At present, China is in the middle stage of industrialization. With the rapid development of manufacturing industry, the consumption of oil and other energy sources has increased sharply, the import has increased year by year, and the dependence on foreign countries has been increasing. Because the growth mode of extensive economic in China has not changed substantially, the proportion of high energy-consuming industries is too high and the output value of GDP per unit energy consumption is too low; At the same time, China has not yet established a relatively perfect oil market system, with a single trade mode, rigid pricing mechanism and slow market response. Undoubtedly, the soaring international oil price has brought many negative impacts on China's economic operation and residents' life. High oil prices will not only increase foreign exchange expenditure, increase enterprise costs and household consumption expenditure, but also aggravate inflationary pressure. However, the current high oil price will not change the basic trend of China's economic growth.

The adverse effects of rising international oil prices on China's economy are mainly manifested in the following aspects:

1, increase foreign exchange expenditure and increase the pressure of foreign exchange balance. According to preliminary estimation, the average price of crude oil per barrel this year is estimated to be around $38, which is as high as 10 compared with the average price of $28 last year. It is estimated that China will import1.20 billion tons of crude oil, accounting for 880 million barrels. The rise of international crude oil price to $ 10 per barrel will directly cause China to spend $8.8 billion more in foreign exchange to buy oil. Moreover, the import of crude oil alone will cause a trade deficit of more than $30 billion this year, which will bring great pressure to China's trade balance. “G

2. Increase the cost of enterprises and reduce the profit rate. With the rise of oil price, the price of petroleum-related products will inevitably rise, which will increase the cost of enterprises in China and directly affect transportation, metallurgy, fishery, light industry, petrochemical, agriculture and other related industries to varying degrees. In the current international and domestic markets where supply exceeds demand, all or most of the production costs of these industries due to rising oil prices cannot be passed on to downstream enterprises or final consumers, so the profitability of all walks of life will decline or even lead to serious losses, enterprises may shrink their production scale, and the economic vitality of the whole society will also decline.

3. Increase residents' consumption expenditure. Individual consumers will directly become the recipients of high oil prices. Since the beginning of this year, due to the rise in international oil prices, China has raised the price of refined oil products three times, which has obviously increased the expenditure of some consumers in this regard and led to some consumption tightening or consumption transfer behaviors. The rise in oil prices has become one of the main reasons for the weak sales of family cars this year.

4. Intensify the potential inflationary pressure. The continuous rise in international oil prices will raise domestic energy prices, and the prices of related industries that use oil as energy or raw materials will rise, forming a new price increase factor. The new round of price increase in China since the end of last year has two sources, one is the increase in food prices, and the other is the increase in energy and raw material prices. Due to the pressure of rising international oil prices, China has raised the price of refined oil products three times, which has aggravated the potential inflationary pressure to some extent. According to the report of the International Energy Agency, the Economic Department of OECD and the Research Department of IMF in May 2004, if the oil price rises by 10 USD a year, the inflation rate in China will increase by 0.8 percentage points.

5. Deteriorating the external economic environment of China. The high oil price since this year has had a certain negative impact on the economic growth of countries such as the United States, Japan and Europe. Judging from the economic data in the second quarter, the economic growth rate shows signs of slowing down. The slowdown of economic growth in major economies will reduce China's external demand to some extent and affect China's foreign trade exports. n

