As long as the stocks in your hands are not the ones that caused the crash this time, the main forces are large-scale shipments of some financial, real estate, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and some over-hyped Olympic, agricultural, sugar-alkali price-rising stocks. And junk stocks are safe, so don’t panic for the time being.

The recession in the U.S. economy will definitely have a negative impact on the Chinese economy, but it is not fatal, because the Chinese government signed a series of large orders and economic cooperation agreements with France and the United Kingdom in the early stage, and there are *** same Efforts should be made to expand mutual economic ties, reduce dependence on the U.S. economy, and reduce the impact on the Chinese economy. The real factor that determines the future of the Chinese stock market is the Chinese economy. As long as the Chinese economy continues to maintain rapid development, the bull market in the Chinese stock market will not That's it. Changes at the economic level will bring about changes at the political level. The recession of the United States has created an opportunity for China to accelerate its overtaking of the United States. It’s a rare occurrence in a century.

The surge in the market that day was amplified. The news that the state opened up two funds with nearly 12 billion shares became the lead for the surge that day, attracting "some" of the funds that had been watching from the sidelines some time ago. Intervention has formed a big red market, and many of the funds on the sidelines are hot money. The characteristics of hot money are fast in and fast out, which is an unstable factor for the market outlook. If Shanghai can break through the suppression of 4619 points, it will be bullish on 5130 points. Opportunity, if it can even break through 5130 points, it will be confirmed that it is a real reversal. Only then will more funds be attracted into the market, pushing the stock market to hit 5500 points, an area with heavy hold-ups. Only when it breaks through 5,500 points in this area can the big market trend really appear. It is recommended that the layout focus on stocks with good performance. This wave of market may be dominated by performance waves (similar situations have happened in the past). Since OTC funds are only partially involved now, when OTC funds intervene on a large scale, the market situation in 2008 will naturally occur. The situation in Shenzhen is better than that of the Shanghai stock market. Shenzhen breaks through the suppression of 16615 points. If the market outlook can continue to maintain this upward trend, please pay attention to the point near 17810 when going higher. If it can break through, it will enter the upward channel and reverse the recent decline in one fell swoop. If the market cannot break through the pressure point, please avoid short-term risks. The negative psychological impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis on investors may continue to spread. U.S. stocks fell across the board in late trading on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by more than 100. Concerns about economic growth prospects have returned to the market, offsetting the positive impact of Amazon's announcement of a plan to buy back stock. More and more people are worried that the subprime mortgage problem is spreading to other forms of credit markets such as mortgage securities and auto loans, and credit card default cases are also increasing. In fact, the psychological level is the least optimistic. The U.S. stock market continues to remain depressed in the first few trading days before the market opens, which may affect the Chinese stock market in a short period of time and cause shocks to the Chinese stock market. There are short-term risks, so please operate with caution (of course, a rise in the U.S. stock market is what most people would like to see) Ideally, this will make the external situation of the Chinese stock market more optimistic, which is good for the stock market's rise after the holiday).

There was a plunge in closing before, and most stocks were hit hard again. After that, the institution once again analyzed the five major reasons that caused the stock market to plummet.

1. External factors caused the plunge: the institution believes that The slump in external stock markets led to a slump in Hong Kong stocks, which in turn implicated A-shares that also owned AH shares in a slump, forming an indirect linkage to the Chinese stock market. This reason has definitely had a negative impact on the Chinese stock market, because AH stocks are basically heavyweight stocks in China. The stock market cannot be immune to the decline of heavyweight stocks. First of all, the banking sector has been most affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. In China Take banks as an example. The company suffered direct losses of up to 7 billion yuan in the subprime mortgage crisis. The resulting national reduction of the company's loan limit by 20 billion yuan was a subsequent impact, and the deposit reserve ratio was raised again by 0.5 percentage points. According to experts It is estimated that this will directly cause the bank's performance to shrink by more than 15%, and the banking industry will be hit hard by this. However, institutional analysts have declared that this will not affect the banking industry's optimistic expectations for the market outlook. Since it does not affect the profit expectations of the financial sector, why do institutions While vigorously stabilizing retail investors to continue to hold financial stocks, the latest fund reports show that funds are shipping a large number of financial stocks. During this period of hesitation by retail investors, the main players in many financial stocks have basically sold off most of their chips, leaving only A small amount of chips. Their purpose is obvious. Retail investors are rushing to sell goods to them. How can the fund retreat so smoothly? The second most negatively affected subprime debt is the real estate sector. Recently, housing prices in some areas have fallen rapidly. The impact on the market outlook will continue to expand. Sectors related to real estate will be directly or indirectly negatively affected one after another, and the profitability of related companies will also be greatly reduced. Therefore, many real estate stocks have recently become signs of the withdrawal of major funds. This sector Generally speaking, the market outlook is not very optimistic. Secondly, companies whose exports account for the main profit channel will be directly negatively affected by the U.S. economic recession, while the steel sector, non-ferrous metal sector, electric power sector and other sectors affected by the country's negative policies have also suffered some losses recently. The stocks have shown signs of periodic shipments by the main force. As expected in the early stage, these sectors will be severely differentiated. Second- and third-tier stocks may become the target of selling by main funds because their profitability is poor. In the long term, Under the macroeconomic policies, the market may be unable to recover, and the main players are aware of it and begin to withdraw in advance.

So the sharp fall in the external stock market is only a superficial inducement. (In fact, it cannot have a fatal impact on the Chinese stock market at all. It is all caused by institutions taking advantage of the trend and exchanging shares.) Institutions keep emphasizing this reason to cover up. The real intention of exchanging their funds out.

