The first volume of the book department invited the chief economist (chief consultant) of top international and domestic financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Nomura Securities and DBS Bank to participate. I have expressed my representative views on whether China's economy has bottomed out, China's macroeconomic trend in 20 13 years and the medium and long term.
Among them, Li Xunlei, chief economist of Haitong Securities, said that people have misjudged China's economic structure at present, with investment overestimated and consumption underestimated. By rebalancing investment and consumption, China's economic growth potential can be increased; Edward Chang, chief economist of Nomura Securities China, believes that the medium and long-term potential growth rate of China is slowing down; Song Yu, a macro economist at Goldman Sachs/Gao Hua China, believes that reform should be used to prevent the economy from sliding into the bottom; Qiao Hong, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China, believes that the economy is still in the downward stage, but it is close to the bottom; Mr. Zhong Jian, the chief expert of Shanghai Mao Yi Research Center, and his research team gave a reasonable explanation for the strange phenomenon that international oil prices are divorced from supply and demand, and predicted that China's economy will not be "lost", but the recovery cost will remain high; Liang, chief economist of DBS Bank in Greater China, believes that if the economy is stimulated through loose monetary policy, the risk of a hard landing in China will increase; Peng Wensheng, chief economist of China International Finance Corporation, said that short-term economic stabilization still depends on infrastructure investment; Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Essence Securities, said that China's economy will recover in a "U" shape; Jiang Chao, chief researcher of macro bonds of Guotai Junan Securities, believes that industrial relocation will continue to promote China's economic growth; Guan Qingyou, vice president of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, submitted the 20 13 China Economic Report, emphasizing that the new cycle of "four modernizations" will come out of recession; Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, still feels that China's economy has encountered bottlenecks in the medium term and must rely on reform to drive long-term development; Fu Peng, chief macroeconomic consultant of galaxy futures, believes that in the prospect of 20 13, China's economy will go out of the road of "n" recovery.
The interview with the chief economist in this book was completed in the third and fourth quarters of 20 12. Although these chief economists have conducted independent research, based on the focus of the topic, their views have many intersections, many of which are tit for tat. For example, there are at least three different views on what China's economy will look like: U-shaped, L-shaped and N-shaped; When it comes to monetary policy, there are also disputes about whether it should be relaxed; In the "troika" to start the economy, there are obvious differences as to whether the proportion of investment is high or low. Whether the coastal industries should move inward or not, the conclusions are quite different ... It is no exaggeration to say that the chief economist prepared a "feast of views" in the book Thinking of the Chief Economist (I)-Will China's economy "hard landing".