now, it has gradually increased by 100 times.
2. Last year, due to the epidemic situation and economic downturn, most foreign countries, such as the United States, carried out currency overspending, which led to the worldwide currency flooding, the real economy could not keep up and the demand was insufficient. As time goes by, these currencies are slowly displayed in circulation, supporting the price increase. This is also the way for the United States, as the world currency printing machine, to grab the wealth of the people of the world slightly and let the world pay for it.
According to the principle of economics, moderate price increase or controllable inflation can promote the weak economic recovery. As product prices rise, the relative profit space of enterprises increases, forming a virtuous circle. When people see prices rising, they may also buy and hoard goods to increase demand. However, the sharp rise in prices will also lead to shrinking demand.
4. So I personally think that the price increase of 202 1 is also a trend, and the whole world is releasing water. If it is not moderately increased, it is a loss.
202 1 will the central bank release the signal of moderate price increase with high probability? In fact, prices have been rising. There are three indicators to measure prices, including CPI and ppi. The former is the consumer price index, and the latter is the ex-factory price index of industrial producers. The former has a more direct impact on the general public, including food prices and service prices.
In recent years, the factors driving the price increase are mainly measured by CPI, especially the sharp rise of pork price and apple price, which has promoted the rise of CPI index. In recent months, the CPI index once fell below zero and entered negative growth, and now it is hovering at a low level, but this does not hinder people's expectations of rising prices, because: too much money is printed!
All inflation is a monetary phenomenon. This is what an economist said. Printing too much money often leads to market inflation, which is the so-called price rise. In 2020, the newly added monetary funds will exceed 9 trillion. Imagine how much it will cost to fill these monetary funds.
Of course, the central bank will use monetary policy to stabilize market prices and ensure reasonable and stable market prices, for example, through monetary tightening, that is, recycling money or printing less money. We can rest assured that there is no basis for full-scale market inflation in China.
About how to fight inflation. The answer is simple: buy core assets. Now that stocks and funds are at a high level, I am cautious. If there are suitable entrepreneurial opportunities, we should be cautious, because the 202 1 central bank may recover market liquidity, that is, money will not be so loose, and entrepreneurial opportunities will change on this basis.
It is difficult for ordinary people to fight inflation at present. High-risk markets, such as the stock market, have made money in the past two years, but in the long run, the risks are great. The house bought in the next few years has no market price and cannot be sold.
In banks, interest rates are very low. Neither can i.
Can you diversify your investment? It may be better to divide it into several investments.
I already have a clear feeling. ...
I think the pressure of 202 1 price increase is still relatively large, but it is not necessarily inflation. Generally speaking, CPI below 1% is deflation, 1% 3% is moderate inflation, and above 3% is inflation. Both inflation and deflation are unfavorable to the economy, while moderate inflation is most beneficial to the economy.
As can be seen from the cpi data, last year, affected by the epidemic, the consumer side showed some weakness, and the year-on-year increase of CPI dropped all the way. However, since 202 1, we generally feel that prices have risen rapidly, especially for agricultural and sideline products. Is inflation coming again?
We must treat this problem rationally. First of all, 1 means that the lunar calendar in China is drawing to a close, and residents' demand for consumer goods is increasing. Secondly, the weather in these two months is much colder than in previous years, resulting in slow growth of vegetables and fruits and imbalance between supply and demand. Finally, the economic recovery led to a rebound in consumption suppressed by the epidemic.
Therefore, based on the above three reasons, the current price increase cannot judge the coming of inflation. If the CPI is greater than 3% for two consecutive months after the weather gets warmer in the next two months, then inflation may really come.