2. Profit-taking: The latest survey shows that as many as 94% of retail investors who intervened in 2007 lost money. Where did the money go? It went into the pockets of institutions. Profit-taking is also the return of profits by institutions. In the final analysis, the reason for vomiting (exchanging shares) is the same as 1.

3. Lifting the ban on large and small non-profit companies, issuance of new shares, and refinancing: This problem can directly affect the operation of China’s stock market. Although the lifting of the ban on large and small non-profit companies has put pressure on funds, it has not yet reached the most serious level. At that time, it is not enough to have a fatal impact on the stock market, but the real time to pay attention to safety is July and December. The lifting of the ban in July will reach 14.507 billion shares, and the number of shares in December will reach 13.475 billion. The IPO issuance of new shares will indeed have a financial impact. It will cause pressure, but retail investors may be careful to avoid super large-cap stocks such as PetroChina in the later issuance of new shares. If institutions sing too good a song before listing and say they want to allocate heavy positions, then think about PetroChina. It is necessary to prevent institutions from repeating their old tricks again, and Ping An's huge refinancing is just Ping An's unilateral wish for the time being. This is more obvious from the attitude of the institutions. The large liquidation of Ping An and Life Insurance by institutions is a response to this huge financing. The market outlook will not matter This financing has been approved by the state and may not be as huge as 160 billion, but much less.

4. GEM: Objectively speaking, the GEM is basically stocks with small market capitalization, which will not have a big impact on stock market funds. Even if the impact is only on the psychological level.

5. Tightening policy: As mentioned before, tightening policy will have a great impact on the stock market, but it is directional. Some financial, real estate, non-ferrous metals, steel, petrochemical and other policies will have long-term negative effects. The stocks will indeed be greatly negatively affected, but judging from the sectors that the funds entered after the withdrawal (small and medium-sized boards, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, etc.), they have not given up on the Chinese stock market, they have just exchanged shares, because these sectors that have withdrawn only need If you pay a little attention, you can know how severely the market will be suppressed after the main force retreats. Almost all of the sectors that the main force retreats are heavyweight stocks. This is what really caused the market to plummet. And the retail investors who took the chips at high positions are at great risk. It is difficult for large-cap stocks driven by main funds to go very far by relying on retail investors.

Prudent investors should invest half of their positions in stocks with excellent performance and growth potential that have been mistakenly killed.

January and February are mainly periods of momentum and shock. The main players are busy exchanging shares and adjusting positions, and will not launch a big market trend yet. Mainly to purge retail investors, the sharp drop was also artificially caused by the main funds. Yesterday, it intensified. Retail investors have already started panic selling, and the purpose of the main funds has been achieved. As long as the main players do not have enough chips, the stock exchange is not completed, and the retail investors are not out, the big market will not happen, and some main players continue to reduce their holdings. Individual stocks ask retail investors to stop losses when the stock rises. Generally, after the main force is out, it will be difficult for the stock to do anything.

It can be said that this plunge is just a conspiracy of the main force, taking advantage of various disadvantages If there is no bad news, the main funds will have no excuse to suppress the market at will. They are also afraid of angering the government's long-cherished wish for stock market stability, and right now, global stock markets Rumors such as the sharp fall, the increase in deposit reserves, the expansion of Ping An, and the possibility of early listing of stock futures and innovative sectors have become legitimate excuses for mainstream funds to suppress the market and stocks. Anyway, the responsibility for the sharp fall in the stock market does not fall on the main force. Of course, there are many things that take the blame, but the real hands and intentions are covered up.

Since many reasons supporting the continued rise of the stock market are still there, the current fluctuations are caused by the stock exchange behavior of the main funds. There is no problem with the market price of 8,000 points in 2008. Please wait until the market reaches 8,000 points in the second half of this year. Pay attention to the risks. It is recommended to switch to half-position operations to avoid risks. February and March should be the best stage for the performance wave of many stocks with good performance expectations. When it comes to months with greater risks, April should be the most risky. The performance wave will begin to fade around that time, and the differentiation of individual stocks will rapidly increase. The long-term records of the stock market also show that April is the month that should be paid attention to. In this month, some stocks that have been overdrawn in advance should be replaced. The Olympic Games may become a watershed for the stock market, but it is not the end of the stock market. In fact, there is no end to the bull market. Worry, it is a rule that the stock market will fall when it rises. If the peak reached 8,000 in 2008, it will drop to around 5,500 after the Olympics. After a certain period of silence, the Chinese stock market will challenge new highs. As long as The rapid development of China's economy has not stopped, nor will China's stock market. When the Chinese stock market stands at a high of 20,000 points many years later, we may discover that 8,000 points is just a stopping point on the journey of the Chinese stock market.

The latest trend of the sectors that people should pay most attention to, February 12, 2008

The expectation that China's large passenger aircraft company is expected to be established before the two sessions may induce hot capital to benefit related companies Since the speculation involving hot money is relatively short-term, please pay attention to the risks.

Basically, better performance waves can be produced between February and April every year. They last longer and are the driving energy of the main wave of the market. This is similar to the theme market driven by pure hot money mentioned above. The difference is huge. Now we basically need to shift the focus of stock selection from the early short-term speculation on agriculture, Olympics, chemical fertilizers, military industry, sugar, alkali, and potassium fertilizer prices to stocks with outstanding performance in advance, in order to prepare for possible losses at any time. The explosive performance wave has been planned in advance, so as to maximize profits.

As for the power sector, the country recently announced that it will impose long-term price limit measures on electricity prices. This is bad news for the sector, so lower the price. Regarding the profit expectations for this sector,

It remains to be seen whether the hot money’s attack on the venture capital sector caused by Shang Fulin’s announcement that he will list the entrepreneurship sector in the first half of the year is sustainable. Retail investors are advised to be cautious. Chase high.