However, high oil prices will not change the basic trend of China's rapid economic growth. First of all, the current rise in oil prices is the result of various accidental factors. Without long-term characteristics, oil prices will fall back to a more suitable price. Secondly, a series of macro-economic control measures will help to alleviate the shortage of China oil market and the inflationary pressure caused by rising oil prices. Thirdly, at present, the benefits of enterprises in China are still relatively good, which can, to some extent, alleviate the cost pressure brought by high oil prices. In the first seven months of this year, industrial enterprises above designated size in China maintained a profit growth rate of 39.7%. Fourthly, in China's energy consumption structure, raw coal accounts for about 70%, and oil accounts for about 23%, which is not dominant. Although the proportion of crude oil and natural gas is rising, it will have a certain negative impact on China's economy, but its impact is still under control. Fifth, the actual average transaction price of crude oil is lower than people usually think. On the one hand, because some oil import contracts have already determined the price in advance; On the other hand, new york West Texas crude oil, which is widely concerned, is a good variety. Usually, the oil price is 2-3 dollars higher than the European Brent oil price and 5-6 dollars higher than the OPEC package oil price. According to customs statistics, the average import price of crude oil in China in the first half of this year was US$ 33.8 per barrel, up by 13% year-on-year, and the average import price of refined oil increased by 6. 1% year-on-year, far lower than the increase of 2 1% in new york and European markets in the same period.

Countermeasures to be taken in the near future

1. Raise energy conservation to the level of basic national policy. In 2003, the consumption of crude oil and raw coal in China was 7.4% and 3 1% of the world's respectively, while the GDP created was only 4% of the world's. China's energy consumption is very high, its energy utilization rate is very low, and its energy-saving potential is huge. In the face of the impact of rising international oil prices on China's economic operation and people's lives, we must take practical measures to carry out energy-saving activities in an all-round way and raise energy-saving to the height of the basic national policy.

2. Accelerate the marketization of domestic oil pricing. At present, the domestic "quasi-price" is still set by the state, which is one month later than the international market. From the perspective of price mechanism, China oil market is far from being truly marketized. Recently, the introduction of fuel oil futures trading is of great milestone significance. However, the proportion of fuel oil in China's total oil consumption is small, and the futures price of fuel oil cannot achieve the function of hedging and avoiding risks of the whole oil product. However, other oil products are currently in a low degree of marketization and cannot be traded in futures. With the sustained and rapid economic growth and increasing demand for crude oil, China has become the second largest crude oil consumer in the world. With China's share in the Asian crude oil market, it is entirely possible to launch its own crude oil-related futures to form a landmark regional market price, which can resist the risks brought by price fluctuations to some extent. Therefore, China should speed up the marketization of domestic refined oil prices, change the situation that oil prices rise more and fall less, further standardize the price formation mechanism, and accelerate the introduction of mature varieties of futures trading. ]

3, the use of part of the national debt funds to develop and utilize new energy. Developing alternative energy and renewable energy is the world trend of sustainable development, and it is also an urgent task for China to transform its economic growth mode. China has the ability to compete with conventional energy sources in solar water heaters, wind power generation and solar photovoltaic power generation, geothermal heating and geothermal power generation, and biomass energy utilization technology. With appropriate policy support, it is expected to become an alternative energy source. Increasing the proportion of new energy sources in energy consumption and reducing dependence on imported oil as much as possible are major issues facing China's energy construction in the future. The government can consider using part of the national debt funds to support the development of new energy.

4. Intensify oil exploration and development along the coast of China. At present, the South China Sea and the East China Sea are rich in underground oil and gas resources. Strengthening exploration in these places can increase China's self-production capacity of oil and reduce its dependence on foreign oil. China should actively develop these resources while shelving disputes; At the same time, it is necessary to maintain good relations with neighboring countries, avoid vicious competition for oil resources, and ensure the safety of maritime oil transportation.

Repatriation of overseas oil shares as much as possible when the international oil price is high. In recent years, the "going out" strategy of China petroleum enterprises has achieved certain results. At present, China Petroleum owns shares in Sudan, Venezuela, Peru and Kazakhstan, and has produced 60 million tons of crude oil overseas. In addition, China oil companies such as Sinopec and CNOOC have also extended their reach overseas. When the international oil price rises sharply and the domestic import cost rises sharply, the share of oil produced by China oil enterprises should be repatriated as much as possible to reduce the price risk of directly importing crude oil from the international market.