On Wednesday, the market opened lower, and the turnover decreased. The total turnover of the two cities was 65.438+0.07764 billion. On the disk, banks, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances and other industries were among the top gainers, while mining, steel, national defense and military industries were among the top losers. The daily limit of the two cities was 27, and the daily limit was 76, and the capital outflow from the north was 267 million. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.83% to 3536.29 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 1.64% to 14079.02 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell1.65,438+03% to 3/kloc-.
market outlook
On Wednesday, the market did not continue yesterday's repair as expected. The main reason may be that the European and American stock markets fell across the board overnight The market has always been sensitive to the expectation that the Fed will buy bonds. Just last night, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said in his speech to the Senate Banking Committee that economic growth "continues to strengthen", but it faces the pressure of rising prices caused by factors such as supply chain bottlenecks. He warned that rising inflation may last longer than expected. Later, he said in the Senate that the Fed almost met the conditions for reducing the size of its bond purchases. This has further aggravated the market's concern about buying scaled-down bonds, and the yield of 10-year US bonds has also soared recently. In addition, the fiscal year of the US government will come to an end, and the debt of the US government is close to the upper limit of $28.4 trillion. It is estimated that the debt ceiling will reach 65438 by mid-June. If the US Congress does not raise the debt ceiling quickly, the US government may have "no money to spend". US Treasury Secretary Yellen even warned that the United States may hit the debt ceiling before 10, and the federal government may default on its debt at 10, which is likely to bring crisis to the financial market. On the one hand, it reduces the purchase of bonds, on the other hand, the US government faces the risk of "closing the door" again.
However, from the past experience, the risk of "closing the door" of the US government will eventually be resolved through compromise between the two parties. As for reducing the purchase of bonds, the market has long expected that the panic will be repaired soon. We should pay more attention to whether hyperinflation will come. Judging from the rebound of the European market after the closing of A shares, the market is not as panic as we thought. Perhaps today's decline is more an amplification of the overnight decline in European and American markets, as well as the early hedging of long-term holiday uncertainty.
On Monday, in the column "20 1 1 to 2020 10", the market performance of the Shanghai Composite Index after the National Day was better than before. 10 year, after the holiday, it will rise for 8 years in 5 trading days and fall for only 2 years, with an increase probability of 80%. After the holiday, the 10 trading day also rose for 7 years, and fell for only 3 years, with a rising probability of 70%. " Therefore, the closing of the market after the holiday is still worth looking forward to.
Operation strategy
Before the holiday, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was still strong, and the market hotspots switched quickly, lacking continuity. In operation, it is recommended to maintain a certain position to hold shares for the holidays. After all, from past experience, the probability of post-holiday rise is still too great. In terms of sectors, it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities in coal, brokerage and military industries.
Li, senior investment consultant of GF Securities, with the practice certificate number S0260612110012.