Event 1: the "two sessions" elected a new country * * *

The "two sessions" in 2008 were unusual. It is the first national "two sessions" held after the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and it is also a five-year congress. The first session of the 11th National People's Congress and the first session of the 11th National People's Congress of China People's Political Consultative Conference will elect state organs and China People's Political Consultative Conference to form a new government.

Event 2: Olympic Games

On August 8, 2008, the 29th Olympic Games will be grandly opened in Beijing. Athletes from all over the world will participate in 28 major events and 302 minor events. The Beijing Paralympic Games will be held on September 6th.

Event 3: 30th Anniversary of Reform and Opening-up

At the end of 1978, the historic Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing, which opened the prelude to reform and opening up. In 2008, China will celebrate its 30th anniversary.

The Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee made a new decision on reform and opening-up, which began the historic transformation of China from "focusing on class struggle" to focusing on economic construction, from rigid and semi-rigid to comprehensive reform, and from closed and semi-closed to opening-up. This plenary session marks that China has entered a new era of socialist development. Since then, the reform and opening up has experienced a magnificent historical process from rural areas to cities, from economic systems to various systems, from invigorating the economy at home to opening up, and has embarked on a Socialism with Chinese characteristics road. In his speech on New Year's Day this year, Hu Jintao said that it is necessary to systematically sum up and develop the 30 years of reform and opening up, and there will be a crow at that time.

Event 4: Preventing inflation

How high is the CPI increase? How severe the government's anti-inflation measures will be. Judging from a series of measures in 2007, the central government's determination to tighten monetary policy as a whole will not waver, especially in the first half and the second half. With the gradual decline of CPI and the completion of the new general election, the corresponding policies will be loosened.

Event 5: Stock index futures

Gold futures finally listed on June 9, 2008, 65438. Will the launch time of stock index futures be further delayed? From the first trading day in 2008, the collective malaise of large-cap stocks expressed concern about this uncertainty.

Stock index futures is an inevitable product of the development of the stock market to a certain stage, and its introduction is of great significance to the development of China's stock market and the optimization of financial structure. On the one hand, stock index futures can play the role of hedging, which can hedge the risks and losses of the stock market; On the other hand, it can also enhance the pricing power of China's capital market. In recent years, various Chinese stock index futures products have been launched in overseas markets, which may affect the trend of China stock market in time and pose a potential threat to China's financial security.

Event 6: "Shenzhou VII" launches the first spacewalk of Chinese astronauts.

The Shenzhou VII manned spacecraft will be launched in 2008, when Chinese astronauts will leave the cabin for spacewalk for the first time, probably after the Olympic Games. The launch of Shenzhou VII will be another milestone breakthrough in China's manned spaceflight project, and it will also continue the myth of "Shenzhou V" and "Shenzhou VI". Therefore, it is still worthy of attention for the aerospace sector.

Event 7: Housing Policy Reform

The promotion and implementation of low-rent housing and affordable housing policies in various places is not only a test of the ruling party's ruling ability, but also a great test of the future real estate market.

Event 8: Medical system reform

The reform of medical system has been put forward for several years, but there is always a sound of stairs, but no one comes down. This livelihood policy is expected to be vigorously promoted after the change of leadership in 2008. The state will increase capital investment, support the construction of four systems covering urban and rural residents: public health system, medical service system, medical security system and drug supply security system, and promote the solution of the problem of difficult and expensive medical treatment.

Keywords: 1 Global economy: The United States is facing a recession crisis.

Event: In 2008, the American economy, the locomotive of the global economy, will face the possibility of recession. The main reason for the economic recession is the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States.

Viewpoint: With the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the American economy has been seriously affected, the stock market has experienced great turmoil, and the real estate market has been hit hard. In order to prevent the American economic recession, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates continuously. However, with the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis, American economic growth showed signs of slowing down.

Once the American economy slows down obviously, or even goes into recession, it will have a great negative impact on the global economy, and will have a great impact on China's exports. In 2008, the export growth rate of China will slow down, which is about 6 percentage points lower than that of 2007. At the same time, the growth rate of European economy will also be affected, with a slight decline, which will also have an impact on China's exports.

At present, China's economic growth mainly comes from exports. Once the export growth slows down, China's economic growth will be more dependent on domestic demand.

Obviously, the country has fully realized the importance of domestic demand to economic growth. Judging from the recent discussion on raising the tax threshold, it is hoped that residents can have more disposable income, more disposable income and further increase consumption.

Of course, if the US economy really enters a significant recession, it will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in the global economy, a greater impact on China's economy, and a sharp decline in exports. Therefore, in the investment in 2008, we should try to avoid industries and stocks with external demand.

Keywords: China economy: macro-control has been further strengthened.

Event: Since the beginning of this year, macro-control has been obviously tight, and both the control of real estate and the control of food prices, means of production and resource prices have been significantly strengthened. From 2008, macro-control will continue to be strengthened.

Viewpoint: Recently, the central bank raised interest rates for the sixth time this year. The timing of raising interest rates is unexpected, and the market has been worried about the impact of macro-control recently. This rate hike is tantamount to adding insult to injury, which will further strengthen the market's expectation of the government's determination and strength in macro-control in the future.

