On the first day of people's work in 2008, before the voice of the National Association of Realtors about the favorable sales of used houses landed, there was worrying news in the New York Mercantile Exchange: the international crude oil futures price set a new record at noon on the 2nd Eastern Time, reaching $0/00 per barrel for the first time. In fact, the alternating appearance of good news and bad news at the economic level, especially the staggering bad news from time to time, will be the characteristic of the development of the American economic situation in 2008. Undeniably, the favorable factors in the American economy continue to strengthen, but the subprime mortgage dilemma, the further weakness of the real estate market, the sharp fluctuation of oil prices and the weakness of the US dollar will make the American economy face repeated tests in the next 12 months.

Judging from the development trend of relevant parties, the subprime mortgage crisis is not only difficult to disappear soon, but may be further aggravated in the next six months or even longer. According to the accepted analysis data, the bad debts of sub-prime loans have mainly occurred in those property buyers who speculated in high housing prices and went bankrupt, and the more serious problem may occur in 2008. The first reason is that there is a subprime loan called "2-28", which is a 30-year loan. The repayment interest rate in the first two years is fixed at a very low level, and then it rises sharply, changing with interest rate fluctuations. The total amount of such floating-rate loans in subprime loans is about $362 billion, and most of them will greatly increase the interest rate from 6% in the previous two years to 9.5% or even higher from 2008. In addition, there are $654.38+052 billion non-"2-28" floating interest rate loans, and the repayment rate will be increased in 2008. This is generally a new repayment pressure for property buyers, which may mean bankruptcy for a considerable number of them. Undeniably, the US government has introduced practical measures to alleviate the further deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis, such as requiring banks to freeze the interest rate from 1 in October 2008 to 3 1 in July 2000. However, these measures only include those self-occupied families and homeowners who still repay their loans on time, excluding investment houses and families who are already facing difficulties. Therefore, the subprime mortgage crisis will not only be difficult to disappear in the next six months or even longer, but will also make matters worse and face a new high-risk bankruptcy risk of $51400 million.

It has become the consensus of economists that the American real estate market will continue to be weak in the next six months or even longer. According to the latest data released by the National Association of Realtors recently, although the price of old houses is still falling, the sales volume finally stopped falling after eight consecutive months of decline, and increased by 0.4% in June 2007. However, most experts believe that the real estate market in the United States is far from bottoming out, and the overall real estate market will rebound by the end of 2008. Indeed, the continuous spread of the subprime mortgage crisis has the greatest direct impact on the overall American economy, which is to suppress the real estate industry in the United States. In the subprime mortgage crisis, more buyers went bankrupt and more houses were auctioned by banks. Bank auctions are most concerned about recovering their own loans, rather than real house prices, which will inevitably lead to further decline in house prices and form a vicious downward cycle of the real estate market. According to the Federal Reserve's estimate, the total value of American housing is currently about $265,438+0 trillion. If house prices fall further 10% as expected, the chain effect will reduce consumption by $200 billion in the next year or two, which is equivalent to a real drop of 2% in American consumers' income. The first pillar of the American economy is consumption, and the possible impact of the decline in the real estate market on consumption growth is the most worrying issue for relevant circles inside and outside the US government.

Oil is the blood of American economy, which people will have a deeper understanding in 2008. On the first day of opening in the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2008, the international futures oil price closed at $ 100 per barrel for the first time. In view of the fact that Iran, Venezuela and other oil-producing countries will continue to be hostile to the United States, the negative attitude of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production and depress prices, and the rising demand for crude oil by emerging economic powers, the possibility of international energy prices hovering above the 100 mark or even rising further in 2008 is increasing. American consumers have to pay hundreds of billions of dollars for this, and the resulting psychological panic and negative tendency of consumers will inevitably further curb consumption growth.

The potential threat of the weakening trend of the US dollar in 2008 should not be underestimated. The huge foreign trade deficit and rising domestic and foreign debts for many years have led to the sharp depreciation of the US dollar against the euro and other western currencies. The further rise in oil prices in 2008 and the monetary easing policy adopted by the US government in response to the subprime mortgage crisis will further exert downward pressure on the US dollar. In 2007, the inflation rate in the United States hovered around 2.5%. But more and more economists predict that the inflation rate may rise to around 4.5% in 2008. The further weakening of the US dollar is not only not conducive to the effective control of inflation by the US government, but may also have a far-reaching impact on the international status of the US dollar. These trends have brought new challenges to the capital market in the United States and even the world, and they are also a big problem that people can't take lightly in the future.

Faced with multiple economic difficulties, the Federal Reserve and other government decision-making departments will take monetary easing as the leading factor, and at the same time be alert to the occurrence of inflation. In 2008, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates slightly, and control the impact of the further increase in the existing ddhw.cn housing loan interest rate on the real estate industry, with a view to making the real estate industry rebound in mid-2008. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will inject capital into the US capital market in a timely manner according to the fluctuation of the stock market trend, so as to stabilize the stock market and help the US financial industry cope with the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis. In order to stimulate consumption, the US Treasury and Congress will also seek new tax cuts.

Looking at the development direction of American economy in 2008, although it is not ruled out that the American economy will face the threat of low stagflation or even fall into recession, it is predicted that the real estate industry will rebound around the third quarter of 2008, and it is more likely that the American economy will achieve a soft landing in the subprime mortgage crisis. In view of the fact that the employment rate in the United States is still high, the foreign trade situation has obviously improved, and commercial investment continues to be active, the government still has various effective policy levers to deal with the crisis. At present, the mainstream view holds that consumption, the most fundamental economic factor, will continue to grow at a low speed under the strong stimulus of various measures of the US government, thus promoting the growth rate of US GDP to reach 1.5% in 2008.