There are more and more gilded sows, and the behavior of reducing production has basically stopped.
Previously, the industry said that due to the continuous reduction in the production capacity of fertile sows, pig prices will remain high for a long time, and at the same time, high prices will also promote the increase in production capacity. It is estimated that the number of fertile sows will increase in the second half of 20 16. Judging from the skyrocketing price of piglets, are people eager to make up for it? Increase. At the same time, the stock of sows tends to pick up. From the perspective of various regions, except for the needs of environmental protection policies, spontaneous production reduction has stopped. Of course, for this year's market, many people choose to maintain the status quo, but there are still a considerable proportion of farmers who make up or prepare to make up the column, and a few are still reducing their scale. In addition to big pig enterprises, there are retail investors and even the injection of social capital. The stock data of fertile sows will not drop to the present level and increase again. It can basically be concluded that this round of pig price cycle is expected to end next year.
Frozen meat storage followed closely, but the pig market rose and the enthusiasm continued.
The enthusiasm of the festival has passed. With the opening of meat storage in Beijing, market consumption has weakened, and the willingness of slaughter enterprises to reduce prices has generally increased. However, with the support of tight supply, the pig market maintained a small upward trend above the high level. However, even if the storage of frozen meat followed, the enthusiasm of the live pig market continued to rise. Not only the price of live pigs goes up, but also the price of piglets keeps rising. On the one hand, it is certain that under the support of short supply, there is still room for the pig price to rise in the afternoon. On the other hand, it also shows that the high breeding profits are constantly stimulating the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the column, and at the same time, some social capital is trapped, which also shows that market risks are accumulating, supply exceeds demand, and it is still inevitable to fall into the next round of decline cycle.
Affected by the epidemic last winter, it is expected that the pig source will be tight in the later period.
With the release of the winter epidemic, the market generally believes that the next three months will be the period of the greatest shortage of pigs, and the shortage of pigs is expected to be strong in the later period. It is estimated that the supply of live pigs will be in short supply from May to July, and the price will be high and firm. Therefore, there is no doubt that the price of pigs has risen. The price of pigs has once again hit a new high because of May Day, and social psychology is generally full of confidence. Up to now, six cities have put stored meat on the market, and there will be more later. However, due to the impact of Beijing's two-month purchasing and storage on the northern market, we still think it is difficult to provide substantial help and change the rising pattern of pig prices. At present, there is little suspense in the rise of pig prices, and people in the industry have said that there will be signs that the amount of pig breeding will gradually increase in July and August. Therefore, we now need to pay more attention to the timing of the inflection point of pig prices and be prepared to make up the column.
It is difficult to alleviate the tight supply situation by storing frozen meat in the ground boiler dam.
Before May Day, the pig market was firm. During the festival, the prices of live pigs and meat rose, and even reached 2 1 yuan/kg in some areas, and the average price reached a new high. Especially in South China and coastal areas, butchers have no meat to sell in some areas, and with the influence of factors such as prohibition and demolition, bullish psychology has risen. Before May Day, some areas began to place panba frozen meat on the roadside. Yesterday, Beijing also made up its mind to let go of frozen meat for two months to ensure supply and prevent the price of meat from rising too fast. However, the insiders believe that this investment is only to prevent the pig price from rising too fast, ensure the supply problem in the off-season, and comfort the management of Pan-Australia, so it has little impact on the income.
Has Beijing used its meat reserves for two months to show its cards?
These two days, Beijing is about to start a two-month frozen meat storage and storage work, which has become the focus of the industry. In addition to seeing that this is a means to ensure supply and curb meat prices, some farmers also said that the government may have shown its cards. Pig farmers must look at their friends' analysis of "obscure Tao", which is good for the pig industry, not good. Because this is done to cope with the impact of the large-scale piglet damage gap in northern China at the end of 20 15 on the subsequent pig market. In other words, the government indulged and restrained the pig industry for two months. In order not to increase the social and industrial internal contradictions caused by the excessive rise of pig prices, the government started to comfort many parties with leverage, and also to prevent the rise of the most "pig shortage period". At the same time, it also gives the slaughtering enterprises a chance to breathe. It is expected that there will be a fierce game while the price of Ciyuan pigs remains high.
The probability of pig price increase in May after the holiday is still relatively high.
