The general commodity attribute of crude oil determines that it is affected by the general supply and demand relationship. The long-term trend of oil price is mainly determined by the basic supply of crude oil. Crude oil is an important non-renewable resource, and its storage capacity is declining. At present, if there is no new discovery of crude oil resources or more advanced refining technology, the price of crude oil will still be affected by the supply and demand of crude oil needed for global economic development on the premise of basically stable crude oil output.
An important aspect of crude oil supply is crude oil inventory. Crude oil inventories in various countries play an important role in the adjustment of international oil prices in the short term. The change of its data directly reflects the price fluctuation of crude oil market. When the price of crude oil rises, generally speaking, the inventory will increase accordingly; When the price falls, the inventory will also decrease. At present, the recognized basis for judging the crude oil market in the international crude oil market mainly comes from the weekly crude oil inventory data published by EIA in the United States.
Crude oil inventory data will directly affect the price trend, and also drive the rise and fall of London and Brent crude oil. When the futures price is higher than the spot price, the crude oil company will increase the inventory to shrink the supply, which will affect the rapid rise of the spot price; When the futures price is lower than the spot price, the crude oil company will release the inventory, expand the supply and realize the downward trend of the spot price. Crude oil futures have played a good buffer role in balancing oil prices in the short term.
Because of its important strategic resource nature, crude oil has been mentioned by major oil-producing countries as an important position related to national security and economy, and has been considered by various countries in political situation, economic development plan, strategic security and other aspects, especially the short-term oil price of crude oil. Competing for the control of crude oil resources and the dominance of crude oil market has become the main factor of international oil price turmoil. The intensification of geopolitics has deepened the intervention of producing countries in the international supply market, and it is also closely related to a series of measures implemented by producing countries to safeguard their own political and economic interests. Social stability and conflict in the Middle East, sanctions under American hegemony, and the production reduction agreement reached by OPCE for its own economic interests. Any sensitive political event may have a great impact on the fluctuation of oil prices.
With the intensification of economic globalization, the development level of the world economy has also become the fundamental factor that determines the supply of crude oil. Crude oil has been applied in many fields, which has promoted the rapid development of upstream and downstream industries, involving manufacturing, chemical industry, textile industry and so on. Economic development will have a direct pulling effect on related industries, thus driving crude oil consumption.
The formation of oil price is a complicated process, which is also influenced by speculative factors, dollar exchange rate, climate conditions and people's psychological factors, which also increases the difficulty of people's prediction of crude oil market. According to different periods, the proportion of each factor in oil price changes is different. The change of supply and demand structure is the fundamental reason that affects the long-term oil price, while the sharp fluctuation of oil price in the short term is more obvious because of other random factors.