Many people admire Stanley kroll's ability to capture supermarkets, but what they are most concerned about is what analytical method Stanley kroll uses to enter the market. During the lecture, I specially asked this question to you. Stanley kroll said that he mainly relies on technical analysis to study a large number of long-term charts and seasonal cycles, and his motto is "KISS". It's not that he loves to fall in love. KISS is actually the abbreviation of "KeepItSimple, idiot", which means: keep it simple, so simple that you don't have to use your head or be superstitious about complicated technical analysis. This is why Stanley kroll is so successful in operating futures. Just like Li Xunhuan in Gu Long's martial arts novels, a simple, direct, fast and accurate throat sealing knife is more effective than any complicated martial arts and has the same effect.
I asked Stanley kroll what technical analysis methods and technical parameters he used. Stanley kroll introduced the technical analysis indicators he mainly used, such as moving average and DMI. Stanley focused on the moving average. The moving average is divided into single line, double line crossing and triple line crossing according to the number, and simple, weighted and exponential according to the calculation method. The performance of EMA in the big market is better than other more complex and sophisticated operating systems, and it is simple and convenient. When the closing price is higher than the moving average, you can enter the market to buy, and vice versa. For any moving average system, whether it is simple, weighted or exponential, a very important question is: how many days does it take to move the average? Is there a specific number of days for each different commodity? Stanley kroll introduced the outstanding research results made by FrankHochheimei in the article "Computers can help you do futures trading" published in the Commodity Yearbook (65438-0978). Frank tested thirteen different futures varieties from 1970-1976, and the average days of each variety were very wide. From three days to seventy days, please see the results above.
Judging from the statistical results, such a simple method can be profitable in the ever-changing futures market. Isn't it the best testimony of the KISS principle? Many futures investors know the truth, but they still can't make a profit in the futures market. Why? Stanley kroll emphasized:
1. You must have confidence in your own system (this system must stand the test of time and actual combat), instead of trying to surpass and perfect it according to personal emotions, prejudices or wishful thinking.
You must have the patience to wait for the operation signal of the system outside the venue. Once you open a position, you must have the same patience until the system sends a reversal signal.
You must strictly abide by the principles and operate according to the signals indicated by the system.
4. How to spend long-term positions is boring time, and it is also the key to whether long-term positions can be held. For example, the "ostrich policy" used by stanley kroll in the last article is a good way to avoid the situation that leads to tension and pressure when the market fluctuates the most in the middle of the big market, place an order wrongly and easily close the position.
1early October, 1985, more than three months later, coffee was sideways at 134 cents-14/kloc-0 cents. Smart technology investors will see that no matter which direction (closing price) they break through, a big market will break out. So a set of instructions was issued: buy when the price rose to 14 1.60 cents, and sell when the price fell below 133.40 cents. 1October 10 in the morning, the coffee in 65438+February opened at 138.80 cents, fluctuated within 300 points all day, and finally closed at 14 1.65 cents. In this long-awaited case, it is 14 1.60 cents -65438.
He is quite comfortable with this position, because the market has broken through the bullish situation, and a large number of short positions will flood in one after another. The next resistance level is 65438+ 160 cents in 0984. If he can break through, he will buy more. However, most of his clients are very nervous about the positions they have established, because almost all the market communication and analysis consultants on Wall Street are bearish, including some well-known commentary reports that are said to be well-connected. But I turned a deaf ear and did more at once. Customer's "concern", I really want to know what medicine I sell in my gourd. My unchanging answer is always: "It's a bull market". 1 1 In the middle of the month, I remember 1 1 month, another big customer read a report advising people to empty their coffee and urged me to explain the reasons for doing too much. I know, simple chart analysis is ugly, and it is of no use to a customer who knows nothing about technical analysis. He must call to hear some logical reasons that he can understand. When I make a phone call, I always look out of the window and see the gray and cold sky, which shows that a cold wave is approaching. I had a brainwave and found the so-called logical reason: the weather in the coffee producing area is cold, and the first severe frost and winter will hurt the growth of coffee beans and reduce the harvest. This statement is very reasonable, and the customer is finally satisfied, so I decided to ask another customer next time and use the same answer.
As expected, the bullish trend of the market began to strengthen, and then the highest rose to 270 cents. The following weekend, I had nothing to do, and it suddenly occurred to me that Brazil and Colombia, the main coffee producing areas, are south of the equator, and winter in the northern hemisphere is summer in the southern hemisphere. Severe winter? Severe winter? Reduce the harvest? It's sheer nonsense! But how many people believe in simple technical analysis?
After hearing this story, I really regret it. If only I could hear it a year earlier. 1994, the author also experienced a more spectacular wave of American coffee market. Graphics and experience are very similar. Coffee broke through the consolidation area of 88 cents and 100 cents without news stimulation. After the bottom was confirmed, it rose sharply, and the market fluctuated between 130- 140 cents. At that time, the author held more than 39 lots. Stimulated by the news that 20% of Brazil's coffee trees were damaged by frost and winter, it opened higher by more than 30 cents on Monday (6 cents stopped, and there was no daily limit in recent months, 1 cent =375 dollars/hand), and 39 lots made a profit of more than 3 million. In the face of huge profits, most lots were quickly liquidated, but compared with the later 270 cents, tens of millions of profits were really insignificant. At that time, the domestic news about the author's overseas futures was still relatively closed. As a domestic retail investor, we should follow the simple technical analysis method like a master. After breaking through the big head and shoulders formed by the consolidation of 85 cents and 100 cents, he can buy positions in time, and the profit of 30 million can be easily obtained.
Success in investment means doing simple and correct things over and over again.
While listening to stanley kroll's lecture, I noticed that he spoke very slowly, which confirmed the author's personality characteristics for long-term and short-term investors. From 1975 to 1980, Crowe lived in Switzerland and Bahamas, studied financial markets and wrote many monographs. 198 1 year later, he returned to wall street and gradually turned his attention to Asia, because he believed that 2 1 century would be the financial century of Asia. After coming to Hong Kong in 1990s, he invested in the company and worked as an investment consultant in Beijing from 65438 to 0998. He believes that Asian traders have the potential for success, enterprise and courage, and may be the best traders in the world. But they also have shortcomings to overcome: when the market reverses, they still tend to stick to their positions and refuse to stop losses. It seems that the master's warning investors should always keep in mind.