When we are doing futures, because it is a two-way transaction, various factors are superimposed, resulting in countless possibilities. The size, source and service life of funds are the primary factors affecting mentality. In fact, all kinds of techniques that traders study hard are based on mentality, which affects the cycle length and position size observed by traders. When the mentality is tense but not calm, the judgment, execution and accuracy of technology will be greatly reduced. Nothing can calm people, but make them miserable.
The reason for the loss is based on the reason. In order to achieve a stable profitability in futures trading, we must train our mentality and skills. Practice, practice is the heart, practice is the execution! Taoism, Taoism is the guidance, Taoism is the means to achieve. The same is true of futures trading. Mentality is gold, technology is silver. No theory can perfectly explain the market, because the market not only reflects policies, funds and emergencies, but also reflects the "humanity" of futures trading groups, so it is difficult to predict.
In short, learning all kinds of technologies is the first stage, and the adjustment of mentality is a higher level, and then it is to give up, give up technology, give up excited mentality, give up greed, give up rich mentality, give up impatience and so on. , finally can make a profit!
I hope it helps you!
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This question is extremely unique, but it is also very real. Anyway, I have never seen anyone who can make money steadily by technology. This is a painful experience that only belongs to the old leek: it seems to be in line with the law when it is resumed, but the prediction is wrong! Friends who haven't studied technology can skip my answer directly, and only those who have studied can understand it.
First of all, when retail investors first enter the market, there are generally two ways to make orders: the first way is to be bullish, short when thinking about falling, and long when thinking about rising when thinking about falling; Second, watch the market go up and do more, and watch the market go down and short.
No matter which method is used, it will be found wrong after a period of time, but after trying another method, it is finally found that neither method works, so I began to study various technologies. So, from a shallow pit into a deep pit.
Why is it a deep pit? Because the so-called "technology" is a bottomless pit!
Is there really technology? Can you get rich by technology? Even today, I do not agree with this statement. In my opinion, it is wishful thinking to expect to make a fortune in futures or stock market by technology. All indicators, such as moving average, MACD, KDJ, Bollinger Band and CCI, are good. No matter what you study, whether you look at an indicator alone or combine multiple indicators, you can always find a certain pattern when you re-examine, but it is not good when you use it to predict. Why?
It's simple. The technical lines of these indicators are all composed of market markers. It's like you can know where a person comes from by footprints in the snow, but you want to predict where he will go next by these footprints. Is it possible? Just like people, the market is alive. It can go east for a while and west for a while. It can take two steps, three steps back, and then ten steps. You want to predict by some so-called numbers, indicator lines and golden forks. How can it be predicted accurately?
Even if the forecast is made, do you use the half-hour chart or the 1 hour chart or the daily K? Look at the hourly line, it will go up, and look at the daily line, it will go down. What do you do? The hourly line is right today, and the daily line is right the next day. Which line will you follow the third time?
Let's talk about the so-called pressure and support, which are two words that everyone hears more.
I can say so, as long as the pressure and support are perfunctory. The so-called pressure level is only a position that is difficult to break through in the near future or history. The so-called support is a position that is difficult to go down in the near future or in history. It seems very useful. Compared with every time I come here, I can't get up or down. Just press this button, and it's simple. Is there a problem?
There is a big problem! If pressure and support are useful, what is a broken position? Where do the new highs and lows come from?
Set a stop loss according to the support pressure, and you may go back immediately after breaking the position, leaving you with a collapsed face, and there is not much to sweep accurately. Is pressure support useful? As a simple reference is ok, just don't blindly follow.
All technical aspects can only be used as reference. The market is alive, unlike math problems. No formula can be invincible, and no one hundred formulas can be invincible. It's not about the formula at all. Trying to make a profit through technology is logically lazy to take shortcuts from the bottom. People who take shortcuts may be quick for a while, but sooner or later they will suffer big losses.
This is why most people still lose money after studying various technologies, because technology itself is a bottomless pit. No matter how hard you study, you can't get through. You can't guess, there are countless possibilities. If the technology is useful, mathematicians should be able to earn tens of billions from the futures market every year, right?
Some people say that if technology is useless, why can anyone make a steady profit? Buffett still achieved wealth freedom through investment?
This is actually another topic. Here is a brief talk, let the leeks who learn technology give up as soon as possible.
Because people who are stable and profitable, Buffett, are not looking at technology, but fundamentals! Whether it's stocks or futures, if you want to buy a company or buy more goods, you should study the company, whether there are loopholes, the relationship between supply and demand of goods, future expectations, and even the mentality of the main force. These are the general directions. Take a good look. No matter how it fluctuates, the future must be in your hands. All losses are just floating losses.
Of course, this involves short-term and long-term, and different situations have different operational ideas. The core of investment is the price of investment products. The price is determined by supply and demand. From here, we can extend it to value and expectation, and then refer to a little technology to carry out specific operations, so as to truly achieve no loss or gain.
Any success is not accidental. Luck does not exist. If there is, someone must have suffered for you.
Believe in wisdom, not blindly follow technology.
Continue to love, continue to learn, continue to learn, and use it on the right path to learn something and gain something.
Above, and your encouragement.
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First of all, the most important thing is to make sure that the technology you study is effective. If it can't stand the test of the market, it's useless to learn more and longer!
