Take main futures contract 2209 as an example. From April to July, the market price rose from per ton 17420 yuan to the highest of 22270 yuan, an increase of only 27.8%. Obviously, this round of pig price increase is driven by tight supply in the spot market, not speculation. This shows that this round of pig price increase is likely to last for a long time. Considering that pig breeding enterprises have made profits, it is expected that the relevant listed companies will usher in a rare profit window in the second half of the year and the first half of next year. The futures market strictly suppresses speculation to prevent the atmosphere of spot speculation from aggravating. The spot increase after June was boosted by the general behavior of farmers. The second fattening can delay the slaughter of pigs, thus reducing the supply of pigs in recent months, while increasing the weight of pigs and obtaining more income and profits at a higher price in the distant months. However, because Dalian Commodity Exchange strengthened the price monitoring of pig futures in advance in the risk control mechanism, and guided large-scale farmers, especially enterprises with delivery warehouses, to actively participate in the hedging of pig prices, futures prices fulfilled the expectations of some secondary fattening pigs. At present, pig futures are discounted relative to the spot. Moreover, the Dashang Institute has set a speculative margin of as high as 15% for pig futures, limiting all varieties to 500 lots, blocking the passage of speculative funds pouring into pig futures on a large scale and reducing the price speculation in the futures market. The price of live pigs has a strong support in the short term, and it takes a long time for the price to fall. July is likely to be released during the summer vacation, Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day peak demand in August-10. In this way, the price may have risen to a stage high point in a short period of time, and with the gradual increase of supply in the later period, the price of live pigs will tend to be stable. However, a new round of breeding of fertile sows is under way, and this wave of production capacity corresponds to the peak demand for pork after 65438+February. However, the number of fertile sows is only about 410.5 million, which is about 8% lower than the same period of last year and lower than the average level of normal years before 20 18. It is expected that the price of live pigs will gain a new upward momentum after the National Day, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the strength and duration of market demand recovery. By then, the measures that the country can take include releasing frozen goods stocks and increasing imports. It is expected that the price of live pigs will stabilize slightly. On the whole, there is a considerable probability that this round of pig price rebound cycle or the profit cycle of pig breeding enterprises will last until the first half of next year.