In 2008, the macro-policy may show several trends: the monetary and credit policy will continue to tighten, the deposit reserve ratio will continue to hit a new high, and it is possible to raise interest rates by 27 basis points twice or three times; For "high energy consumption and high pollution" products, the scope of products will continue to expand by reducing or exempting export tax rebates or even collecting export tariffs and using export licenses; The pace of RMB appreciation is steady and fast, and the appreciation rate against the US dollar may exceed 6%. At the end of the year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar may reach about 6.8: 1. Due to the scarcity of resources, the prices and resource taxes of minerals, land, water and other resources can be adjusted, and so on.

Keyword 3: Monetary policy: 10 is "tight" for the first time in years.

Event: The Central Economic Work Conference held in early February, 65,438 proposed that macro-control policies should be improved and implemented, preventing rapid economic growth from overheating and structural price increases from turning into obvious inflation as the primary task of current macro-control, and prudent fiscal policies and tight monetary policies should be implemented in 2008. This is the first time in 10 years that a tight monetary policy has been implemented.

Viewpoint: Since the beginning of this year, there has been a structural increase in food prices. In order to prevent obvious inflation, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that a tight monetary policy would be implemented. Since then, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio again, raising interest rates for the sixth time during the year, indicating that monetary policy will remain tight in the next stage.

In 2008, the central bank may still use the monetary policy of raising interest rates and the deposit reserve ratio to reduce market liquidity. However, the United States has entered the cycle of interest rate cuts, and Canada and the United Kingdom have also cut interest rates recently. In this way, in order to avoid further narrowing of international spreads, the space for the central bank to raise interest rates will be limited, but the psychological impact will be great.

Compared with 2007, the liquidity in 2008 will be tightened. First, the growth rate of foreign trade surplus will slow down, thus reducing the growth rate of base currency; Second, because bank credit control has been strengthened. Many banks will be more cautious in lending in 2008, and the scale of credit supply in the whole year will not be too large compared with 2007.

Keywords: 4 Company performance: the growth rate of performance may slow down.

Event: Since the second quarter of 2007, the growth rate of listed companies has shown signs of slowing down, and the performance of listed companies has become the focus of attention in 2008.

Viewpoint: There are many differences among major institutions on the performance growth of listed companies in 2008.

On the one hand, there are many unfavorable factors in the performance growth of listed companies in 2008: the global economic slowdown led to the slowdown of China's export growth; Under the continuous tightening monetary policy, the investment growth rate will be controlled; The rise in factor prices brings the pressure of rising enterprise costs; The investment income of listed companies will drop obviously in 2008. On the other hand, the favorable conditions for promoting the performance growth of listed companies have not changed for a long time: equity incentives, overall listing, tax reform, etc. will all promote the profit growth of listed companies beyond expectations.

Although it is difficult to unify the views of major institutions, it is estimated that the proportion of listed companies' performance growth of 30% ~ 40% next year is still relatively high. However, after two years of bull market, investors still need to be cautious about companies that do not rely on their main business to promote performance growth.

Keyword 5 Stock index futures: Everything is ready, only the east wind is needed.

Event: "The stock index futures related plan has been reported to the State Council, and it is estimated that the timetable will be issued in March and April next year." "Shang Fulin, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that it is necessary to promote the smooth launch of stock index futures!"

With the completion of technical preparations for CICC, the expectation of launching stock index futures is getting stronger and stronger. With the approach of 2008, the introduction of stock index futures has made people feel that "rain is coming".

Viewpoint: "2008 is expected to be the first year of stock index futures!" Market participants and institutions have basically the same understanding of this, but the most realistic problem is before us. When will stock index futures be launched? What the management needs to consider is that the introduction of stock index futures will not have much impact on the stock market as far as possible; At the same time, the underlying index of stock index futures is less likely to be controlled. Judging from the current progress, everything is ready for the launch of stock index futures, just waiting for the final starting gun.

Keyword 6 Exchange rate trend: RMB is expected to accelerate its rise.

Event: February 29, 2006 1 USD against RMB 7.8087; On February 25th, 2007, 1 USD was exchanged for RMB 7.326 1 Yuan; This means that in the past year, the appreciation of the RMB has exceeded 6%.

Viewpoint: "Accelerating the appreciation of RMB and expanding the outflow of investment capital can better solve the potential inflationary pressure caused by excess liquidity and food and crude oil prices", which is the opinion of Gong Fangxiong, research director of China District, JPMorgan Chase. Most economists have basically the same view on the accelerated appreciation of RMB next year, with the expected appreciation range of 7% ~ 9%. In the market in 2008, industries that benefit from RMB appreciation, such as real estate and aviation, have great opportunities.

Keywords: 7 Overseas investment: Hong Kong stock through train, QDII

Event: Hong Kong stock through train, QDII-this is the market behavior of management to curb excess liquidity.

Viewpoint: In September this year, southern fund launched its first QDII. In just one month, four QDII funds were quickly robbed without exception, and the minimum placement ratio was only 25%; However, a few months later, all four QDII funds lost money, and three of them even fell below 0.9 yuan. For management, the problem that has to be considered is the safety of investors' funds.

At present, many fund companies have obtained QDII qualifications, so the large-scale issuance of QDII funds next year should be predictable. But for the through train of Hong Kong stocks, there are still many variables. But one thing is certain, because the share price of the H-share market is much lower than that of the A-share market, it goes without saying that once the through train of Hong Kong stocks is liberalized on a large scale. (Chengdu Business Daily)