A Ying, a futures investor, lamented that his trading system had a low chance of winning. He said, "Why is my trading system not accurate?" I have studied many different trading systems, including long-term, mid-line, short-term and intra-day, and dozens of different styles of trading systems can all make profits in the end, but the correct rate of almost all systems cannot exceed 50%, and the correct rate of one rebar mid-line system is slightly higher than 50%. When you make a firm offer, you will make the same mistake again and again, that is, you are under great psychological pressure. Because most operations will stop in the end, when the signal appears, I am often too timid to place an order, so I often miss the big market. Or bite the bullet and place an order. If there is a slight loss or some profit, you will be in a hurry to close your position, and you will not be able to get the liquidation signal. Strictly follow the signal, there will be considerable benefits, but the actual operation is far from earning so much. I often tell myself to strictly abide by the trading system, but when I make a firm offer, I still can't help but be affected by the violent fluctuations in the session. I don't know what it is often said that the correct rate of operation is as high as 80% and 90%. "

In my opinion, the success rate of the operation, that is, the ratio of right to wrong, can reach 50%, that is, once something goes wrong, it should be considered very high. A futures expert said that his chance of winning was less than 30%, which he thought was very good. According to my own calculation and feeling, my chance of winning is only 25%, and I will be satisfied if I am wrong three times and right once.

The winning rate is not equal to the profit and loss rate. If the winning rate is low, you can make money. Judging from the medium-term trend, even if the winning rate is only 25%, making money is certain.

The basic logic is this:

If you make a mistake, you will lose 3% according to the stop-loss condition. If you make three mistakes, you will lose less than 10%, and if you make one mistake, you will earn 15% to 20%, all of which will make up for the overall profit.

The actual operation can't be wrong three times, sometimes it will only be wrong once or twice. For example, in the first half of this year, we intervened in short selling of rebar according to the 30-day standard, and * * * operated three times. The first two times were wrong, and the last time was right or wrong twice, and * * * lost 3%. Finally, by the way, we firmly hold it according to the rules and have earned nearly 20%. For example, sugar was wrong twice in the first half of the year, and then it was right again. If you are wrong twice, you will lose 5%, and now you earn 8%.

Li Bin, a futures expert, said that he was opposed to optimizing the trading system and using many parameters to increase the odds, because it was too far from the actual situation and had no operational significance, so it was more practical to lower the odds.

This view represents the general view of currency traders, and great minds think alike.

For the investor eagle, someone answered him like this: Oh, your chances of winning are very low, because you are profitable. Do you want to exchange losses for high odds? A single strategy must be like this, unless a sub-strategy is added. The odds are inversely proportional to the wind-to-newspaper ratio, and the profit is mainly determined by the wind-to-newspaper ratio, not the odds.

I'm a little relieved to see him. I don't quite understand what he said about single strategy and sub-strategy, but he said that low odds make me profitable and make me more confident in my strategy.

From the perspective of the investor eagle, he didn't make money because of his low chance of winning, but because he didn't trade strictly according to the system. When it is time to open a position, I dare not open a position and build a single position. The profit sheet held by the long-term company cannot be taken down, and the profit cannot be let go. He believes that every transaction is correct and there is no loss every time. As a result, he lost the right opportunity.

This reminds me of Li Bin's words. A good trading system that can make money only accounts for 65,438+00% of the success. Being a robot with a wooden head is as stupid as a cucumber and has no brain, but knowing to operate according to the signal accounts for 60% of the success.