What are you worried about?
Worried that this round of corn gains is not only unsustainable, but may continue to fall.
As a result, the worrying thing really happened.
With the price increase of enterprises and the improvement of the weather, the amount of corn listed in Shandong has increased significantly, making the corn market enter the downward channel again.
According to our previous analysis, corn has finally returned to the threshold of 1.4 yuan/kg, and now it will face a "crisis" again.
However, as the saying goes, "Happiness lies in misfortune, and misfortune lies in misfortune." Although corn has been falling, there are two things that show that the space for corn to fall has been greatly narrowed.
1, good weather, bad weather.
The increase of corn quantity and the decrease of corn price are mainly caused by the weather.
Continuous rainfall in Shandong and North China makes it more difficult to preserve dry food, so it is easy to increase the amount of corn when the weather improves.
But on the other hand, the rain will continue and will continue to affect the quantity, and the reduction of the quantity also means that it is difficult for corn prices to continue to fall.
Therefore, the overall trend of corn is still volatile.
Recently, the rice trade has been depressed, and the auction has increased.
This year, the price of wheat has gone far, and it has largely withdrawn from substitution, so it is rice that competes with corn in the breeding field.
Recently, the rice transaction has been sluggish and the auction has been increasing. It is speculated that the reason is the price factor on the one hand and the decline of corn on the other.
Because corn prices continue to fall, the mentality of enterprises has changed, and the wait-and-see mood has become stronger.
With the increase of rice flow, demand "gave way" and corn demand began to return.
Combining the above two points, it can be inferred that although the driving force for corn to rise is weak, the space for falling is also limited.
Recently, or before the corn went on the market last autumn, the high probability has been showing this trend of weak shock, but this does not mean that corn has no chance, because corn has reached the most critical time.
Output the first key.
Among many factors affecting corn, the most important one is the yield of new season corn.
Corn is the largest crop in China, and the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region are important corn producing areas, accounting for about 40% of the total corn output in China. It can be said that the changes of corn in these three provinces and one area will play a decisive role in the trend of corn.
It has been raining continuously in Northeast China this year, from June to July, and from July to August, especially in Liaoning. Due to the continuous rainstorm, farmland waterlogging is serious in many places.
This is the critical period of corn growth, which is likely to affect the growth of corn, and then affect the yield of corn.
According to the increase and decrease trend of average yield of maize in major producing provinces in 2022 compared with 202 1, the average yield of maize in new season in Liaoning will decrease, which means that the trend of maize yield reduction in Liaoning will increase.
The second key is the trend change.
Although the current corn continues to fall, as the weather turns cold, domestic pig breeding is expected to usher in an inflection point, which in turn will stimulate the demand for feed and corn.
And the increase in demand is enough to reverse the whole trend.
On the other hand, international food prices have also ushered in a key trend.
Although Ukraine's grain exports are recovering, corn production in most parts of Europe has been affected by extreme drought, and corn production may hit a new low of 15.
Moreover, European corn futures prices rarely exceed wheat prices, which means that the potential of corn still exists, and once the international corn rises, it will once again boost domestic sentiment.
The third key is the change of weather.
The closer the harvest is, the more critical the weather is.
There are countless examples of this. For example, this was the case with domestic wheat last year, as was the case with European wheat, which also suffered from heavy rains and floods near the harvest period, thus reversing the wheat market.
Agriculture is an industry that depends on the weather, especially in the past two years, extreme weather has occurred frequently, and agriculture is the first to be affected.
Part of the market for crops is in people, and the other part is in the sky.
So in this way, the decline of corn at this time is not enough to fear. Next, we should closely collect the changes in the above three aspects, because they will determine the next trend of corn.