Generally, the banker chooses to open a position when the stock price is low, and he hopes that the lower the better. He can't wait to smash two boards before buying. Therefore, don't believe it, such as "pulling up food" and the stock price has reached a new high and it is said to be food-eating, and so on. After eating, there will generally be a rapid pull-up process. Once a stock starts to soar, it is out of the safe zone and it is possible to ship at any time. Therefore, my mid-line recommendation is always in the low position. When the dealer thinks that the delivery time has not arrived, it needs to be arranged sideways at a high position, usually by making a price difference, which is easy for retail investors to mistake for delivery. Bankers generally have to make a head when shipping. The characteristics of the head are large volume and large amplitude. Unless they catch up with the market, the head time of individual stocks is generally more than one month.
the banker's analysis method is a comprehensive analysis method. We should not only look at the graph, but also refer to the technology. We should also pay attention to the fundamentals and some peripheral conditions of the stock.
before introducing specific graphic analysis, let's talk about some peripheral factors.
1. Plate effect. Plate effect means that stocks with the same region, industry and theme are close in trend and influence each other. Plate linkage has great benefits for bookmakers' speculation. For a sector, as long as there is one leading stock, other stocks can rise only by pulling lightly or without pulling high. At the same time, because this plate has become an obvious hot spot in the market, short-term funds will flood in, making it much more convenient to ship. However, the linkage between sectors is not forever. On the one hand, some stocks belong to multiple sectors. On the other hand, after the stage of eating goods and shipping, the bookmakers no longer take care of them, and naturally there is no linkage. Therefore, with the banker analysis method, you can't buy stocks whose sectors are in a state of linkage, especially when the market is recognized as a hot spot.
2. share price. In the American stock market, the stock price has no meaning to the trend of the stock. In China, there are almost no stocks below 3 yuan in the past two years. This is a strange phenomenon and a manifestation of the speculative market. In order to reduce the share price, companies have sent shares. What I want to talk about here is that when the price of a stock is low, even if there is no performance and theme, the banker is very confident in doing it. When the price of a stock is too high, especially above 2 yuan, the banker will not easily open a position, and once it is sideways, the delivery will be very large.
3. performance. Before 1996, the stock market did not talk about performance, so it was easy to make a profit by buying stocks with low P/E ratio. In 1997, stocks with a price-earnings ratio of 2 times were once eliminated. After that, everyone paid attention to their performance, but they entered a strange circle: those with good performance fell all the way, while those with bad performance, especially st, actually rose all the way. In fact, the main reason is that the performance affects the shareholding mentality of retail investors. If the P/E ratio is low and the performance grows well, the stock price is already high, and the retail investors are not willing to sell, so the bookmakers are naturally unwilling to do it, that is, the main force will pull it when the market starts. And the poor performance, especially when losing money, retail investors have a sense of fear, even if diving, they have to cut their meat, so the bookmakers can eat cheap stocks and will naturally do it up, which is the reason for the rise of ST.
4. message. At present, the market is set to be good for shipment and bad for eating goods. Of course, it will not be completely like this in the future, but everyone still grasps it according to this operation.
5. technology. Mainly indicators. Many bookmakers just like to do it against technology, double-headed, up, head and shoulders, down. The indicator is to passivate it. Therefore, although the banker's analysis method also depends on the trend and the quantity and price, it is completely different from the traditional technical analysis. It's best not to look at technology when analyzing bookmakers, otherwise it's easy to be fooled.
6. Policy. The attitude of the policy towards the banker's speculation directly affects the banker's confidence and operation strategy. In 1997, the trading suspension system was implemented, and most bookmakers were afraid to move. There are also stop board and t+1 system. The policy of China stock market is changeable, so we must pay attention to it.
7. Market trend. The relationship with the market trend is somewhat similar to the plate linkage. When the market rises, it is easy to pull up and ship, so it is very difficult to eat. When the market falls, it is very difficult to pull up and take fewer orders, but it is easy to eat. Therefore, dealers should also take advantage of the trend when speculating in stocks, especially when the amount of funds is insufficient. Bankers who go against the market are generally strong, but most of them also have conspiracy. Everyone has seen a lot of diving recently.
what is the guiding ideology of the analysis banker?
1. As a banker, you can't run away from eating, raising prices and shipping.
2. The means of eating goods is to avoid buying and attract selling; The means of shipping is to enhance the confidence of retail investors in holding shares and attract buying.
3. The habit, technique and confidence of the dealer in making stocks.
4. The banker's empathy: expected profit margin, unwilling to lose money and unwilling to admit defeat.
5. The influence of market trend, plate linkage and surrounding news on the stock trading.
the next task is to study one by one, which trends indicate that it is eating goods, which is pulling up, which is washing dishes and which is shipping; Which news is for shipment and which is for food; What kind of trend shows that the banker is full of confidence, and what kind of trend shows that the banker has begun to lose patience; At what price does the general dealer start to consider shipping; The influence of homeopathic time on the banker and the influence of adverse market time; When the plates are linked, what layout can make up for the increase and what layout ends at the same time; Wait a minute.
since I was a child, I thought that people should stand on their own feet. I seldom want to ask others except what the teacher said in class. I just read books, analyze and study. On the one hand, it is not easy for anyone to get knowledge, and there is no obligation to teach you; On the other hand, only when you get knowledge, what you master is the most reliable.
