There are three basic estimates of the current supply and demand of energy and resources in the world. First, at present, the world's energy resources are generally rich, but their distribution is extremely uneven. At the same time, due to the neglect of prospecting and exploration in the 1990s, the whole world is "living on its laurels", which slows down the growth of the world's energy and resource reserves. This means that although there will be no shortage of resources other than oil, governments of all countries still need to pay close attention to the structural shortage and put the geopolitics of global energy and resources in a prominent position. As far as China is concerned, firstly, there must be a large number of mineral deposits to be discovered in China, and secondly, it is almost the last chance to use overseas resources. The later the access cost, the fiercer the competition. Second, the supply and demand of global energy resources are basically balanced, but the supply and demand in some areas are extremely unbalanced. In particular, the growth rate of consumption in the Asia-Pacific region far exceeds the growth rate of production, and the imbalance between supply and demand is even worse, resulting in a situation of "small horse-drawn carts". In a sense, it is time for China to save the world's mining industry, and we need to have a greater say in the market. Third, the world energy resources market is generally stable. However, due to complicated reasons such as intensified monopoly caused by the rapid development of globalization, fierce competition in transportation routes and unstable supply in the spot market, the market structure fluctuates violently, and the market price of energy resources is increasingly determined by the basic supply and demand relationship. With the former gaining the upper hand in the game between producer alliance and consumer alliance, the era of cheap oil may come to an end. In order to cope with this situation, we need to strengthen risk management. In fact, the current shortage of resources in the world is mostly structural, except for oil. However, as the demand for energy and mineral resources in industrialized countries continues to increase, and the demand for energy and mineral resources in countries with rising economies increases substantially, it is predicted that from 2020 to 2030, most strategic and key minerals will be short of resources, and then we will face more special difficulties in utilizing foreign resources. Generally speaking, it can be considered as the best opportunity to use foreign resources and ease the resource constraints in China.

4. 1. 1 At present, the world is generally rich in energy and resources, but their distribution is extremely unbalanced.

At present, the world is rich in energy and resources. According to the consumption in 2003, the static warranty period of most important energy and resources is basically more than 50 years. Among them, coal, iron ore, bauxite, chromite and potassium salt are minerals with a protection degree of more than 100 years, natural gas (67 years), uranium and nickel are 50 ~ 100 years, and only oil (4 1 year) and copper (47 years) are less than 50 years. Therefore, from the perspective of reserves, the world energy and resources can still maintain the global economic growth and the industrialization process of developing countries.

With the progress of science and technology, the reserves of major energy and resources in the world are still increasing. Deeper and farther sea areas and more complex non-traditional types of resources have been continuously proved, and low-grade and more difficult-to-select deposits have been continuously developed and utilized. For example, in the 20 years up to 2003, more than 67 billion tons of crude oil was proved in the world, but due to the progress and continuous investment in exploration and development technology, the remaining recoverable reserves increased by 58 billion tons in 2003, which means that 654.38+025 billion tons were proved in 20 years. At the same time, there are still a lot of energy and resources to be discovered, proved and delineated in the world. Take the least protected oil and copper for example. According to the statistics of US Geological Survey (USGS), the global land copper resources are 65.438+0.6 billion tons, and the proven copper reserves only account for 38% of its resources. Except for Western Europe and North America, the level of geological and mineral work in other regions is still low, including South Africa and Australia, which have great potential to be discovered. According to the current level of understanding, the world's reserves of conventional oil and natural gas to be proved or exploited through technological progress are15 billion tons and 180 trillion cubic meters respectively. In addition, unconventional oil and gas resources are very rich. The global recoverable reserves of heavy oil, asphalt and oil sands are about 400 billion tons, which is 2.7 times of the proven remaining recoverable reserves of conventional crude oil. The reserves of coalbed methane may be equivalent to conventional natural gas; It is estimated that the reserves of natural gas hydrate mainly stored on the seabed are at least twice the total reserves of all oil, natural gas and coal on the earth.

However, the growth rate of world resource reserves is slowing down. In addition to the difficulty of prospecting, the key reason is that the supply of the former Soviet Union to western countries increased after the Cold War. In the 1990s, the overall supply of energy and resources exceeded demand, and the price dropped sharply. At the same time, influenced by the sound of global geological work shifting from resources to environment, the global neglect of prospecting, 1997 the fall in gold prices and the negative impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis on energy and resource companies have led to a slowdown in the growth of world energy and resource reserves. For example, iron ore, uranium, potassium salt, coal and other minerals with long guarantee period have basically not been put into exploration in the world for decades (a few investments mainly focus on existing mines), and the world has "lived on its laurels".

