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Will potash fertilizer affect urea futures?
The May Day Golden Week is coming, and many people are very excited. This season is sunny and mild, which is a good weather for traveling.

0 1, oil price "rises before the holiday"

Before the holiday, oil prices will "rise every festival", and now it is no exception. With the May Day holiday approaching, oil prices will rise again.

However, the higher oil price in China is actually influenced by the rebound of international crude oil prices.

In recent days, the international crude oil price fluctuates obviously and is at a high level. For example, crude oil fell by 4% on 25th and rose by more than 3% on 26th.

Due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, international oil prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall. In particular, Russia stopped supplying natural gas to Poland, which caused the European natural gas market to soar by nearly 30%, and the price of crude oil rose from 100 to 105.

Relevant data show that the daily output of crude oil in the United States is 110.9 million barrels, more than last year110,000 barrels per day.

Although the daily output has increased greatly, the oil reserves have decreased.

For example, last week, the inventory of commercial crude oil in the United States was 41440,000 barrels, 700,000 barrels more than last month, but the inventory was lower than the expected 2 million barrels, which was at a low level in 20 years.

Of course, on April 28th, Brent crude oil futures contract price fell to $65,438 +002.95, a decrease of1.91%; Shanghai crude oil futures quoted 640.9 yuan, down 2.29%.

However, this still can't stop the rising pace of domestic refined oil prices, and this increase will be the "seventh increase" during the year.

According to the document notice of the National Development and Reform Commission, starting from 0: 00 on April 29th, gasoline will be raised by 205 yuan/ton, and diesel will be raised by 200 yuan/ton.

As a result, converted into 92 # gasoline, 95 # gasoline and 0. 17 yuan/liter, and 0. 17 yuan/liter, respectively.

After this increase, the owner's refueling cost will be raised. For example, for an ordinary 50L private car fuel tank, it will cost 8 yuan more to fill a barrel of oil after price adjustment; A large-scale logistics transport vehicle with a full load of 50 tons will increase the fuel cost of 6.8 yuan every100km.

After this increase, the No.95 gasoline in some areas returned to the 9 yuan era, such as 9.0 1-9.06 yuan /L in Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan, and 9.7 yuan /L in Tibet.

With the May Day holiday approaching, the travel cost of car owners will increase. However, because the traffic in some areas has not been restored, some cities have implemented the "3+ 1 1" policy. Car owners should do their homework in advance before going out to avoid a trip in vain.

02. Farmer: As diesel oil goes up, chemical fertilizer is more expensive to use.

The rise of refined oil will not only affect the travel of the majority of car owners, but also have a great impact on the agricultural sector.

You know, farmers need all kinds of agricultural vehicles in agricultural production, such as tractors, rotary cultivators, trucks and so on. Now it is in the golden stage of agricultural production, and the price of diesel oil has risen to 8 yuan/liter, which naturally makes the production cost of farmers soar.

However, what farmers can't complain most is that the price of fertilizer has risen sharply now, and all kinds of commercial fertilizers are too expensive to use. I don't know what to do.

In fact, as early as the beginning of the year, the price of urea continued to rise. At the beginning of 65438+ 10, the spot price was 2520 yuan/ton, and now it has generally risen to more than 3000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 19.05%.

Judging from today's quotation, Shandong generally rose by 20-40 yuan, and the mainstream price was 2920-30 10 yuan/ton; 30 yuan rose in Henan, and the mainstream price was 3000-3030 yuan/ton; Hebei rose by 20-30 yuan, and the price was 3,000-3,050 yuan/ton; Anhui has increased 20 yuan, with an ex-factory price of 3050-3070 yuan/ton; Guangdong rose by 20-30 yuan, with an offer of 3150-3,200 yuan/ton; 30 yuan rose, with an ex-factory price of 3080-3 150 yuan/ton.

The increase of urea is not only influenced by the international market, but also due to the continuous decline of China's stocks.

In February, the total inventory of urea was 872,700 tons, and now it has dropped to 4 1.92 million tons, a decrease of 5 1.97%.

The decrease in inventory is mainly related to the high demand for fertilizer for spring farming. At present, the production and sales rate of urea is almost 100%, and the advance order of enterprises has been advanced to 7- 15 days, which shows how tight the demand for urea is.

The same is true of the prices of other fertilizers, such as diammonium phosphate, which has risen to 3,950 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 1000 yuan/ton from previous years. Potassium sulfate also rose to 5000-5500 yuan/ton, mainly because potash fertilizer relied on imports, and the international potash fertilizer price soared, which led to the skyrocketing domestic potash fertilizer price.

Today, the global fertilizer market is soaring. Since last year, urea surged 148%, diammonium phosphate surged 90%, international ammonia surged 220%, and potassium chloride surged 198%.

With the rise of the international fertilizer market, the fertilizer cost of farmers is also rising.

At present, farmers in many countries have adjusted their planting structure, such as increasing the planting area of soybeans and reducing the planting area of corn with less fertilizer.

Many farmers have begun to make their own fertilizers and use traditional fermented farmyard manure for fertilization.

But farmers don't have to worry. 1 Here comes the good news! China has been regulating and controlling the price of chemical fertilizer to keep it within a stable range. Since March, the state has put in 6 million tons of reserve chemical fertilizer and 1 10,000 tons of potash fertilizer, thus easing the market pressure and stabilizing the price of chemical fertilizer. It is believed that the price of fertilizer will fall again soon.