Besides pork and eggs, edible oil is also indispensable in daily life. Unfortunately, edible oil has not escaped from the cycle of soaring prices, and the increase is even higher than that of stocks.
According to the national development and reform commission, at present, China's edible vegetable oil has a large inventory and sufficient supply. Is it the price increase caused by the hoarding of oil by merchants or the skyrocketing price of raw materials? After a series of investigations. The reporter found that the biggest reason for the rise in oil prices actually came from a quiet international battle for soybean pricing power. Food accounts for more than 30% of the weight of CPI, and the rise in oil prices directly drives CPI to rise. Therefore, as one of CPI surveys, the fluctuation of edible oil prices has attracted the attention of journalists.
According to the survey, in June 2007165438+1the first week of October, the wholesale price of 5L Hu Jihua Texiang pressed peanut oil increased by 8%, and the price was 1 10 yuan. 5L Arowana blended oil rose from 56 yuan to 60 yuan, 5L Eagle corn oil rose from 60 yuan to 65 yuan, and 5L Arowana corn oil rose from 68 yuan to 70 yuan. 5L Hu Jihua pressed first-class peanut oil rose from 88 yuan to 95 yuan, 5L Hu Jihua Texiang pressed first-class peanut oil rose to 130 yuan/bottle, an increase of nearly 50%. Among many edible oil varieties, peanut oil, vegetable oil and soybean oil have been accepted by the general public, and the sales of soybean oil account for 60% of all oil sales. Therefore, the reporter took the increase of soybeans as a sample. The reason for this overall price increase without soybean pricing power mainly comes from the rise of oil prices, and why do the prices of peanuts, corn and soybeans, as oil crops, increase so much? An industry insider familiar with soybeans said, "The' Soybean War' broke out between China and the United States three years ago, which caused the soybean planting area in China to shrink sharply. Later, internationally, we lost the pricing power of soybeans. "
From the second half of 200 1 to 2003, driven by American CBOT market, the soybean contract of Dalian Futures Exchange started around 1700 yuan. In August 2003, due to the dry weather in the soybean producing areas in the United States, the monthly supply and demand report of the US Department of Agriculture was released, which contributed to the soybean situation. In the last rising stage from the beginning of 2004 to April 5, the US market touched near 60 yuan.
At this time, just as the White House imposed restrictions on China's textiles, in order to ease Sino-US economic and trade relations, China sent an agricultural product procurement delegation to the United States to purchase 6.5438+0.5 million tons of soybeans. At that time, the delegation of China signed the order at a price of about 465,438+000 yuan/ton. However, a month later, the soybean price fell to 3 100 yuan/ton.
"At that time, due to poor information and lack of international trade experience, China unilaterally listened to the false research report released by the United States, thus eating a lot of soybeans at a high price on the eve of the sharp drop in international soybean prices." Tian, general manager of Heilongjiang Jiusan Oil Co., Ltd. said. At this time, a large number of American soybeans poured in, and soybean prices continued to plummet. Shandong's processing enterprises that rely on imported soybeans are almost wiped out, and the domestic planting industry has also been hit hard. The soybean planting area in Heilongjiang, the main producing area, decreased by 25% in 2006 and 6 million mu in 2007 compared with 2006, and the total output decreased from 654.38+0.3 billion Jin to 9.2 billion Jin.
The planting area has fallen sharply year after year, which has set off a new round of theme speculation, and the price of beans has risen again, which has also deepened the dependence of the domestic market on imports. The oilseed magazine oilworld165438+128 October published a report predicting that the soybean import of China will increase from 28.72 million tons in 2006/2007 to 34 million tons in 2007/2008, so as to make up for the gap between supply and demand caused by the loss of domestic production and curb the high domestic soybean price.
"Three years ago, Americans paid high prices for soybeans in China, which made you plummet for three years, causing your planting area to shrink. Now Americans are taking advantage of the situation to push you to eat high, and then let you plummet. We may have been played by others. " An analyst who has observed the soybean market for three years said.
Soybean crisis leads to "industrial theft"
Most of the original soybean processing enterprises in China are located near the main soybean producing areas in Northeast China. With China's entry into WTO, the soybean market is open. But when cheap imported soybeans flood in, these domestic soybean processing enterprises are at a disadvantage, because the oil yield of domestic soybeans is 2-3 percentage points lower than that of imported soybeans, and the cost is higher than that of mechanized planting in the United States. In order to get rid of the predicament, processors have come to the sales areas of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, relying on ports to build factories and turning to processing imported soybeans. While the soybean crushing capacity in China has expanded greatly, the overall soybean production level in the world is in a downward cycle, and many crushing enterprises compete for raw materials, which aggravates the loss of pricing power.
