Cyclical plate refers to the periodic rise or fall of stock price with economic development, which is divided into procyclical and countercyclical. For example, pro-cyclical, that is, when the economy is developing well, the stock price will rise, and when the economy is not good, it will also fall.
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Strong cycle plate: the stock plate with strong cycle in the industry. Whenever the market rebounds, its rebound height is one of the most concerned topics in the market. If we can grasp the law of industry rotation, we can undoubtedly achieve excess returns far beyond the broader market.
Therefore, according to industry practice, we divide the 23 first-class industries in Shenwan into four categories, among which mining, real estate, transportation equipment, non-ferrous metals, financial services and ferrous metals belong to strong cycle sectors. Through the statistics of several large-scale rebounds since the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 1664, we found the laws between the rotations of several industries:
First, in the large-scale rebound market, the strong cycle plate needs a strong rebound. In the recent rebound from 26 10, this feature is not obvious, so this low point has also been broken;
Second, in the previous decline process, both the top decline and the bottom decline will lead the market in the early stage of the rebound;
Third, in the process of market decline, generally strong cyclical plates tend to fall ahead, and non-cyclical plates tend to fall behind, and vice versa. And the bigger the market, the more obvious this feature is.
According to the market situation, since the Shanghai Composite Index was adjusted to 3067 points in April 1 1, the sectors with the highest decline are insurance, railway infrastructure, steel, brokerage, futures, transportation and logistics, etc. , have dropped by more than 20%. From the perspective of industry ownership, they all belong to a strong cyclical sector. Since the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded to 2473 points on August 9, the top gainers are brewing food, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, computers and tourist hotels, and most of them belong to the defensive aperiodic sector.