Classification of bookmakers
Before analyzing bookmakers, you should first understand the classification of bookmakers, because different types of bookmakers have different trading methods. It should also be noted that there is a big gap in the level of bookmakers, and it is better not to participate in stocks with low level of bookmakers.
according to the operation cycle, it can be divided into short-line village, middle-line village and long-line village; According to the amplitude and amplitude of the trend, it can be divided into strong villages and weak villages; According to the relationship between the stock trend and the broader market, it can be divided into homeopathic villages and anti-market villages; According to the banker's success, it can be divided into profit-making village and quilt village.
I need to talk about my definition of banker here. People often think that a large amount of money and a large amount of positions are bookmakers, which is wrong. Bankers need to have two points: the ability to control the stock price trend over a period of time; Consciously operate in the opposite direction to the target. That is, when you want to buy, you have to sell it from time to time to stabilize the stock price; When you want to sell, you have to buy to raise the stock price.
here are the characteristics of different types of bookmakers.
short-term bookmakers. Short-term bookmakers are characterized by valuing potential over price and not demanding positions. It can be roughly divided into two types. One is to copy the rebound, buy low for 1-2 days when the market is close to the low point, and then quickly pull up, and then quickly go out when the majority of retail investors also start to grab the rebound. One kind is speculation, which raises the food before the major good news comes out, or immediately after the news comes out, and then continues to rise quickly and leave quickly.
mid-line banker. Mid-line bookmakers often look at a mid-level market in the broader market or the theme of a stock. Mid-line bookmakers often speculate on the plate. Mid-line bookmakers often open positions at the bottom for 1-2 months, and the positions are not very high, and then they are pulled up with the help of the broader market or favorable conditions, so as to save costs and facilitate shipment through the plate linkage effect, and then they are quickly out in a short time. The things that the middle-line banker relies on are beyond his own ability, so the risk is relatively large and he is naturally cautious in operation. Under normal circumstances, a 3% increase is too much.
Long-term bookmakers often look at the performance of stocks. They entered the market with the mentality of investors. Because the long-term bookmakers have great financial strength, sufficient confidence and long operation time, they can clearly see eating goods, washing dishes, pulling up and shipping in the trend form. The so-called "dark horse" is generally produced from Changzhuang stock. One of the most important characteristics of Changchangzhuang is the position. Because the holding time is very long and the expected increase is very large, the banker is required to be able to buy all the shares, and in fact, the banker is very willing to do so. In this way, the stock price has doubled from the bottom, but the dealer is still eating. The process of delivery is equally long, and we should pay attention to it regardless of the price at the later stage.
there is another way of saying "changzhuang". That is to say, a banker always doesn't come out in a certain stock and plays the price difference back and forth.
strong village: the premise of strong village is large positions. The higher the position, the lower the cost for the dealer to raise it. The so-called strong village is not that the banker is necessarily stronger than other villages, but that the trend is strong for a certain period of time, or that the stock is expected to increase dramatically.
weak village: generally speaking, it is a banker with weak financial strength. Due to the sharp rise, it can't stand the selling, so it can only be pushed up slowly, and the stock price can be raised by washing dishes and playing the price difference. Because the banker's position is low, he can get a lot of income by playing the price difference, so the cumulative increase is not large.
a homeopathic village means that the stock price trend is consistent with the broader market, which is a high-level village.
In a narrow sense, a counter-market village is a village that rises when the market falls. In a broad sense, it is a village whose trend has nothing to do with the market, that is, people often say "Zhuang shares". Because the anti-market village gave up an important tool in vain, it is difficult to make a plate and there are many failures. Of course, some bookmakers go against the market when opening positions and take advantage of the trend when shipping, which is also a high level.
profit-making villages are normal.
of course, it's easy to understand. However, there are two kinds of quilts: one is that the stock price is lower than the banker's cost of opening a position, and the banker has no ability to manipulate the stock price. This kind of bookmaker is much worse than retail investors, because without Xinzhuang's admission, there is no possibility of unwinding. And if you cut meat, you will suffer from not taking over. The other kind of quilt cover is due to the wrong technique, or the stock speculation obviously exceeds the reasonable value, resulting in no follow-up market. As a result, although the stock price is higher than the cost, it cannot be cashed. Because this kind of dealer has the ability to control the market, it is always possible to make a theme and use the market. The diving stocks you see often fall into this category.
the key to success
As we all know, the rise of a stock can't be without reason, and the main reason is that there are large funds in operation, in other words, there are bookmakers controlling the stock price. And if you want to be a Zhuang in a stock, you can't leave the three stages: opening a position, lifting a shock position and closing a position. How to accurately grasp these three stages is the key to success.