Due to the lack of right to speak in the international soybean futures market, domestic soybean prices always change with the change of international prices. Although international soybean prices have hit record highs this year, domestic soybean production has fallen sharply. However, soybean farmers lost confidence in planting soybeans, and the planting area was greatly reduced. In 2006, the soybean planting area in Heilongjiang decreased by 25% compared with that in 2005, and in 2007 it decreased by 665,438+10,000 mu, with a decrease of 12%.
As the raw material of soybean oil, the price of soybean oil rises and falls with the international price, and its fluctuation reaction will inevitably radiate to the edible oil field in China. Therefore, judging from the continuous rise of oil prices in China this year, the direct reason is: the loss of international pricing power!
The national oil reserve is a double-edged sword
Soybean oil used to be a hot commodity in northern supermarkets because it was much cheaper than peanut oil. But among peanut oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil, the quantity of soybean oil is the first.
In the whole oil crop, the shrinking of production scale in recent years is one of the important factors. In 2006, the oil planting area in China decreased by 10 million mu compared with the previous year, and in 2007 it decreased by 10 million mu compared with 2006. With the increase of domestic demand, the oil self-sufficiency rate is low, only over 40%. So in 2007, the price of soybean rose, and so did the prices of other edible oils.
In order to stabilize the rising price of edible oil, the national grain department put the national reserve oil on the market for the first time in September 2007 in the form of bidding. The total amount put into the country reached 200,000 tons, including soybean oil1780,000 tons and rapeseed oil 22,000 tons. General Manager Chen, the head of the South China Grain Trading Center as a sub-venue, admitted to the reporter that the purpose of opening up grain reserves is to basically balance the relationship between supply and demand, hoping to control the rise of oil prices, but such an approach will not have much effect on stabilizing prices.
On September 28th, 2007, oil merchants from some southern provinces gathered at the venue of South China Grain Trading Center. At that time, the starting prices of soybean oil in Chaohu, Suzhou and Dongguan all ranged from 8 150 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton. A starting unit is usually about 1000 tons. Liu Jingli, the reserve department in charge of the auction, is actually affirming this practice of the country: "This is the first time that the country has publicly sold the national oil reserve! Moreover, the bidding enterprises are all edible oil processing enterprises. After winning the bid, they must promise to put competitive edible oil on the market within one month. In this way, the gap in the market is relatively small, and the price is naturally low. "
Chen Qiao, who came from Xiamen to bid, is working for an edible oil company. In his eyes, this is actually not a business opportunity to do good for the market. "International soybean (price) has been rising, and the market outlook is also bullish. With such a batch of oil coming down, the burden of handling is of course small! " According to Chen Qiao, in fact, most of the bidders are edible oil processing enterprises, and there are also some large edible oil brand manufacturers, such as Arowana in the south and Lu Hua in the north. In his view, such a bidding meeting is actually a feast to reduce the risk of enterprises. "The main reason is that this price (bid price) is lower than the market price. At the same time, the expectation of bullish market outlook is very strong. " As to whether the national reserve oil can be sold publicly to stabilize the rising price of edible oil, Chen Qiao's answer is straightforward: "No". At this time, the starting price of soybean oil directly under the central government in Suzhou is 85 10 yuan/ton. Usually the starting price will be around 9000 yuan/ton.
Hu Feng, a researcher in charge of studying the grain industry in China, agrees with this view. Because there is not much seasonal difference in edible oil, the overall demand is growing steadily. Bidding for State Oil Storage only reduces the risk of enterprises, and oil enterprises will not sell this batch of oil at a reduced price, especially when the market outlook is bullish.
As of February 27th, 2007, the price of soybean oil in China was stable at 1 10,000 yuan/ton. The price in Shenyang reached 1 1700 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price in Guangzhou also reached 1 1800 yuan/ton. The prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Zhangjiagang and Xiamen are all around1100 ~12000 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous day (12.26), the price in Shenyang has increased by 200 yuan/ton, the price in Guangzhou has also increased by 400 yuan/ton, and the national price has increased by 400~500 yuan/ton. Compared with the bidding at the end of September 2007, the price per ton has exceeded 2000 yuan.