Secondly, your execution, with reliable technology, must be strictly in accordance with the technology to trade, otherwise, it is equal to no technology.
The best and most important thing is mentality. A bad attitude will directly affect your execution, and then affect your transaction, so that your technology will fail!
Because most people just learn technology, not training technology!
It's like a soldier studying gun performance and shooting skills every day, but never practicing shooting. What's the use on the battlefield?
Learning technology is a period of time that futures entry must go through, and it is also in the process of learning various technologies that we constantly find a highly tacit operating principle with ourselves.
It's like trying all kinds of guns on the battlefield in order to find a handy weapon, but in order to win the battle, it's absolutely not enough to just study weapons.
If futures want to make money, they need to improve their cognition a little. The subjective trading of futures is more your own judgment, but we don't know right or wrong. Many people think that if the technology is good, there will be no loss, or there is basically no stop loss. This kind of cognition is wrong. After all, it is unknown. Even if the winning rate is 99%, there is still a small probability event of 1%. So there is no absolute right or wrong in the futures market. We should admit our mistakes and not compete with the market. We must also be aware of the technical deficiencies. The technology you learn can only make money when the market has such a signal, and other times it is waiting time. No technology can capture all markets, let alone unilateral and volatile ideas. Sticking to an operation until the end can make money. The more extreme the idea, the less satisfactory the result.
When you do futures, you should think more about the negative impact of your shortcomings on your operation. Studying one's own humanity can bring about qualitative change more than studying the market.
Technology is always the last consideration!
Please trust your feelings about the market.
Be awed by the market,
Have insight into the market.
The feeling comes from long-term operation.
Awe is everyone's business principle.
Insight is innate.
As for technology, it's a bluff.
Technical analysis is like a friend telling you that he has a secret to pick up girls. As long as you study hard, you can catch up with any girl you like. Boys pursue girls not only by their innate looks, height, personality, family background, but also by their fate with this girl. Even when Andy Lau was at his peak, he couldn't tell which girl he wanted to catch up with.
Therefore, it is impossible to make a stable profit by technical analysis. The ancients said that life and death are rich in heaven, and wealth is in heaven. You can make a steady profit through technical analysis. Isn't this fate?
Every time I answer this question, I sometimes want to make a long speech. Let me briefly talk about it here. First of all, let me give an unfortunate example. Why do the same teachers teach, some students get good grades and some students get poor grades? I believe in this analogy. Look. First of all, just because you study all kinds of technologies hard doesn't mean that you are really proficient, so you may belong to the blind, and belong to many technologies that know a little but are not proficient. So, you'd better do the actual transaction.
Second: Even if you learn useful skills, can you persist? There is an impetuous atmosphere in this market now. As long as other people's analysis is wrong several times, or what technology you have learned fails several times in the transaction, then you will completely deny what you have learned. This is the performance of people who don't understand the market. Because of the technology you have learned in the market, you not only enjoy the joy of making profits, but also bear the helplessness of making mistakes.
Third: Does the research technology and information of this market have any effect on market analysis? This is a matter of different opinions. Logically, it is impossible to falsify. Since it is impossible to falsify, it can only be logically said that both technical analysis and fundamental analysis are flawed, but it cannot be said that some methods are absolutely effective. So relying solely on technology or fundamentals is not enough to make us profitable. Here we may say from a dialectical point of view that both fundamentals and technical aspects need to be studied.
Fourth, the financial market, especially foreign exchange futures, is originally a market where most people lose money. This is no different from the nature of the stock market, but after all, the uncertainty of this market gives people opportunities, and there are many opportunities, depending on whether they can seize it once.
I think there are two main reasons why I still lose money after learning a lot of futures speculation techniques:
Take the right approach
Although technology is very important in futures trading. But the most important thing is not technology. I think the most important thing for short-term trading full of uncertainty is that the concept is correct. Only when you have a deeper understanding of the nature of the market and the futures market can your futures returns be higher.
What is the right idea?
For example, there are three concepts that must be clear.
1 The transaction is trial and error.
Every transaction must have a trial-and-error attitude, so that the transaction can be good. Because this is a correct trading concept.
2 trading should make big profits and small losses.
What matters in trading is not the success rate, but the profit-loss ratio. Only with a good profit-loss ratio can we finally make money.
3 fund management is more important than technology
Futures trading should put capital management in an important position, otherwise, no amount of money will be lost.
Second, the lack of talent.
The same trading technology, the same fund management, the same teacher, but in the end, everyone's trading profit and loss are definitely different.
At that time, someone did an experiment and selected 13 people from thousands of people to do futures. But the futures returns of this 13 person are also very different. The person with the best futures performance finally wrote a book, Rules of Turtle Trading.
In addition to technology, there are differences in psychology, personality and concept between people. Some people are braver, some people are calmer, some people are profound, and some people are more sensitive. Some people's psychology and personality are obviously more suitable for futures. However, some people have great psychological or other obstacles in futures trading, and they can't even overcome these weaknesses all their lives.
In fact, the risk of futures lies not in the futures itself, but in the mentality of traders who do futures. The most real futures are only the points formed after the transaction is completed, and all the points are connected as moving averages. So only the average of each cycle is true. If the technology reaches a certain level, look at the market and don't look at the fundamentals online. The reason why we are still losing money is because the technical side has not found a good way!