Objectively speaking, it is something that everyone can see that the ban on the ratio of foreign shares and the number of joint ventures in passenger car manufacturing is abolished. How can it be called an opportunity? Real opportunities are often hidden outside the automobile industry.

Text/"Autobot" Wu Yu

The Negative List of Foreign Investment in 2020 was implemented in late July, and the promised "cancellation of the foreign share ratio limit for commercial vehicle manufacturing" arrived as scheduled, and the "foreign share ratio limit for passenger vehicle manufacturing and the number of joint ventures" will also be cancelled 24 months later. However, for China automobile enterprises, under the background of global R&D, global manufacturing and global supply, it is necessary to look for real development opportunities beyond the automobile industry.

Open share ratio background

With the continuous breakthrough of new materials and next-generation information technology, the development trend of automobiles from means of transportation to "large-scale mobile intelligent terminals, energy storage units and digital spaces" is becoming clearer and clearer, and the evolution trend of "intelligent interconnection and data sharing among passengers, vehicles, goods, operating platforms and infrastructure" is even more unquestionable. At the same time, the problem that China's automobile industry is big but not strong is still outstanding, the key core technologies are insufficient, the industrial chain has shortcomings, the innovation system still needs to be improved, the international brand building is weak, the strength of enterprises needs to be improved urgently, the risk of overcapacity appears, and the safety performance of commercial vehicles needs to be improved. ...

Under this social trend and industrial background, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three ministries and commissions issued the Medium-and Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry in April 2065438+2007, taking "deepening the reform of system and mechanism" as the basis for the automobile industry to continue to expand and open up, encouraging the introduction of foreign capital, introducing relevant advanced technologies and high-end talents, strengthening strategic cooperation with foreign enterprises, and putting forward the idea of "perfecting the management system of domestic and foreign capital and orderly liberalizing the share ratio limit of joint ventures"

14 months later, the Special Management Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) (version 20 18) was released, which formally proposed to "cancel the foreign share ratio limit for commercial vehicle manufacturing in 2020" and explicitly promised to "cancel the foreign share ratio limit for passenger vehicle manufacturing and the limit that the same foreign investor can set up two or less joint ventures to produce similar vehicle products in China in 2022". It should be acknowledged that the "quick action" of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce is a firm implementation of the strategy of "deepening the reform of the system and mechanism", which not only gives a "reassurance" to foreign-funded enterprises in China, but also lays the foundation for continuing to expand reform and opening up today.

Among the joint ventures in China, manufacturers in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea are more or less worried about technology transfer. It is difficult for most employees of the joint venture company to directly open the access control of the parent company with their work cards, especially the R&D department, which often needs additional application and authorization; However, employees of multinational companies in China can enter and leave their overseas parent companies at will with their work permits. When the same phenomenon appears in multiple companies, the probability of coincidence has been infinitely reduced.

In the case that the joint venture shares are 50-50 (the right to speak is 50-50), will the transferred technology get out of hand and be used for the development of independent brands? Will the planning of the joint venture company be thoroughly implemented across the line and the existing development strategy of the parent company? If you increase the shareholding ratio, you can feel safer, which is conducive to controlling the operational dominance, and you can also set strict technical "thresholds".

Obviously, the China government hopes to invite multinational companies to enter the "2.0 era of deep cultivation in China" by opening the restrictions on the ratio of foreign shares, and to "bind" multinational companies in depth-not only to compete with American trade protectionism, but also to accelerate the electrification and intelligence of the China market.

For multinational auto companies, most of the cash and resources have turned to R&D and power, intelligence and interconnection testing. * * * In order to improve efficiency, there are countless examples of enjoying resources and even strategic cooperation (joint venture). Toyota and BYD set up a joint venture, Honda invested in Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., and Nissan joined hands with Xinwangda in the last six months. Even if the enterprise has a lot of "spare money", it needs to draw a question mark, whether it is worth increasing capital to traditional car companies.

Commercial vehicle manufacturers are testing the "open foreign share ratio limit", and all stakeholders are carefully observing it. The China Municipal Government hopes to find the shortcomings and correct them within a two-year time window, while the passenger car joint venture company hopes to know the policy direction and find new opportunities in the existing model.

Opportunities to open up "finance"

Objectively speaking, it is something that everyone can see that the ban on the ratio of foreign shares and the number of joint ventures in passenger car manufacturing is abolished. How can it be called an opportunity? Real opportunities are often hidden outside the automobile industry.

There is a change in Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) (2020 Edition) that deserves special attention. The "20 19 Edition" has confirmed that the "restriction on the ratio of foreign shares of securities companies, securities investment fund management companies, futures companies and life insurance companies" will be lifted in 20021year, and the 2020 edition has been laid off in advance. As long as the law does not prohibit it-the negative list refers to which economic fields are not open to the outside world; Except for the items prohibited on the list, economic activities in other industries are allowed. This means that the restrictions on the ratio of foreign shares in the financial industry have all been lifted.

