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The old chickens are all gone, and the new ones are too heavy. Will the price of eggs rise next year?
The price of 20 19 eggs fluctuated greatly, strengthened in the off-season and fell sharply in the peak season. Instead of falling, the price of eggs soared to a new high after the Mid-Autumn Festival. The seasonal law of egg prices has weakened. Will this out-of-season market last? The market analysis of eggs still needs to return to the industry itself. In order to fully understand the real situation of laying hens, Shen Lu Futures Fresh Food Team launched a series of investigations on the main producing areas of laying hens. At the end of September, they came to the second stop in Northeast Heilongjiang and Jilin producing areas, visited more than 30 farmers, and obtained the latest first-hand breeding information, which provided a reference for the subsequent analysis of egg price trends.

One. research contents

The main content of this survey is to let farmers know the situation of chicken cleaning in the early stage, the current number of farms, the age structure of chickens, their attitude towards chicken cleaning in the future and their views on egg prices in the second half of the year.

Two. research results

1. The warehouse recovered quickly, and farmers expanded the warehouse many times and built new chicken houses.

After a large-scale loss of 20 17 and environmental impact, local banks are recovering rapidly. Take dehui city as an example. Dehui's highest inventory is around 5 million, and 20 18 fell to 3 million, and now it is back to the level of 3.5-4 million.

In addition, it is understood that although the growth rate of Zhaodong, the main traditional breeding area in Heilongjiang Province, is limited, the planting amount in Jiamusi, Yichun, Hegang and other northeastern regions has increased substantially. In the past, local eggs had to be imported, but now they can be self-sufficient.

In the investigation, we met many farmers who were building new chicken coops. Several farmers in Shuangyang District of Changchun City are getting together to build a new chicken farm in the area planned by the government. The construction of chicken coops has come to an end. At present, there are 80,000 farms in the breeding area, and 40,000 chickens will be built before the end of 10. After completion, the total number of farms will reach 260,000, and each farm will exceed 40,000. Their farm was about 10000 before.

2. Low egg production rate

The main breeds of Northeast Red Chicken are Jinghong and Blue Ocean Brown. Farmers generally report that due to the problem of red chicken breeding, the laying rate of laying hens is generally low, and it is difficult to reach 95% in the peak period.

Mycoplasma bursitis is more common in other areas, especially in Northeast China.

3. Eliminate old chickens from late July to early September.

At the end of July, the price of northeast old chicken rose to 6 yuan/Jin. The price in 6 yuan is very attractive to farmers. At the same time, they are also worried that the prices of old hens and eggs will fall after the Mid-Autumn Festival in September. Therefore, from the end of July to the beginning of September, the old chickens in Northeast China will be eliminated. Old chickens over 540 days are almost eliminated.

4. During the peak feeding period, the proportion of laying hens is high and there are few old chickens.

We have made statistics on the data of 3 1 farmers, and the samples are mainly scattered small and medium-sized farmers. The statistical results are as follows:1chickens under the age of 20 days account for 16.2%, 120-200 days account for 19.7%, chickens under the age of 200-300 days account for 20%, and chickens under the age of 300-400 days account for 30. See the attached table for the specific age data of chickens.

In the northeast, chickens are still the mainstay.

Most farmers in Northeast China have nurseries. They are used to raising chickens by themselves. First of all, they can save costs. Second, they can ensure the health of chickens and have a psychological foundation.

Although the price of eggs is very high at present, the habit of farmers to raise chickens has not changed. For example, Hebei Province rarely raises chickens directly.

6. Chickens are very active. Chicken is too expensive to arrange.

For a long time, driven by high profits, Shangdi economy in Northeast China is very active. It is understood that the current price of laying hens has risen to 5 yuan/feather, up more than 30% over the same period last year. Chicken price 18 yuan/feather. The sales of chickens and chickens in large farms have been scheduled for February next year, and the prices of chickens and chickens can only be determined according to the market prices when they leave the factory. At present, chickens grow very tall, and there are many chickens in the market. Farmers are worried about the price of eggs after the Spring Festival next year.