Why is the price of pork rising?
From the macroeconomic perspective, this round of domestic pork is caused by the superposition of pig cycle and classical swine fever. In aquaculture, we often say that high prices of people's livelihood products hurt people and low prices hurt farmers. This means that high food prices will increase people's life pressure, and then affect their quality of life. No matter how low the food price is. Low price means that farmers or farmers will lose a lot of money, which directly affects their enthusiasm for farming. Therefore, after the gradual development of the financial market, futures, a tool to predict prices and ensure production, has been formed.
Every pig cycle is like this: the price of meat is high-the stock of fertile sows is greatly increased-the supply of live pigs is increased-the price of meat is reduced-a large number of fertile sows are eliminated-the supply of live pigs is reduced-and the price of meat is increased. If this trend is superimposed with the virulent swine fever when the meat price is high, it will undoubtedly aggravate the rise of pig price. It is also obvious that swine fever will also cause farmers to be unwilling to breed, because if swine fever is transmitted to pigs, pigs will die, which is undoubtedly a waste of people and money.
I remember reading an article in the early stage that the current pig raising method is three-layer isolation, closed farming and large-scale pig raising workshops, all of which are used to avoid the inflow of classical swine fever virus. And these, the average farmers in rural areas are unable to buy this series of equipment, so this further reduces the supply source of pork.
And as early as 20 15, some substandard small pig farms were shut down. Through comprehensive management in recent years, some farmers who are not up to standard and are not large enough, as well as farmers in non-breeding areas, have been banned from breeding, resulting in the elimination of some production capacity and the reduction of the total number of live pigs, which is also a factor leading to the current shortage of live pigs.
Internationally, almost all countries are suffering from swine fever, and only the United States has avoided it. Therefore, not long ago, an analysis article pointed out that the United States pushed up the inflation level around the world by developing the swine fever virus, thus helping it achieve a trade war. According to the current international level, it is difficult to find a new pork supplier in a short time. With the prevalence of classical swine fever virus, many original pork exporting countries also lack pork.
Generally speaking, there is a proportion between the supply and demand of pork, that is, the supply decreases 1% and the price increases by 7%. At present, African swine fever vaccine has made great progress, and frozen meat has also begun to be supplied. With the intervention of administrative power, the price of pork may not rise too much, because there are many substitutes for pork, such as beef, mutton and chicken.