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Cause Analysis of "3.27" Treasury Bond Futures Storm Event
At that time, the management of futures market was very chaotic, and treasury bonds futures were very popular. The game of subsidy rate is 1994. China is facing double-digit inflation pressure, and the bank savings rate is above 10%. Naturally, few people pay attention to fixed-rate government bonds. At that time, the subsidy rate for maintaining the value announced was 8%, which kept rising every month, and broke through double digits in 65438+February. Stimulated by this, the futures price of "327" government bonds began to rise linearly. From 1994 to10 yuan in June 1994, it rose to 140 yuan in early 1995, with an increase of more than 20%.

At that time, the standard of bond futures margin was set at 2.5%, that is to say, 2.5 million bonds could be traded with a market value of 654.38 billion yuan. An increase of more than 20% means that in just three months, property buyers have made huge profits equivalent to more than ten times the principal! Investment institutions are ecstatic about their daily progress. At that time, there was such an episode: a customer representative of an organization called the company headquarters in the morning and asked for another way to raise funds. When the market was in full swing, he made another100000. But an hour later, the customer called the head office again and told the other party that you don't have to mention your100000 yuan. I can just earn it here! The "327" national debt should be due on June 1995, and its coupon interest is 9.5% plus the value-added subsidy rate, and it will be paid at maturity for every 100 yuan of bonds 132 yuan. Compared with the bank deposit interest and inflation rate at that time, the return of "327" was too low. So from the beginning of February 1995, it began to be rumored in the market that the Ministry of Finance would raise the value-added subsidy rate again, and the "327" national debt was paid with 148 yuan. In the face of rumors, there have been sharp differences in the market. Guan Jinsheng, the godfather of the domestic securities industry and then president of IWC, believes that the first of the three major goals of macro-control in three years is to control high inflation, so it is impossible to increase the subsidy rate for value preservation, and there is no need for the Ministry of Finance to pay 654.38 billion yuan more interest for this, which will increase financial difficulties. Guan Jinsheng's point of view represented the point of view of a group of brokers at that time, so they put all their money on shorting.

At this time, China Economic Development Company began to enter the market and firmly do more. At that time, most small and medium-sized retail investors and some institutions in the market also did more. Their view is that inflation will definitely be uncontrollable in the short term, value-added subsidies will definitely rise, and the redemption price of 327 national debt will also rise. By mid-February of that year, "who is the enemy and who is the friend", the market boundary has been clearly drawn: retail investors and small and medium-sized institutions are everywhere, followed by "multi-command"; Many institutions such as Wan Guo and Liao Guofa are short. By February 23rd, every time the "327" contract is increased or decreased by 1 yuan, the profit and loss of the countries will fluctuate by 400 million yuan. An industry insider later commented that in fact, at this time, both long and short sides have no way out, and the difference in policy expectations has become a capital game in the market.