What is more regrettable is that the geographical distribution of energy and resources in the world is extremely unbalanced. Due to the complex geological process that lasted for billions of years, the proven reserves of most minerals are mostly concentrated in a few countries. Six countries in the Middle East account for 63.3% of the world's remaining proven recoverable oil reserves, 6.8% in Venezuela, 6.0% in Russia and only 2. 1% in China. Russia is the country with the largest remaining recoverable reserves of natural gas, accounting for 26.7% in the world and 40.8% in the Middle East, with Iran and Qatar accounting for 15.2% and 14.7% respectively. The countries with the top 10 coal reserves account for more than 90.0% of the total. Among the proven recoverable reserves, Brazil and Australia have the best iron ore quality. Copper mines are mainly distributed in the Andes-Rocky Mountains and Central Asia-Russia in the United States. In recent years, the newly discovered Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia (6.5438+0.6 million tons) and the Russian Udokan copper mine (20 million tons) have not been developed and utilized. 7 1.0% bauxite reserves are distributed in Guinea, Brazil, Australia and Jamaica. Vietnam's bauxite resources have great potential, with proven reserves of nearly 8 billion tons, most of which are high-quality laterite gibbsite bauxite, which has good development and utilization prospects. Potassium salt reserves are highly concentrated, and nearly 75.0% of the reserves are distributed in Canada and Russia. Thailand and Laos are also rich in potash resources, which are highly complementary to China. Chromite is mainly distributed in southern Africa and countries of the former Soviet Union. Nickel is mainly distributed in Cuba, Canada, Russia and other countries. South Africa and Ukraine account for more than 80.0% of the world's manganese reserves.

Generally speaking, we believe that there will be no shortage of resources in the world except oil in the medium term, but structural shortages in the market will likely occur frequently, which requires the great attention of governments all over the world. At the same time, we can also draw the conclusion that it is almost the best time to use foreign energy and resources. If we hesitate again, we will lose a good opportunity, or there will be a shortage of resources, more intense competition, or the cost of access will increase greatly.

4. 1.2 The supply and demand of energy resources in the world are basically balanced, but the supply and demand in some areas are unbalanced.

The output of energy and resources in the world continues to grow. From 1993 to 2003, the average annual growth rate of world crude oil output was 1.5%. The rise in oil prices has pushed the output of some major oil-producing countries rich in resources to increase rapidly. From 1993 to 2003, the world's natural gas production increased by 2.3% annually, much faster than the growth rate of oil production in the same period. Since 1995, the world's iron ore output has been stable at around100000 tons. It broke through1/00000 tons for the first time in 2002 and1/200000 tons in 2003. In recent years, global copper production has also continued to grow.

However, in the future, the sustainable growth of world energy and resource production capacity will face many obstacles, and it can be considered that the production capacity of most minerals is close to the limit at present. In particular, the global production cost of energy and resources has generally increased; The surplus (idle) capacity of most energy resources has been greatly reduced, and even a large number of mines that were closed before have been redeveloped, so there is little room for regulation and increase production. For example, the excess capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which has always been an indicator of supply security in the world oil market, has dropped by 70.0% compared with five years ago; Moreover, due to the influence of periodicity, the development and utilization of many newly discovered deposits will take some time.

With the increase of output, the consumption of energy and resources in the world increases at a greater speed. In 2003, the world crude oil output was 3.697 billion tons, and the consumption was 3.637 billion tons. From 1993 to 2003, oil consumption increased by 1.6%, natural gas consumption increased by 2.3% and coal consumption increased by 0.9% every year. It should be noted that the consumption of most energy and resources in developed countries is growing slowly, but it is still growing; The main new demand is concentrated in the newly industrialized countries that are climbing the slope, among which the developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region have the largest growth rate, and in the Asia-Pacific region, China has the highest growth rate of demand. The oil consumption of China, India and other developing countries has been rising continuously and rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of over 6.0%.

Nevertheless, the supply and demand of energy and resources in the world can still maintain a basic balance. From 1993 to 2003, the average annual growth rate of world crude oil production and consumption is around 1.5%, and oil production can basically meet the growth of consumption. In 2003, the world natural gas output was 26185 billion cubic meters, and the consumption was 25.9100 billion cubic meters, which basically kept a balance. But at the same time, there are still two trends in general: first, the world energy supply and demand has a trend of changing from basic balance to tight supply; Second, there is a trend from "buyer's market" to "seller's market".

