The latest news! On the evening of August 9, the Russian national oil pipeline transportation company announced that the oil transportation through Ukraine had been interrupted.
According to foreign media reports quoted by the World Wide Web, on the 9th local time, Transneft issued a statement saying that since August 4th, Ukrainian pipeline operator Ukrtransnafta suspended the transit service of Russian natural gas. The statement said that Russia is still transporting natural gas to Poland and Germany through the northern branch of the "Friendship" pipeline. The southern branch line (the pipeline that transports natural gas through Ukraine to Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia) has suspended gas supply.
Japan and South Korea are also competing for natural gas. Following the European Union, Japan and South Korea also joined the "air mission".
On August 8, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of the Republic of Korea said that as the third largest importer of LNG in the world, South Korea is seeking to purchase more goods to meet the expectation of domestic demand growth, and plans to increase its inventory from the current 34% to about 90% of 1 1. The department said that this is due to the "high degree" of uncertainty brought about by the summer heat wave and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In addition to South Korea, Japan, the world's second largest importer of LNG, has also been snapping up natural gas recently. In this regard, some traders believe that Japan and South Korea seek to ensure the supply in winter and the next few months because they are worried that the price of natural gas will rise with the increase of European demand later this year.
The worries of Japan, South Korea and other countries are not groundless, because under the strong demand of European countries, Asian natural gas prices are soaring sharply.
The price of natural gas in Asia has soared nearly 10 times.
Recently, it was reported that the spot (instant contract) price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia has risen to nearly 65,438+00 times the previous summer level. As of August 5th, the futures price of LNG in Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea was $44.66 per 6,543.8+0,000 British Thermal Units (BTU). In contrast, the benchmark natural gas futures price of the Dutch Ownership Transfer Center (TTF), which is regarded as the weather vane of European natural gas prices, is much higher than that of Asia. As of August 8th, the benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures price is 19 1 euro /MWh.
Wang Yongzhong, director of the International Commodity Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of China Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that it is inevitable that there will be a long-term shortage of natural gas in the market due to the comprehensive sanctions imposed by Europe on Russian energy and the substantial reduction in the purchase of Russian natural gas. However, the pipeline natural gas originally exported to Europe is difficult to be converted into liquefied natural gas (LNG) in a short time, and the infrastructure construction required for LNG transportation will take a long time.
How can Japan and South Korea, which depend on energy imports, survive the crisis of natural gas shortage?
Japan and South Korea encounter "gas supply difficulties"
Although the price of natural gas has soared rapidly, Japan and South Korea still insist on "hoarding gas" to reserve for autumn and winter needs.
On August 8, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of Korea said that South Korea's state-owned natural gas companies began to purchase from stocks in April, and in July alone, they purchased about 3.5 million tons. At present, the inventory is about 18 1 10,000 tons, which is higher than the minimum threshold of 9 1 10,000 tons in winter. Although the current inventory has exceeded the minimum threshold in winter, South Korea has not slowed down the pace of "purchasing gas". The department said that before 1 1, the inventory should be increased from the current 34% to 90%.
In this regard, Qin, an energy and chemical analyst at Everbright Futures, told the reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald that South Korea has been actively purchasing LNG to supplement domestic stocks since the second quarter of this year, but it still needs to purchase100000 tons before the end of the year to meet the winter demand.
Japan is also facing the pressure of lacking energy reserves. Recently, the country's public enterprises are also accelerating the procurement of liquefied natural gas. At the same time, both Japan and South Korea have to pay unprecedented high prices for natural gas. It is reported that before the outbreak of the epidemic in 20 19, the average price of LNG in summer was about $5, and now the price has exceeded 9 times that of the low price.
Wangtong, an energy analyst at Chaos Tiancheng Research Institute, believes that this round of soaring Asian natural gas prices stems from the shortage of natural gas in Europe. He told the reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald, "Japan and South Korea are highly dependent on energy imports, and their dependence on natural gas imports is 98% and 99% respectively. After entering the third quarter in previous years, Japan and South Korea will have the action of replenishing qi, which is to meet the demand for gas in winter. However, Japan and South Korea had previously announced the transfer of some LNG in March and April this year to help the EU. This led to a year-on-year decrease of 65,438+0% and 3% in LNG imports from Japan and South Korea in the first half of 2022. "
With the decrease of natural gas imports and the competition from Europe, Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea, which are highly dependent on natural gas, will naturally face greater pressure.
