The cost of holding positions includes storage fees, insurance premiums and interest on capital occupation, which is three months here.
So the theoretical price is 8.2+(0.025+0.005+0.01) * 3 = 8.32 USD/bushel.
If the formula is used, the basis of short hedging will be stronger and more profitable. The original basis is the spot price minus the futures price =-holding cost, which is -0. 12 USD/bushel, so the later basis should be -0.08 USD/bushel.
The formula is relatively simple, but this problem can be solved without a formula, because the transaction price has been given, the spot profit is 0. 12 USD/bushel, and the futures loss is 0.08 USD/bushel, so the futures price is 8.32+0.08=8.4 USD/bushel, and the basis is 8.32-8.4=-0.08 USD.
the second question
1) The purpose of the hedger is to avoid price fluctuations, so it is still necessary to hedge. Obviously, hedgers are willing to hedge and establish long hedging positions 1 1 month. Another possible operation here is to move the position, that is, close the original September long insurance position and establish a new 1 1 month long insurance position. Although selling hedging in the futures market is likely to lose money, it should still focus on production and business activities, and there should be no luck, so the operation is to sell the 1 1 month contract, and of course it may also be to move the position and change the month contract.
The arbitrator buys the far-month contract (buy 1 1 month), and sells the near-month contract (sell in September) to become a loose cow.
Speculators buy contracts in recent months and far months, hoping that the contract price will rise and make a profit.
2) If I have a lot of money, I will do arbitrage, focusing on stability. But I don't have that much money and want to get rich quickly, so I have to speculate. The meaning of this question is to see if you understand that intertemporal arbitrage is less risky than speculation, so you'd better write "I will arbitrage because the arbitrage risk is small and the speculation risk is too high". Write something else casually, such as I don't like speculation, or I don't like adventure.
3) The hedger will make a profit. If he buys the September contract, he will make a profit of 250 yuan/ton. If he buys the 165438+ 10 monthly contract, he will make a profit of 280 yuan/ton, but his spot cost will also rise.
On the contrary, when hedging is sold, the contract loss in September is 250 yuan/ton, and the contract loss in 10 is 280 yuan/ton, so they will make more profits in the spot market.
All hedgers, no matter whether they are profitable or losing money in the futures market, their production and business activities are protected.
The base of beef powder has weakened from -20 to -50, and the profit is 30 yuan/ton.
If speculators make multiple contracts in September, they will be forced to close their positions because natural persons cannot enter the delivery month or in mid-July. They couldn't analyze their profits because they didn't give the price in July. Make multiple 1 1 month contracts and make a profit of 280 yuan/ton.