Judging from the changes in positions of new york crude oil:

The position report consists of business participants and non-reporters (i.e. retail investors and small traders) including producers, swap dealers, fund managers (funds or capital management companies) and others (1 dealers on Wall Street).

In oil distribution, producers, oil users and processors account for a larger proportion in the market than new york crude oil exchange. In other words, the new york Stock Exchange has more non-commercial trading positions and more speculative sentiment.

First look at the so-called futures main force, producers and other changes in positions:

London:

4-day long contract 13954 1, short contract 23 1629, the total approximate number is 37 1 170, and the long-short ratio is: short contract divided by the number of long contracts: 1.68.

8-day long contract 189456, short contract 274066, total 463522 lots, long-short ratio 1.45.

The proportion of bulls increasing is relatively large.

However, traders and hedge funds are cutting long positions, so it can be considered that the rising power of oil distribution comes from commercial positions such as producers. How are these positions profitable?

New york:

4th: There are 255,853 long contracts and 403 short contracts143, with a total of 658,996, and the long-short ratio is 1.58.

8th: 4246 15 long contract, 6 19085 short contract. The total approximate number is 1043700 lots, and the long-short ratio is 1.46. However, due to the different cardinality, the bulls only increased by about 1700 contracts.

However, the number of hedging spread contracts of swap dealers increased from about 265,438+00,000 to more than 730,000, exceeding all positions held by oil producers. Short positions increased by more than 60,000 to 320,000 contracts, while long positions only increased by less than 65,438+00,000 contracts to 220,000 contracts.

However, the ratio of short positions between money managers and primary dealers is decreasing, but the most obvious problem is that the number of spread contracts among all market participants except retail investors and producers has surged, the hedging of money managers has increased from 6.5438+0.7 million to 3.65438+0 million, and the top dealers have increased from 6.5438+0.8 million to 6.65438+0 million.

In other words, the key change in the market is the increase of spread positions, and then analyze the possibilities arising from the increase.

Total oil distribution positions, long and short, about 6.5438+0.2 million lots.

New york's total position is about 5.6 million contracts, with short positions and long positions equally divided.

In other words, the oil distribution contract is less than a quarter of that of new york, and the daily trading volume of crude oil in new york is around 300,000 lots, with an average trading volume of 90,000 lots. New york crude oil has a much greater impact on the world than oil distribution.

Top ten crude oil importers in the United States in 2009:

Canada (65438+984,000 barrels per day)

Mexico (956,5438+00,000 barrels per day)

Nigeria (948,000 barrels per day)

Saudi Arabia (837,000 barrels per day)

Venezuela (809,000 barrels per day)

Iraq (458,000 barrels per day)

Angola (408,000 barrels per day)

Brazil (266,5438+00,000 barrels per day)

Algeria (2,654.38+900,000 barrels per day)

Colombia (265,438+600,000 barrels per day)

The spread originated from new york crude oil market, and both funds and business participants increased short contracts. How to understand this phenomenon?

The political turmoil in the Middle East first affects the oil distribution market, while European and Asian countries have the most far-reaching influence, because the main oil importers in Europe and Asia are the Persian Gulf and Russia.

In addition, in the long run, with the fermentation and continuous influence of the Middle East issue, oil prices will definitely spread to the Americas, because many countries may change their oil supply routes and tend to import oil from American countries with much lower oil prices.

Of course, the huge spread may lead to a sharp increase in arbitrage capital, so in the long run, oil prices tend to be balanced.

From the market point of view, new york crude oil price difference may exist in the short term, but in the long term, the gap will gradually narrow.