"The shortage of supply is the main reason for the current cotton price increase." Xu Xiaoqing, deputy director of the Rural Economic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, said in an interview with the reporter of Caijing National Weekly. In the first half of 20 10, affected by the financial crisis, the export of China textile and garment industry recovered, and the demand for cotton increased greatly. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, from June to June, the export volume of textiles and clothing reached 88.8 billion US dollars, up 22% year-on-year.

However, the impact of the financial crisis in 2008 led to the downturn in the export market of cotton spinning products, the downturn in cotton prices and the frustration of cotton farmers' enthusiasm. In 2009, the national cotton planting area decreased12.4 million mu.

In 2009, the total cotton output in China was 6.37 million tons, which was 1. 1.2 million tons lower than that in 2008. In the normal cotton production year, the cotton gap was about 4 million tons, and the reduction in production in 2009 further increased this year's cotton gap.

At the same time, there was more rain in the Yellow River basin in August this year, which was extremely unfavorable to the growth of cotton in bud stage, leading to the decline of cotton yield and quality. Li Ruzhong predicts that the total cotton output will drop by 20%~30% this year.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the difference between supply and demand of cotton spinning raw materials was 2.69 million tons in 2009 and 6.26 million tons in 20 10, an increase of 3.57 million tons over last year, and the cotton gap was obvious.

Internationally, Pakistan's floods have reduced cotton production, China and Brazil's import demand has greatly increased, India's restrictions on cotton exports, the continued depreciation of the US dollar, and the promotion of the international cotton futures market have all affected domestic cotton prices.

In order to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in the cotton market, China Municipal Government began to dump the cotton in August 10. However, judging from the trend, the price of dumped stocks opened higher and went lower, bottomed out at the end of August, and accelerated after mid-September.

Regarding the abnormal performance of the cotton market, Mao Changqing, an analyst of CITIC Securities, said in an interview with the reporter of Caijing National Weekly that due to the obvious performance of cotton production reduction this year, the market's expectation of future cotton prices will be higher.

At present, Shandong, Xinjiang and other major cotton producing areas have begun to buy new cotton, and the highest purchase price of seed cotton in some areas of Shandong exceeds 6 yuan/kg.

Will the listing of new cotton stabilize the current cotton price? Du Min, the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, told the reporter of Caijing Weekly that the national reserve cotton stock is limited, and the demand for cotton is still strong under the expectation of reducing production, and the market gap is very large. The listing of new cotton has limited effect on restraining cotton price, and the trend of price increase will continue to spread in the future.