The factors affecting the price of soda ash are as follows:
Upstream raw material prices and fuel prices fluctuate. The raw materials for soda production mainly include salt, ammonia water and carbon dioxide. Once the price of these raw materials changes, it will naturally affect the price of soda ash. The production of soda ash requires fuels, mainly coal and natural gas. As the raw material for soda production, coal accounts for 1/3 of the production cost, so the price fluctuation of coal and natural gas will also affect the production cost of soda.
Due to the demand of downstream glass industry, soda ash is the main raw material of glass. Besides fuel cost, soda ash is the biggest cost of glass production. According to the normal upstream and downstream relationship, soda ash and glass should both rise and fall. However, due to the huge impact of funds on the prices of soda ash and glass, the logic of rising more and falling less was broken. In addition, the real estate market situation, the real estate industry needs to use a lot of flat glass, so the real estate market situation will indirectly affect the price change of soda ash.
On the supply side, Lianyungang's domestic soda ash industry stopped production in the fourth quarter of 20021and implemented relocation and transformation, which affected the supply of domestic soda ash in the first half of 2023; On the demand side, the downstream of soda ash is used for glass production, so it is closely related to the real estate and automobile industries. On the one hand, the weakness of the domestic real estate market affects the demand for glass and soda ash, but on the other hand, the growth of photovoltaic glass and lithium carbonate drives the demand for soda ash. In addition, the high price of raw materials also supports the price of soda ash products.
It is reported that the spot price of soda ash rose to 3,000 yuan per ton 1.700 yuan, and remained at a high level of 2,700 yuan. In the first half of 2023, the performance of soda listed companies increased greatly. Non-net profit deducted from Su Yan Shenjing, Shandong Haihua, Hebang Bio and Xuetian Salt Industry has more than doubled year-on-year, with the growth of China Salt Industry exceeding 600%.
On the company side, Shuanghuan Technology released its semi-annual report today. In the first half of this year, the company achieved an operating income of 2.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of110/1%. For the reasons for the sharp increase in revenue in the first half of the year, Shuanghuan Technology explained that on the one hand, the sales volume of the company's main products soda ash and ammonium chloride increased compared with the same period of last year, and the sales price rose sharply; On the other hand, after the reorganization of 202 1 Company in July, the related transactions with Yingcheng Yihua Chemical Co., Ltd. increased. Specifically, the soda ash industry has a strong periodicity, and the sales of soda ash products of the company are good during the reporting period.
In addition, China Petrochemical recently announced that it expects to achieve a net profit of about 65.438+39.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, up about 865.438+0.25% year-on-year. During the reporting period, the company's main products such as soda ash and caustic soda rose in volume and price, and the profitability of the products was greatly improved. Hebang Bio recently announced that it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2023 will be 2.6-28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65,438+084.38%-206.25%. According to the company, soda ash benefited from the increased demand for photovoltaic glass and lithium carbonate in the downstream new energy industry, and the sales price of products increased significantly compared with the same period of last year.
CITIC Jiantou Futures said that the recent weak operation of soda ash price is mainly due to the increase in cold repair of float glass and the macro negative impact. With the recovery of float glass price, the loss of enterprises has narrowed, the expectation of cold repair of float glass has decreased, and the negative impact on soda ash has gradually weakened. The rebound of float glass price slightly restored the pessimistic expectation of soda ash in the previous market. If the glass continues
The incremental demand brought by photovoltaic glass production is the core driving force for the price increase of soda ash in recent two years. In the first half of the year, the domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity expanded significantly. Recently, China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the forecast of newly-increased domestic installed capacity in 2023 by 10GW. The bank expects that the demand for photovoltaic glass will continue to increase and the capacity expansion will continue. Considering that the current domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity is expanding too fast and slightly surplus, the bank expects that the photovoltaic glass production capacity will slow down slightly in the second half of the year, and the photovoltaic glass production capacity will increase from 654.38+0.2 million t/d to 654.38+0.5 million t/d, and the annual production capacity will increase by about 30,000 t/d, which will bring about an incremental demand of 654.38 million tons of soda ash during the year. The production progress of photovoltaic glass in the later period will have a great influence on the price rhythm of soda ash.
Affected by the global carbon-neutral policy, the domestic and international photovoltaic industry chain has maintained a high degree of prosperity, and the demand for photovoltaic glass has increased substantially. According to feedback from relevant enterprises, domestic soda ash exports are expected to maintain a high level in the second half of the year, with an average monthly export volume exceeding 65,438+10,000 tons. Maintaining a high export boom will reduce the domestic circulation and supply of soda ash, which will obviously support the spot price of soda ash.
Related concept stocks:
Shuanghuan technology (000707. SZ): Shuanghuan Science and Technology, as a chemical enterprise producing soda ash and ammonium chloride by combined soda process, can actually produce nearly 165438+ ten thousand tons of soda ash every year.
Zhongyan Chemical Industry (600328. SH): The company is a comprehensive enterprise with salt chemical industry as its main business. After years of layout, it has become a double leader in soda ash and sodium metal industries. At present, the company's annual output of soda ash is 3.9 million tons, ranking first in China.
Hebang Bio (603077. SH): The company's soda ash is mainly used to produce lithium carbonate, the main raw materials for glass and lithium batteries, and ceramic glazes. It is also widely used in household washing, acid neutralization and food processing.
Yuanxing Energy (000683. SZ): The company has 7.8 million tons of natural alkali projects, of which the first phase is 3.4 million tons, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2023; The second phase is 4.4 million tons and is expected to be completed by the end of 2025.
Related Q&A: Who are the listed companies that produce soda ash? Shuanghuan Technology (000707); Sanyou Chemical (600409); Qingdao Alkali Industry (600229);