Yi Gang, Governor of the Central Bank, made the latest statement on China's economic and trade war! Prepare for the worst.
1.2 trillion RRR reduction funds will be released soon, and the funds will be loosened first and then tightened in the second half of the month.
Market review
Market Comments: Risk prevention measures have been introduced continuously since the weekend, and short-term market risks are expected to ease.
Macro view: 50 private listed companies have announced that they have acquired state-owned capital shares.
Real estate: From June 5438 to September, the total financing of 85 typical housing enterprises was 828.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1 1%.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 273.95, up 0.61%; Copper 50720, up 0.46%; Rebar 4 1 12, up 0.66%; Rubber 12325, up by 0.57%; The PVC index was 6725, down by 0.52%; Zheng Chun 3502, up1.74%; Shanghai Aluminum 14280, up 0.18%; Shanghai Nickel 104950, up by 0.23%; Iron ore 5 14, up 0.10%; Coke 2529, up1.67%; Coking coal 1368, down 0.07%; Crude oil 568, down 0.42%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5930, up 0.61%; Corn 19 13, up by 0.47%; Palm oil 48 18, up1.13%; Cotton 15600, up1.07%; Zheng Mai 2553, down 0.00%; Sugar 5 144, up 0.92%; Apple 1 1753, down 0.14%;
Exchange rate: EUR/USD 1. 1557, down 0.31%; USD/RMB 6.8 197, up 0.64%; USD/HK$ 7.8333, down 0.0 1%.
New stock tips
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Main recommendations
1, central bank governor Yi Gang's latest statement on China's economic and trade war! Prepare for the worst.
10 June 12- 14, Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, attended the 38th meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) and delivered a speech at the G30 International Banking Seminar in 20 18.
1. For China's economy: At present, China's economic growth is stable, and it can achieve 6.5% economic growth this year, or it may be slightly higher.
2. As for Sino-US trade friction, there are three factors in Sino-US trade balance that cannot be ignored. A trade war will lead to both losses. China sincerely hopes to find a constructive solution to the Sino-US trade friction, but it is also prepared for the worst.
3. As for China's monetary policy, the current monetary policy is neither relaxed nor tightened. There is still considerable room for monetary policy tools, including interest rates, reserve ratio and monetary conditions. Considering that the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, China's interest rate level is appropriate.
Comments: President Yi Gang's speech shows that China has sufficient monetary policy space and the ability to cope with the worst case, which is expected to stabilize investors' expectations, ease market panic and benefit the market.
(investment consultant? Jin Cai? Certificate number of registered investment consultant: S02606 1 1090020)
2. 1.2 trillion RRR reduction funds will be released in the second half of the month, and the capital structure will be loosened first and then tightened.
On Monday (10, 15), the latest RRR cut was officially implemented, and it is estimated that the released funds will exceed one trillion. The insiders believe that under the combined effect of RRR interest rate cut, issuance and payment of national debt, quarterly tax payment of enterprises and other factors, the 5438+00 fund will be relaxed first and then converged in the second half of June, and this week will be the most relaxed period of this month.
Comments: judging from the situation of funds, the funds will be loose first and then tight in the second half of this month, and this week will be the most relaxed period of funds this month; Combined with the recent trend, the loose situation of funds this week is expected to support the market rebound. However, if the funds tighten in the second half of this month, the height of the market rebound will not be very high, and it is not recommended to grab the rebound from heavy positions in operation.
(investment consultant? Jin Cai? Certificate number of registered investment consultant: S02606 1 1090020)
Market review
1. Market Comment: Short-term market risks are expected to be alleviated with the continuous introduction of weekend risk prevention measures. On Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly lower, and the three major indexes hit new lows. Individual stocks continue to panic selling. Subsequently, banks and other weighting sectors gradually rose, supporting the three major indexes to turn red, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 2600 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 2%. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9 1% and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%. The index rose by 0.52%. From the disk, oil, steel, banking, cement, coal and other sectors were among the top gainers, while planting and forestry, environmental protection, gas, water and other sectors were among the top losers. In the short term, the initial stabilization and rebound of the market is mainly due to the convergence of the market's own persistent panic. The first counterattack of the heavyweights on the disk reflects the signs of active involvement of funds, which is generally considered by the market as an inspiration at the policy level. According to the weekend news, Shenzhen's policy of supporting listed companies to resolve the liquidity crisis has aroused great public concern, which is conducive to alleviating the market's concerns about the current equity pledge of small and medium-sized private enterprises. We believe that the short-term market has touched the bottom line of "preventing financial risks" at the policy level. Recently, both long-term problems such as tax reduction and social security and short-term problems such as financing and leverage have accelerated reform or increased support. Whether there are specific measures to quickly land in the future is the core factor that determines whether the long-term mood in the market can be repaired. In operation, investors are advised to hold shares mainly. After the market crash, most of the risks have been released, and confidence is more important than gold at this time. On Friday, there were obvious capital inflows from China manufacturing sectors such as new energy vehicles and 5G, so investors can pay attention to the oversold rebound opportunities of high-quality white horse stocks on dips.
(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)
2. Macro: 50 private listed companies have announced that they have acquired state-owned capital shares. According to the statistics of China, a brokerage firm, 50 private listed companies have announced that they have acquired shares of state-owned capital. Since September alone, 18 companies have disclosed the intention of major shareholders to transfer state-owned shares.
Investment Comments: Last week, due to the sharp drop in the external market, A shares fell sharply, and many small-cap stocks have lost liquidity. Short-term state-owned capital is willing to take over, which is conducive to alleviating the liquidity pressure of small-cap stocks. Small-cap stocks have risen sharply for many times in recent two years, and some targets have shown significant investment value. This news also helps to stabilize investors' confidence in small and medium-sized stocks.
(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)
3. Real estate: From June 5438 to September, the total financing of 85 typical real estate enterprises was 828.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1 1%. According to the data of Ke Rui real estate research, the total financing of 85 typical real estate enterprises from June 5438 to September was 828.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of11%; 43% of the financing amount of housing enterprises decreased year-on-year; In September, the overall financing cost rebounded to 6.9 1%, reaching the highest value since the second half of last year.
Investment Comments: Since the beginning of this year, real estate financing has been significantly tightened, and real estate has entered a cold winter. Vanke also shouted the slogan of "live" at the conference. The reduction of financing amount and the rebound of financing cost are fatal blows to housing enterprises. In the future, the pressure on small and medium-sized housing enterprises will be even greater, and most of them will be eliminated or merged. For large housing enterprises, the short-term impact will also be obvious, and it is expected that the profits of housing enterprises will be significantly affected next year. But in the medium and long term, the industry adjustment period is conducive to the integration of leading housing enterprises. After the short-term market oversold, investors can pay due attention to the rebound opportunities of leading real estate enterprises.
(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)