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You will lose all the bets: people are more unpredictable than monkeys.
? Net name "Perfect", a native of Shanghai, entered the stock market in 2003 and engaged in futures trading for 9 years, mainly engaged in commodity futures and stock index futures, running band trading on stock index, long-term trend trading in commodity operation, fundamental analysis plus volatility analysis to select trading varieties, strict programmed automatic operation concept, and various trading systems such as multi-commodity hedging arbitrage model with shock trend. ?

Futures is Mr. Gong's greatest hobby. He likes to push his limits. He thinks that challenging human weakness is the most difficult thing in the world. Only by overcoming his own weaknesses can he create Excellence. The futures market is a human market. If we want to beat others in this market, we must be different from most people, such as no fear, no greed and extraordinary perseverance. Mr. Gong pursues perfection. For him, he just needs to be perfect in his heart. The so-called perfection in his mind is to always implement his own strategy, never judge the market, and always evolve with the market. Mr. Gong has never participated in any competition. He believes that some participating investors may give up the aggressive trading strategy of risk control for ranking, which is almost equal to gambling. Participating in the competition does not conform to his trading philosophy, because he has always maintained the style of safety first and earning second, hoping that he will be a long-distance running champion instead of a sprint champion.

When I first started to do futures, I operated with a gambling mentality. Because I just entered the futures market and don't understand the market, I basically do it for every variety. As a result, because I didn't understand the fundamentals of varieties and trusted my own judgment too much, I suffered a huge loss of 50%. Although I keep summing up my studies, no matter how he operates, most of the results are losses. Later, Mr. Gong went to attend a futures training class, and the funds became less and less. Repeated losses are also constantly educating him, "I save myself three times a day", and the facts tell him that he can no longer use the gambling mentality to make futures. It is also a way for him to remind himself from time to time to name his account "every gambling will lose"; In this process, we gradually got rid of the weakness of human nature, established our own trading system and fund management system, constantly honed our mentality, and embarked on a stable road to profit. However, overcoming the weakness of human nature is inseparable from Mr. Gong's own personality. He is patient, persistent and studious, and he is also a music HI-FI lover. He likes classical music. When he is tired of trading, he will play music to relax himself. Sometimes he will listen to music to calm himself down when he encounters losses and it is difficult to persist. Especially when encountering great difficulties, Mr. Gong will choose to hit it in the middle of the night.

Teacher Gong mainly focuses on stock index futures. Although the state has imposed a position limit of "10 lot" on the stock index, it is still operating, because the volatility of the stock index meets the requirements of his model, and the volatility is the basis of profit. He believes that the commodity market is very weak and the volatility is generally poor, which is not suitable for trading. Although the state has restricted the position of the stock index, the fluctuation is still very large, so it basically does not affect his operation of the stock index, but in the transaction. Teacher Gong mainly deals in mid-band stock index trading. Because he has been a stock trader for many years, he is familiar with the basic characteristics of the market. Mr. Gong said: "I have no ability to break the ups and downs because I can't judge. I judge strength, strength is much, weakness is empty. If it is wrong, then stop loss! " .

"Many people spent 10 years studying and judging the futures market. In the short term, some people can judge the market, but if you extend the survey time by 3-5 years, you will find that almost no one in the market can predict more than a monkey. " This is Teacher Gong's understanding of the futures market. He was also exposed to various theories and fascinated by them, looking for the holy grail to beat the market, from Gann's research to Eliot's indicators. The futures market is basically unpredictable. Compared with the monkey's random guess, the winning rate is basically the same, or even lower, because people's emotionalization will disrupt the original average probability, and eventually it will be far below 50%.