At the moment when China's automobile market is changing from incremental market to stock market, from high growth to micro-growth or even negative growth, "opening financial market" will inject new vitality into the development of automobile industry.

In overseas markets, the operation of automobile enterprises is a real "four-wheel drive". Car rental, financial loans and second-hand car sales are the main operations, and new car sales are just one of them.

Through the cooperation of finance companies, leasing companies and used car companies, the product portfolio of car rental, lending and recycling will be packaged, so that car companies can provide consumers with various forms of car purchase and car use, forming an industrial chain independent of new car sales. This can not only keep the production capacity above the scale balance point, but also keep the terminal transaction price of new cars stable, protect the interests of dealers and ensure the market positioning of new car replacement unchanged.

In the American market, the profit and income contribution rate of auto financing companies exceeds 30% of the parent company, which is the most important profit "cow" of the company. Although car loans cover 85% of new car transactions and more than half of used car transactions, how to assess the credit risk of new customers and match the services of many banks with the needs of users has always been the pain point of car loans.

In the China market, which is leading in commercial digitalization, big data will enable auto financial services to overtake in a fast curve, and help auto companies get out of the infinite loop of "lowering transaction price = increasing sales" and "only when new cars are replaced will they find that the transaction price has no upward channel". Massive transaction information can clearly outline users' lifestyle and consumption preferences, and help sales departments and strategic departments to launch a better product portfolio; Online transactions will also reduce the simplification of operating procedures, reduce user complaints, and give millennials a better consumer experience.

It can be predicted that with the opening of the financial market, financial instruments will enter more dealer channels, and the used car market will also be good. The leasing market will be injected with new business ideas and business models ... the industrial chain of automobile manufacturing will usher in a broader territory.

Opportunities in the rare earth market

If "liberalizing the share ratio and partner restrictions" is an appetizer that has been served, and "liberalizing the share ratio in the financial industry" is the main course that is being loaded and highly anticipated, then "conditionally and restrictively opening rare earth resources" is a dessert that is still being cooked and still variable.

In the Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) (2020 Edition), the provisions prohibiting investment in smelting, processing and nuclear fuel production of radioactive minerals were abolished, but the provisions prohibiting investment in exploration, mining and beneficiation of rare earth, radioactive minerals and tungsten ores still exist.

With the development of new energy, plug-in hybrid power, pure electric power and hydrogen fuel cells are in full bloom, and the demand for miniaturized high-power drive motors is rising ... Foreign capital and technology are continuously paying attention to rare earth mining in China, which will further reshape the direction of the automobile industry chain.

Cobalt metal is not a rare earth, but it has attracted the attention of car companies in recent years. Almost every technological progress and every wave of strategic cooperation has its shadow behind it. Gm and LG chem jointly developed Ultium——NCMA quaternary lithium battery (Ni-Co-Mn-Al). By adding aluminum, the cobalt content in the battery was reduced by about 70%. Tesla also revealed in February this year that the electric vehicles produced by Shanghai Super Factory will use "cobalt-free" batteries. In Tesla's definition, without cobalt, it is not necessarily a lithium iron phosphate battery.

An Apple mobile phone uses 5- 10g cobalt, a laptop uses 30g cobalt, and a pure electric vehicle uses about 9000mg cobalt ... Car companies try to reduce the content of metallic cobalt, on the one hand, because metallic cobalt is expensive, reducing the use can reduce the cost of power batteries; On the other hand, it is because of the potential moral hazard in the process of cobalt mining-the extensive use of child labor, the reward close to plunder, the lack of safety measures and the continuous contact with toxic metals.

While smart phones and electric vehicles have become daily necessities, consumers are examining the entire industrial chain more strictly, demanding that the supply chain eliminate moral hazard and the production chain reduce carbon emissions. Apple, LG Chem, Ford, General Motors, Samsung SDI, BMW and Amazon all promised to establish responsible and humanized supply chain management and encourage their suppliers to participate in efforts to improve human rights.

If the exploitation of neodymium necessary for the development of new energy vehicles can be "conditionally opened", it will certainly attract foreign investment and technology. Not only will the automobile industry get a neodymium supply chain with controllable morality and traceable carbon emissions, but China can also make full use of its own resources to optimize mining technology, develop high-end products and achieve a win-win situation between supply and demand.

Both the lifting of the "restriction on the ratio of foreign shares in commercial vehicle manufacturing" and the imminent implementation of the "restriction on the ratio of foreign shares in passenger vehicle manufacturing and the number of joint ventures" have proved the determination of the China Municipal Government to continue to promote reform and opening up-let the automobile industry truly enter the market and let social resources benefit sustainable development projects.

For joint venture car companies, instead of worrying about the "share ratio change", it is better to polish their eyes to find those neglected industry opportunities and buried market opportunities. The real opportunity is not in the automobile industry. (Text/"Autobot" Wu Yu, part of the picture source network) Copyright statement This article is the exclusive original manuscript of Autobot Media, and the copyright belongs to Autobot Media.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.