Key recommendations
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to study and deploy "vegetable basket" products to stabilize production and ensure supply
The United Nations calls attention to the locust plague: the number of locusts increased by 64 million Times
Market Comments
Market Comments: The white horse protects the market and the Shanghai Stock Exchange has enjoyed seven consecutive positive years, and investors with heavy positions have reduced their positions on the rise
Infrastructure: The Ministry of Finance issued the new plan for 2020 in advance Increase local government debt limit by 848 billion yuan
Futures Information
Metal energy: gold 354.6, down 0.51%; copper 45580, up 0.22%; rebar 3392, up 2.69%; rubber 11500, up 1.23%; PVC index 6290, up 0.96%; Zheng Chun 2114, down 0.66%; Shanghai Aluminum 13780, up 0.66%; Shanghai Nickel 106190, up 1.56%; Iron Ore 605.5, up 4.4%; Coke 1855, up 3.14%; coking coal 1264, up 3.18%; crude oil 397.2, down 0.55%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 6096, down 1.68%; corn 1923, down 0.36%; palm oil 5690, down 2.54%; cotton 13125 , up 0.46%; Zhengmai 2665, down 0.15%; Sugar 5729, down 0.87%; Apple 7004, down 0.34%;
Exchange rate: EUR/USD 1.0916, up 0.05%; USD/RMB 6.9708, Down 0.20%; USD/HKD 7.7657, up 0.00%.
(The above futures data comes from Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange)
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Key recommendations
1. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to study and deploy the work of stabilizing production and supply of "vegetable basket" products
On February 11, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to analyze the current supply and demand situation of "vegetable basket" products such as vegetables, meat, eggs, milk, and aquatic products, as well as agricultural production materials such as feed, seedlings, pesticides, and veterinary drugs, and study and deploy the "vegetable basket" Stable production and supply of products. The meeting emphasized that efforts should be made to solve the outstanding difficulties faced by the current "vegetable basket" production and supply. Strengthen the production of vegetables, meat, eggs, milk, aquatic products, etc., and maintain normal production and marketing order. Strengthen assistance to large-scale entities, seize a number of key production entities of "vegetable basket" products, and help solve practical difficulties in a timely manner.
Comments: The previously announced CPI in January rose by 5.4% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than last month, and 3.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. On the one hand, this is affected by the traditional factors of the Spring Festival, and on the other hand, it is also affected by factors such as poor logistics due to the epidemic, which has led to rising prices of vegetables and other daily necessities for residents. Stabilizing the supply of the "vegetable basket" will help stabilize prices, thereby leaving sufficient monetary policy space for management to respond to downward pressure on the economy.
(Investment consultant? Cai Jin? Registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260611090020)
2. The United Nations calls for attention to the locust plague: the number of locusts has increased by 64 million times
2 On March 10, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations called on countries to increase assistance to countries threatened by locusts. The organization said it had raised US$21 million in aid funds, but there was still a large gap between the US$76 million needed. FAO officials said that the number of locusts has increased 64 million times in one and a half years. The destructive power of these locusts is unprecedented. Food shortages have occurred in many places. The price of flour and bread has soared. Pakistan and many African countries have declared a state of emergency.
Comment: As the possibility of locust plague approaching China continues to increase, the market demand for insecticides and pesticides is expected to grow. It is expected that stocks whose main business involves insecticides and pesticides are expected to have opportunities for active performance.
(Investment consultant? Cai Jin? Registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260611090020)
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Market comments
1. Market comments : White horse protects the Shanghai Stock Exchange's seventh consecutive positive performance, and investors with heavy positions reduced their positions on the rise
The indexes fluctuated throughout the day on Tuesday, with the three major stock indexes closing with mixed gains and losses. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded seven consecutive positives, rising 0.39% to close at 2901.67 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 10768.6 points, and the ChiNext Index fell -0.67% to close at 2028.44 points. Judging from the market, individual stocks rose and fell, with steel, liquor, coal and other sectors leading the gains, consumer electronics, glass ceramics and other related concept stocks performing actively, while medicine, telecommuting, disinfectant and other related sectors that had experienced large gains in the early stage fell. In the forefront. Overall, there were 56 non-ST stocks in the two cities with daily limit and 34 lower limit. The transaction volume was slightly smaller than yesterday. The net inflow of northbound funds today was 2.486 billion yuan, the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 2.164 billion yuan, and the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 3.21 billion yuan. billion.
The Shanghai Composite Index reached 2,900 points on Tuesday, closing in the positive territory for seven consecutive days, continuing to strongly cover the gap last Monday. However, after rebounding for many consecutive days, the technical callback pressure is gradually increasing. Judging from the market, the epidemic concept stocks that had gained hugely in the early stage are diving rapidly. Fortunately, the sectors are rotating, and the white horse stocks that have been stagnant in the early stage have made up for the gains, carrying the market index on Tuesday. However, trading volume has shrunk relatively, the market is in a relatively hesitant period, and market differences have intensified. On the news, the number of new confirmed cases has dropped significantly, and the pneumonia epidemic has been brought under control. However, as various places begin to resume work on February 10, there is still uncertainty about the epidemic, which may also affect the short-term sentiment of the market. In the short term, the country has continued to exert efforts in fiscal and taxation policies and monetary policies, market liquidity has been rapidly improved, and the market has also experienced rapid recovery. However, in the current epidemic situation, it is unrealistic to only expect the market to rebound in an all-round way. In terms of operation, investors with heavy positions can choose the opportunity to reduce their positions. In the short term, they can choose the opportunity to participate in the complementary gains opportunities of white horses such as infrastructure, cycle, and finance. For mid-line blue chip stocks such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and 5G, they can reverse operations and strengthen transactions.
(Investment consultant Zeng Zilei’s registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260613090015)
2. Infrastructure: The Ministry of Finance has issued an additional local government debt limit of 848 billion yuan in advance for 2020.
The Ministry of Finance stated on February 11 that following the decision of the State Council and reporting to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the Ministry of Finance has recently issued an additional local government debt limit of 848 billion yuan in advance for 2020, of which the general debt limit is 558 billion yuan. billion, and the special debt limit is 290 billion yuan. In addition to the special debt of 1 trillion yuan previously issued in advance, the government has issued in advance the new local government debt limit of 1.848 billion yuan in 2020.
Investment advisory comments: Affected by the new coronavirus epidemic, the current situation of resumption of work in various places is not optimistic, and it is expected that economic growth will be under great pressure in the first quarter. The Ministry of Finance has issued an additional local government debt limit of 848 billion yuan in 2020 in advance. The cumulative limit issued this year has exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan. In the short term, it can reveal the country's attitude towards economic growth and help alleviate investors' concerns about economic pressure. The policy will benefit infrastructure, cycle and other related sectors in the long term. Investors can pay attention to investment opportunities in individual stocks such as China State Construction, Conch Cement, and China Communications Construction.
(Investment consultant Zeng Zilei registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260613090015)