Many farmers said that in fact, this year's pig market does not have to worry too much. As long as pigs are healthy and have pigs in their hands, they will make profits in time and play moderately.
Indeed, from February this year to now, the average price of live pigs has broken 10, and some areas have gradually moved closer to the price of 2 1 yuan/kg. Although there were times during the period, they were all slightly adjusted. During the period, the suppression of public opinion and slaughter price failed to substantially shake the pig price. It can be said that the price of pigs has gone up for three months.
During the "May Day" period, the price of pigs has been on fire again, but most people think that the consumption stimulus will disappear after the holiday and the price of pigs will converge. But this is only from the perspective of demand, and the pig shortage at the supply end remains unchanged. The listing of pre-holiday stored meat has little effect on pig prices, and the market has obviously strengthened. In addition, May is the turning point of the small cycle over the years, and the winter epidemic effect began to appear. Therefore, the probability of pig price increase in May after the holiday is still relatively high.
The price of pigs is gradually approaching the price of 2 1 yuan/kg, and the risk of replenishing the column is increased.
Judging from the post-holiday market trend, the pattern of supply and demand remains the same, and the seller's market has the upper hand. It is expected that the price of pigs will continue to rise in the near future, gradually approaching the price of 2 1 yuan/kg. However, the market risk of excessive price is also increasing. Moreover, the piglets that have been replenished now can't keep up with this round of pig price increase, so they need to be carefully replenished. Although we were optimistic about the forecast of this round of rising cycle before, once the crazy replenishment appeared, we had to raise our risk awareness. The accelerated recovery of sow stocks has decided the timetable of the falling cycle. In addition, although large-scale development has become a trend and will become the main force in the feeding mode, retail investors are still a force to be reckoned with, at least in the short term. At present, it is the main force of reserve sows, which is often ignored by the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture. So this pool looks like a bottomless pit, but there are still many places we can't see through.
Farmers: selling pigs is not a dead price, but a card time node.
The strength of the May Day market has increased farmers' confidence, and the actions of filling the column and pressing the column have further increased. Indeed, the tight supply and the emergence of epidemic effects indicate that the most scarce moment of pigs is coming.
However, the higher the price, the more at the forefront. So we don't have to sell pigs at a dead price, but we should seize the time node. Hubei netizen "C Zhu is not sick" said that the current rise in pig prices has led to the start of the dam, and some people even buy standard pigs for fattening. The increase of pigs in the dam, like the rise of reservoir water level, is slowly accumulating. When the water level rises beyond the bearing capacity of the dam, the dam will collapse, flood and the water level will often drop sharply. Once the trend of selling is formed, the slow sales of fat pigs are unexpected. Therefore, only by reaching the warning water level in advance can we expand the income, and it is good to sell it at the highest price, but it will also be on the verge of great risks!
It is true that the price of pigs has been high this year because of the continuous shortage of supply. Generally, there is a set of slaughter planning for self-cultivation. For professional fertilisers, when the soil weighs more than 300 kilograms and reaches more than 10 yuan, the flood should be discharged at an appropriate time. After all, it's money in your pocket. After all, the trend of the times, why bother about that dime? After raising the price for two days, I feel that I am losing money. In two years, I have sold the sky-high price!
It is still difficult for slaughter enterprises in the market outlook to keep prices down, and it is still difficult to alleviate the difficulty of collecting pigs.
Pig prices rose collectively. Even after the holiday, even if the enthusiasm has just passed, the pig price has maintained a steady and slight increase on the basis of the average price hitting a new high. At present, the demand for frozen meat in Beijing has weakened after the holiday, which has supported the enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises to lower prices. However, it has to be admitted that slaughtering enterprises are hovering on the edge of the problem of collecting pigs nationwide. Especially after entering May, the period of "the most shortage of pigs" caused by the epidemic will come, and it will be more difficult to acquire it, or it will be difficult to collect the price increase. Of course, due to the influence of post-holiday consumption, weather and pig price, the slaughter volume of some slaughter enterprises may decline to play a game, but the pattern of supply in short supply is difficult to change and it is very difficult to reduce prices. Therefore, the behavior of raising prices and ensuring quantity will also exist. It is expected that the short-term settlement price will rise, and it is recommended that farmers maintain a rational rhythm and not aim too high.