While the overall situation is basically balanced, the supply and demand in some areas are extremely unbalanced. The Asia-Pacific region is the most prominent. In 2003, the proven recoverable oil reserves in Asia-Pacific region accounted for 4.2% of the world, the output accounted for 10.2%, and the consumption accounted for 28.8%, which reflected that Asia-Pacific region was in high-intensity exploitation and consumption, and it could be described as a "small horse-drawn cart" with a serious shortage of resource base. Because the output growth of global energy and resources is close to the limit and consumption continues to increase, although it is still in a state of balance on the whole, this balance is a "sub-"balance. The slightest sign of trouble will upset this balance. For example, if Chile's copper production is reduced by 500,000 tons, the world copper price will rise by about 50.0%.

Generally speaking, competition will intensify in the future, especially the competition between production capacity and market.

4. 1.3 The world energy and resources market is generally stable, but its structure fluctuates violently.

The world energy and resources market is generally stable, but the structure fluctuates violently. The main reasons are: first, the imbalance between supply and demand in some areas; Second, the rapid development of globalization has intensified monopoly; Third, the competition of transportation routes has intensified; Fourthly, in the game between producers' alliance and consumers' alliance, the former has the upper hand, especially the production capacity of most mines is produced according to long-term supply contracts, and the quantity in the spot market is very small, while the appetite for imports from China and other countries is too great for the spot market to satisfy, which intensifies the "sub-"stability of the market.

In 2003, the global oil trade volume was 2.26 billion tons, accounting for 665.438+0. 1% of the output. Among them, the net oil import of the United States reached 5665438+ billion tons, accounting for 1/4 of the world oil trade volume, the net oil import of Europe accounted for 22.0%, and Japan accounted for 1 1.6%. The Middle East is still the largest oil exporter in the world, exporting 940 million tons of oil in 2003, accounting for 4 1.4% of the world's total exports, followed by the former Soviet Union, West Africa, Central and South America and North Africa. Limited by transportation conditions, the international trade volume of natural gas in the world is less than 1/4 of the output. In 2003, the trade volume was 6237 1 100 million cubic meters, of which pipeline trade accounted for 72.9%. Russian pipeline natural gas is exported to Europe, and Canadian natural gas is exported to the United States.

Oil prices are rising rapidly, and the era of cheap oil is coming to an end. Oil prices are not entirely determined by market supply and demand. After the international oil price soared from 1973 to 1983, due to the discovery of oil fields in the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, the output of non-OPEC countries increased significantly, and the control of OPEC over world oil production decreased. At the end of the 20th century, the international oil demand rose steadily, once again forming an oligopoly pattern of oil suppliers, and the world oil market price reappeared the situation that suppliers controlled prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has once again become the main leading force in determining international oil prices. Other oil exporting countries and international oil companies work closely with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to push up oil prices.

The US war against Iraq and unilateral anti-terrorism actions directly led to the squeeze of oil production capacity in the Middle East. The oil production capacity of Iraq and Iran has been destroyed and restricted, and the risk of oil investment in the whole Middle East has increased, which has led to the obvious reduction of the oil supply replenishment capacity in the Middle East and triggered many shocks in the oil market. Due to the rising demand, suppliers' intention to maintain the trend of high prices, and non-market factors such as the Iraq war, the role of emergencies in the balance of oil supply and demand has become increasingly prominent. Due to the unpredictability of unexpected factors, it creates conditions for hedge funds to speculate in the international oil futures market. All kinds of arbitrage funds enter the oil market for speculation, which intensifies the fluctuation of oil prices. The depreciation of the dollar has also played an important role in the rise of oil prices.

The internationalization trend of world mineral resources is accelerating, and the degree of monopoly is improving, which makes the price rise. The increase in the degree of monopoly has prompted the price to rise. The sharp rise in iron ore prices does not reflect the real relationship between supply and demand. In 2005, the price of imported iron ore increased by 765,438+0.5% compared with that in 2004. In recent two years, the freight rates of iron ore in Brazil and Australia increased by 65,438+090.0% and 65,438+060.0% respectively, which has a great impact on the rapid growth of iron ore imports in China in the future. At present, the high price is partly caused by the recovery, on the other hand, it is caused by internal mechanism and institutional obstacles, mainly including the disharmony between government and enterprises, domestic capital, foreign enterprises, enterprises and departments, which leads to the fact that we are "gods" but can not enjoy the treatment of "gods". The prices of copper, nickel, chromite and other minerals still have huge room for growth. This is also the inevitable result of "Asia" balancing the market.