Wang, director of the New Era Futures Research Institute, also told the 2 1 Century Business Herald that in the past, 30% of the natural gas supply in continental Europe depended on Russia, and abandoning Russian supply meant that more RMB was needed for import substitution. Europe has objectively set off a global LNG purchase tide, which inevitably makes Japan and South Korea, which rely on imports, feel unprecedented tension. He believes that "the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and Western sanctions against Russia have disrupted the global energy trade flow and exacerbated regional supply imbalances and shortages."
From the perspective of natural gas import structure, Wang believes that Japan and South Korea's natural gas imports will be greatly affected by Australian and American exports. "Of Japan's LNG imports, 36% came from Australia, 14% from Malaysia, 12% from Qatar and 9% from Russia; Among South Korea's LNG imports, 25% comes from Qatar, 2 1% comes from Australia, 18% comes from the United States, and Russia has almost no supply. "
Under the interference of Europe, the "big buyer" of natural gas, its influence gradually appeared. First, the United States has greatly increased its natural gas exports to Europe. According to us energy information administration's data, in the first four months of this year, 74% of US LNG was exported to Europe, higher than the average annual level of 34% last year. The report shows that Asia will be the main destination in 2020, 202 1.
Is it realistic to find another energy source to replace natural gas?
Japan and South Korea have taken precautions and implemented "hoarding gas". South Korea even proposed to increase the natural gas stock to about 90%. But at present, whether this goal can be achieved is still unknown.
Wang Yongzhong told reporters: "At present, the natural gas in the market is low in stock and high in price. It is estimated that it is difficult to achieve the goals set by Japan and South Korea. "
Wangtong believes that the premium of Europe's natural gas benchmark price (TTF) to Japan's and South Korea's liquefied natural gas benchmark price (JKM) will lead to more liquefied natural gas flowing into the EU, resulting in a shortage of natural gas supply in Asia.
A number of interviewed analysts told reporters that the trend of natural gas prices will not be optimistic in the future. Lin, president of China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that there is still the possibility that Russia will "cut off its gas supply" to the EU in the future, so the situation of high natural gas prices will not change at least until this winter.
Wangtong also told reporters that as the peak season of natural gas consumption approaches, the demand will pick up, which will support the price of natural gas. Therefore, before Russia and western countries reach a settlement, natural gas still has the potential to rise. The high price of natural gas will force some countries to reduce the consumption of natural gas and turn to other energy sources.
To some extent, coal has become an alternative energy source for natural gas.
Recently, it was reported that Nippon Steel, Japan's largest steel company, and Glencore, a global commodity trading giant, reached a coal supply agreement as of March next year, with a purchase price of $375 per ton. The agreement may be one of the most expensive coal purchase contracts signed by Japanese companies. It is reported that Nippon Steel uses fuel to generate electricity for its industrial base and supply power to the Japanese power grid.
"Due to the extensive use of natural gas in autumn and winter, it is estimated that Japan and South Korea will increase the amount of coal to replace natural gas." Wang Yongzhong is optimistic about using coal as an alternative fuel. He said that the increase in coal prices will encourage some countries to increase coal production capacity, and the slowdown in global economic growth will affect coal demand, so coal prices are expected to fall.
However, Du expressed concern about Japan and South Korea's current practice of replacing natural gas with coal. "Japan was once the second largest exporter of Russian coal. In the context of partial restrictions on coal exports in Indonesia and Australia to meet domestic demand and the structural shortage of supply in the global coal market, it is not easy to increase the purchase of coal to replace natural gas. " She said.
Japan and South Korea have made great progress in developing renewable energy, but the reality is that there is still a gap between the practicality of renewable energy and their expectations.
Qin told reporters that Japan and South Korea are still highly dependent on traditional energy sources for power generation, and about 68% and 56% of their electricity comes from fossil fuels respectively. For Japan and South Korea, clean energy power generation is "far water is difficult to solve near thirst", and it is difficult to effectively make up for the energy supply gap caused by the current shortage of natural gas and coal.
Specifically, the current production capacity of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic is relatively small, and the power generation depends on weather conditions; In terms of nuclear energy, although the new Korean government has decided to abolish the previous policy of nuclear power removal and restart the construction of nuclear power units, it will still take time to implement the relevant policies; Japan also plans to restart nuclear power, but it is difficult for Japan to restart nuclear power due to the accident at Fukushima nuclear power plant.
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