First, the global stainless steel industry output and its distribution pattern
According to ISSF statistics, in 20 19, the global crude stainless steel output reached 52218,000 tons, an increase of about 2.9% over the previous year's 50.73 million tons. Except for the relatively stable growth rate of stainless steel in Chinese mainland, other major regions have declined to varying degrees. In 20 19, the national stainless steel output reached 29.4 million tons, an increase of 10. 1% compared with 26.706 million tons in 20 18. China's stainless steel production accounts for 56.30% of the global total.
Except for Chinese mainland, several other areas have declined to varying degrees. Among them, Europe decreased by about 7.9% to 6.805 million tons, the United States decreased by about 7.6% to 2.593 million tons, Asia excluding Chinese mainland, South Korea and Indonesia (mainly Japan, India and Taiwan Province Province) decreased by about 3.7% to 7.894 million tons, and other regions (Brazil, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Indonesia) decreased by about 2.0%. Except for China, the proportion of other regions has declined.
Second, China stainless steel market supply and demand and its characteristics analysis.
1. The scale of production and demand has increased steadily.
From the domestic market, with the development of economy and the improvement of smelting technology, the domestic stainless steel production and demand have maintained a relatively stable growth trend. In 20 10, the output of stainless steel in China was only112.56 million tons, and the domestic apparent consumption was only 9.4 million tons. By 20 19, the output and demand of stainless steel in China will reach 29.4 million tons and 24.0533 million tons respectively. During the period, the compound annual growth rate reached 1 1.25% and 1 1.0% respectively. Steady growth, higher than steel and GDP.
2. The export volume rose as a whole, and the import volume rebounded sharply.
Generally speaking, in recent years, China's stainless steel exports have shown an upward trend, and imports have rebounded. The import and export markets are greatly influenced by bilateral trade relations and China's industrial policies. According to customs data, in 20 18, China imported stainless steel1852,900 tons, an increase of 647,800 tons, or 53.76%. Stainless steel exports reached 3,994,500 tons, an increase of 52,700 tons, with an increase of 1.34%. In 20 19, China's stainless steel imports decreased to 1 1 18800 tons, and the export volume decreased to 3,672,300 tons, all of which showed obvious decline.
By stages, before 20 16 years, China's stainless steel exports increased steadily, while its imports decreased gradually, mainly due to the increase of domestic stainless steel production, relatively fierce market competition and relatively rapid substitution of domestic products. The competition of domestic products in the domestic and even global markets has gradually intensified, showing obvious characteristics of increasing exports and decreasing imports.
After 20 16, with the further advancement of supply-side structural reform in China, the stainless steel industry has been affected by environmental protection and various policies. The production cost of the industry has risen sharply, the competitiveness has weakened, the exchange rate has also risen sharply in the same period, and the export growth has stagnated. The demand for stainless steel in downstream industries is developing to the high end, the import volume has obviously rebounded, and the growth of export volume has stagnated. In 20 19, due to the trade war between China and the United States, the export of stainless steel and its downstream industries was greatly affected, and the import and export of stainless steel in China decreased significantly.
3. The product structure needs to be adjusted urgently
Generally speaking, ordinary stainless steel can be divided into austenitic stainless steel, ferritic stainless steel and martensitic stainless steel according to metallographic structure. On the basis of these three basic metallographic structures, dual-phase steel, precipitation hardening stainless steel and high alloy steel with iron content less than 50% are derived according to specific needs and uses.
According to the different compositions of stainless steel and kloc-0/, it can be divided into Cr series (400 series), Cr-ni series (300 series), Cr-Mn-ni series (200 series), heat-resistant chromium alloy steel (500 series) and precipitation hardening series (600 series). At present, there are three series of stainless steel products in China: 300, 400 and 200. Judging from the output of various series products, the output of 300 series stainless steel in China reached 65.438+03.494 million tons in 2065.438+09, an increase of 673.4 million tons, accounting for 45.90%, which was lower than the previous year. The output of 400 series was 5,502,600 tons, an increase of 35,700 tons year-on-year, accounting for 18.72%. The output of 200 series (including some products that do not meet the national standards) reached 1, 022.45438+0,000 tons, up 23.80% year-on-year, accounting for 34.76%. In addition, the output of duplex stainless steel has also been successful, reaching 180943.
Generally speaking, among the three series, the 300 series stainless steel has the widest application and the largest consumption, especially the 304 brand products. However, due to the high nickel content and relatively high price of 300 series products, the demand for 300 series products is limited to some extent. 200 series is developed by adding manganese and nitrogen instead of precious metal nickel on the basis of Ni-Cr austenitic stainless steel, with relatively low price and weak corrosion resistance, but relatively strong strength. In China, the 200 series is widely used as a cheap substitute for the 300 series. In recent years, with the increasing use of nickel in power batteries, the price of nickel is at a high level, while the growth of 300 series is relatively slow and that of 200 series is extremely fast.
At the same time, it is worth noting that China's stainless steel industry is still seriously overcapacity, the scale of enterprises is relatively small, and the quality of products is uneven. Most of the 200 series products do not meet the national standards. In recent years, with the increasing cost pressure of downstream enterprises, the price of 300 series products has risen, and the proportion of 200 series products that do not meet the national standards has risen sharply, and the industrial structure is facing greater adjustment pressure.
4. The demand structure is more diversified
From the domestic demand, metal products, construction and engineering machinery are the main downstream of stainless steel, followed by other transportation, motors, automobiles and parts. Compared with 20 18, in 20 19, the demand for stainless steel in the field of metal products was generally stable, with a relatively slow growth, accounting for 27.61%; The demand in the construction market has rebounded, and the proportion has also increased to a certain extent, reaching 23. 19%. The demand for construction machinery has increased rapidly, and its proportion has greatly increased, reaching 19.98%. Affected by the reduction of automobile production and sales, the demand for automobiles and parts has declined, and the proportion has also dropped significantly.
Generally speaking, from the domestic application of stainless steel, the application field of stainless steel is expanding and enriching, and it is expected that the consumption structure of stainless steel will be more balanced and reasonable in the future.
Three. Prospect analysis of stainless steel industry
Because stainless steel is a typical high alloy, the cost of nickel, chromium and manganese is relatively high, and the cost of these alloy components accounts for a high proportion in the production cost of the industry. According to the characteristics of industry price changes, the price of stainless steel is highly correlated with the prices of raw materials nickel and chromium, and the price of nickel plays a role in promoting the price of stainless steel. In recent years, with the increase of stainless steel production year by year, especially the development of 300 series high-end stainless steel, the demand for nickel (electrolytic nickel) has greatly increased. In addition, the development of ternary materials for power batteries is also a relatively stable increase in nickel demand, which promotes the healthy development of nickel industry and gradually stabilizes nickel prices.
It is expected that the price of stainless steel industry in China will remain stable in the future, especially after the listing of 304 futures, the price discovery and hedging function of futures is expected to create a better environment for the healthy and orderly operation of enterprises. It is worth noting that in 2020, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the global economic crisis will begin to appear, the stainless steel market demand may continue to decline, the industry operation will face greater difficulties, and the supply and demand structure will be greatly improved in the second half of the year. In the long run, the proportion of stainless steel production and sales in China's total steel production is low, and there is a lot of room for improvement. It is predicted that the market demand for stainless steel in China will continue to grow in the future.