Yesterday, the collapse of the photovoltaic leader Tongwei shares continued to ferment, and the panic spread to the entire photovoltaic sector. Silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, modules and even photovoltaic glass have not been spared. Among them, Sunshine Power fell more than 15%, Goodway fell more than 14%, Longji shares fell nearly 9%, and many stocks fell. The general decline is not limited to the photovoltaic sector, and the wind power sector has also suffered heavy losses. Wind power shares Longyuan Power fell more than 8%, and Goldwind Technology fell nearly 5%.
Tongwei shares fell again, sealing the down limit. Compared with the historical peak of 55.5 yuan set by 10 in February, its share price has fallen by more than 30%, and its market value has evaporated by 36.2 billion yuan in two days. In addition, Tongwei shares traded 9.75 billion yuan throughout the day, the highest turnover in the history of the stock.
In this regard, netizens joked:
Some people point to the new energy grid-connected policy recently released by the National Energy Administration for the reasons for the sharp drop of photovoltaic and wind power sectors. The industry believes that the release of this policy means that photovoltaic and wind power projects will not be unrestricted access.
The Notice on Matters Related to the Development and Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation in 20021year (Draft for Comment) clearly states that in 20021year, the National Energy Administration will use the non-water renewable energy consumption responsibility weight (hereinafter referred to as the non-water weight) to guide the annual new grid-connected scale of each province, and no specific indicators will be issued; According to the non-water weight, the provincial energy authorities independently calculate the annual installed scale of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and reasonably determine the new grid-connected scale and new batch (filing) scale of wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects in the region in 20021year. In addition, it is mentioned that in 20021year, the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the total social electricity consumption reached about 1 1%.
According to public data, in 2020, the cumulative power generation of wind power and solar energy in China will reach 727 billion kWh, and the electricity consumption of the whole society will be 7.511100 million kWh, accounting for about 9.7%. This means that the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will increase by about 1.3 percentage points in 20021year. Based on this, the market speculates that the installed capacity of wind power photovoltaic grid-connected this year may be around 1. 1 100 million kilowatts.
In this regard, pengpeng, Secretary-General of China New Energy Power Investment and Financing Alliance, said in an interview that the new installed capacity of 202 1 is mainly affected by a series of factors such as market size and equipment price. It is estimated that the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic in 20021year will be about 80-90 GW (30 GW for wind power and 60 GW for photovoltaic).
Based on this latest policy, SOLARZOOM think tank believes that the 2020 bidding projects, 20 19 parity projects, 2020 parity projects and 2020 bidding-to-parity projects that were not implemented in the first half of 20021will all be included in the guaranteed grid-connected scale of 20021.
However, the 2020 parity project that was not implemented in the first half of 20021and has not been implemented by the end of 20021will no longer be included in the scale of parity grid connection. According to the calculation, the scale of the above-mentioned projects is close to 60GW, which constitutes the main source of new installed capacity in China in 20021year. There is a high probability that these projects will eventually be implemented, provided that the price of parts cannot be too high.
Analysts said that the release of the document is mainly to clarify the grid-connected rules, and photovoltaic and wind power projects will not enter without restrictions.
BOC International said that it expected the market to react negatively to the exposure draft because it was worried about the growth of new energy operators and the decline in the return rate of new and old projects.
In addition, some insiders said:
Of course, there are also views that the photovoltaic industry has no obvious disadvantages.
For photovoltaic and polysilicon in the new energy industry, Huaan Securities holds that as the most upstream of the photovoltaic industry, mainstream countries in the world have shown a positive attitude towards new energy in the short to medium term. This year, as the first year of the "14 th Five-Year Plan", the industry demand will usher in an outbreak; In the long run, the cost of photovoltaic will be lower and lower, the yield of power stations will be higher and higher, and the demand will be greater and greater. At present, under the condition of relatively low photovoltaic, there is huge room for future growth. It is predicted that by 2050, the average annual growth rate of photovoltaic industry will be around 10%, and the demand for silicon materials will increase accordingly.
The research view of Huatai Futures holds that the market is extremely optimistic about the prospect of photovoltaic sector under the current situation of emission reduction, carbon neutrality and continuous speculation. But a series of "black swan events" in history still remind us that we need to be vigilant at all times.
It is not difficult to see that most of the photovoltaic and new energy stocks that fell sharply this time are institutional heavyweights.
Take Tongwei shares, which plunged for two consecutive days, as an example. According to the data, as of February 8, 2020, the top ten shareholders of the company include Public Offering of Fund, insurance products and trust plans in addition to Tongwei Group, the largest shareholder. Among the top ten shareholders, the fund products of Guangfa Fund occupy five seats, including Guangfa Technology Pioneer, Guangfa Twin Engine Upgrade, Guangfa Small-cap Growth, Guangfa Innovation Upgrade and Guangfa Diversified Emerging Fund.
Longji shares are favored by institutions. According to the data at the end of the third quarter of 2020, in addition to Huijin Asset Management, GF Fund also holds two fund products.
Some analysts believe that the photovoltaic sector has fallen collectively, or it is related to institutional shipments, especially institutions with large photovoltaic positions. The data shows that the seats of the three institutions sold Tongwei shares171200 million yuan in total yesterday.
Open source securities believes that this is a style change after the rebound.
Open source securities predicts that the market has begun to rebalance growth/value, and the relationship between big market and small market. From the perspective of industry, low-valued sectors such as steel, banking, chemical industry and real estate have made some gains in the process of maintaining the origin of the Shanghai Composite Index. Comparatively speaking, national defense new energy, food and beverage, household appliances and electric equipment have been far below the position at that time.