As the first step in the three-step process of building a warehouse, there are various ways to build a warehouse, such as taking the initiative to build a warehouse according to the plan, slowly absorbing funds with patience, taking delivery of goods according to the agreement, and taking the initiative to build a warehouse quickly ... Because the first way of building a warehouse is usually a long-planned and well-prepared way, it is necessary for us to discuss it carefully.
The stock market says, "There is no stock that only goes up but doesn't fall, and there is no stock that only goes down but doesn't rise". If a stock falls for a long time, the chips will often be scattered, which is often reflected in the market, that is, the transaction is light and no one cares. Before large funds enter the market, it is obvious that the safety of their funds must be considered first, is the price involved appropriate, and so on? Therefore, before it actually opens a position, there is usually a trial operation. When it is confirmed that the plate is very light and there are no other bookmakers in the venue, it is often necessary to take advantage of the situation to suppress the stock price. When the stock price falls, the transaction is extremely light, and the position is slowly opened. On the K-line chart, it is generally alternating with yin and yang, with a moderate increase in trading volume and a continuous upward shift in stock price center of gravity, but the increase is limited. -This is the process of "from shrinking to increasing".
after a period of time (usually more than three months), the dealer basically ate enough chips, and at this time, the stock price also rose to a certain extent, and the transaction became more and more active. At this time, in order to prevent retail investors from rushing to raise funds, and to remove some of the chips that have already made profits, the stock often suddenly turned around and went down when the attack form was excellent, and the stock price repeatedly broke through many "supports". Since most of the chips are in the hands of the dealer, and it is impossible for retail investors to do more in Qi Xin, the dealer only needs to sacrifice a small amount of chips to suppress the stock price; Therefore, with the continuous exit of the weak-willed elements, the volume of transactions became increasingly scarce. Finally, after several days of continuous shrinkage, the stock price gradually stopped falling. -This is the process of "from heavy volume to shrinkage".
traces of main positions opening activities
traces of main positions opening activities
1) From the K-line chart, when the stock price fluctuates at a low level, some special graphs often appear. Typical examples include:
A xiaoyang small yinxian line with long upper and lower shadows, and the daily turnover is mainly concentrated in the upper shadow line area, while there is a large infinite empty body in the lower shadow line, and many upper shadow lines come from the large and infinite suppression at the closing time;
after b gapped high, it took advantage of the opportunity to close a large negative line, and at the same time, the volume increased, but then it did not continue to increase, but it shrank rapidly, and the stock price fell back into a seemingly disorderly movement state;
after a small gap, C opened lower and took advantage of the momentum to push up. At the end of the session, it closed with a bald positive line, even with a large increase. The volume was obviously enlarged, but it was knocked down by a small volume the next day.
2) From the perspective of K-line combination, there is often a "stagflation" phenomenon in which the volume increases significantly when it rises, but the increase is not high, but the volume shrinks at an extremely fast speed in the subsequent decline. Sometimes, it doesn't go up or down after a short period of rise. Although the turnover is not as big as when it was pulled up, it always remains at a more active level and begins to shrink after one to two months. Because the main force is more than the output, the OBV line will go up. Although the main force will be strengthened at the end of the temporary period, there is still the ability to regulate the trend of individual stocks. Often hit the pressure at the close.
3) The moving average system is chaotic and tangled, and gradually becomes clear and undulating. Technically speaking, this is the difference between the successful and unsuccessful cases. Its internal mechanism is: in the initial stage, due to the scattered chips, the cost of holding positions is widely distributed, and the main force deliberately suppressed, the regularity of stock price fluctuation is poor, which is reflected in the moving average system, that is, the short, medium and long moving averages are constantly fluctuating, and with the precipitation of chips held by the main force, the floating codes in the market are reduced. When the main force raises funds to a certain extent, the fluctuation range of stock prices is often reduced to level the average market cost and reduce the fluctuation of other investors. When the distance between the moving averages gradually narrows or even coincides, it will start to try to pull up or suppress. Because the main force has control over the stock price, although the intraday volatility continues every day, the trend has become, and the moving average system that reflects the trend is naturally patchy.
4) In the opening stage, the main force and retail investors are actually at two ends of the game, and the main force always tries to create an illusion to force retail investors to spit out chips at low prices. Because of this, at the top of the bottom area, the main force often publishes all kinds of bad news, or creates a short structure in form, with the intention of causing psychological panic in the market and actively contributing to the stock price decline. This kind of decline should be distinguished from the chart of the failure of opening positions, and the magnitude and depth of the decline can distinguish the goal of the main force. Generally speaking, if the main force firmly holds the chips on the way down and continues to absorb on dips, this stock price will not fall back below the previous cost-intensive area, and there is no such situation in the shipping form. A stock is in the stage of opening a position, and this kind of feeling