Robert mundell, the "father of the euro", said that there are other reasons for the slow economic growth, high unemployment rate and increasing trade deficit in the United States, but American politicians are often good at finding scapegoats to divert domestic people's dissatisfaction. In the 1980s, the Japanese used to be scapegoats, and now it's China's turn.
Mr Mundell warned China that Japan was forced to appreciate the yen under the pressure of the United States, and at the same time, Japan's economy was in a state of slow growth for a long time. We thank Mr. Mundell for his advice, but we can't simply follow it blindly. For any sound, whether malicious or well-intentioned, we should think independently and never simply follow blindly.
On the issue of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the voice from the United States is not small. It is said that the current unreasonable RMB exchange rate in China is mainly due to official manipulation. If the government completely liberalizes the foreign exchange market, the free foreign exchange market will adjust the RMB exchange rate to a reasonable level, which will keep the foreign trade between China and the United States generally balanced.
On the surface, this statement seems to be correct. So far, this sentence has been firmly attracting the attention of China people. But if we look deeper, we will find that there is an evil attempt buried in this statement, which is actually the same old story. Grandma Wolf went to the rabbit and told him how fresh the air outside was and how tender and delicious the grass was. There is only one way to breathe fresh air and eat tender and delicious grass, and that is to open the door. So Mexico opened the door, Malaysia opened the door, Thailand opened the door, and then something terrible happened.
On the environment and opportunity of RMB exchange rate system reform. Despite the influence of the renminbi in the surrounding areas of China
Its strength has increased, but compared with international currencies such as the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the euro, the RMB still belongs to the border.
The adjustment of the currency exchange rate system must consider the changes in the international economic environment. At present, the world economy is in danger.
The international financial market is in turmoil, and there has been a serious "value dislocation" between the major international currencies, and there has been a great adjustment.
The whole thing is inevitable. Changes in the external environment have indeed greatly increased the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate and the new equilibrium level.
Difficulty. Therefore, the reform of RMB exchange rate system must fully consider the influence of the international environment, especially the three main types.
The trend of currency exchange rate fluctuation is carried out under the specific global financial market conditions.
The adjustment of RMB exchange rate system must strike a balance between achieving domestic goals and regional goals. In fact,
During the Asian financial crisis, the firm policy stance of not devaluing RMB established the dominant currency position of RMB in Asia.
One of the states. The International Monetary Fund has also noticed this and pointed out in its assessment report that in recent years, China
Our exchange rate policy has served China and the Asia-Pacific region well. Therefore, the adjustment of RMB exchange rate system in the future
We can focus on domestic policy objectives, but we should consider the future prospects of RMB internationalization and give due consideration to RMB.
Responsibilities and obligations of regional leading currencies.
The choice of RMB exchange rate system and the adjustment of exchange rate level should break through the traditional consideration based on trade balance.
When increasing the influence weight of international capital flow on exchange rate, the total balance of payments and structural objectives are the leading factors.
The adjustment of RMB exchange rate should fully consider the possible changes after China's further integration into the world economic system.
Adjust the RMB exchange rate system and exchange rate according to the overall characteristics of open economy and the characteristics of China economy.
The determination of this level is linked to the change of economic structure, which increases the influence scope and intensity of RMB exchange rate policy.
The final choice of RMB exchange rate system depends on the views of decision-making departments on "independent monetary policy-free capital flow"
The preference and target balance of different schemes in the famous "impossible trinity" of "dynamic-exchange rate stability" The author realizes that
Therefore, for a big country economy with increasingly domestic demand-oriented characteristics, an independent monetary policy is undoubtedly our first priority.
If we choose, the freedom of capital flow will be significantly improved in the next five years, and the final result will be the people.
The rise of currency exchange rate fluctuations will eventually be implemented in the exchange rate system-in the near future, we will hold
There is a floating exchange rate system with structural flexibility.