"The long-term trend is rising, the medium-term trend is also rising, and the short-term trend is still rising, and they are all quite stable. Gold now looks more real than all currencies. " David, an analyst at Luen Thai Gold, told China Business News that the price of gold hit a record high.
Before reaching a new high of 17 years, the copper price in London kept hitting a record high, and silver also soared. These two varieties have boosted the price of gold more than the foreign exchange market.
Recently, the relationship between the gold market and the foreign exchange market has become lax and even run counter to each other. Since September, gold has been more obviously manifested as a commodity attribute, rather than a monetary attribute. Last Friday, the September non-farm payrolls data released by the United States was far better than expected. However, the US dollar index only rose by 40 points, less than one-third of the decline last Thursday (the news that the central bank sold the US dollar that day), which just verified the fact that the US dollar is currently weak. At that time, the euro fell immediately after the release of non-agricultural employment data, while gold only reversed itself after a short decline.
Yesterday, the international spot gold price in Europe rose by 2.7 USD to 476.50 USD per ounce, the highest since June 1988. US dollar futures in June 5438+February rose 2.5 US dollars to 477.50 US dollars. The contract rose to a maximum of $478.80 last Friday, trying to break through $479 to trigger a stop loss, but it ended in failure.
Bobby, an analyst of Luen Thai Gold, believes that according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of June 4 10, the speculative positions of funds were 63. 1% and 15.9%, and the long positions reached 229,464 lots, an increase of 981compared with last week. Although the open position accumulated like a snowball is like a sword hanging overhead, the double bottom of the euro has basically taken shape. The active cooperation of the foreign exchange market makes gold bulls turn a blind eye to the open position accumulated too high, showing the intention of reaching new heights.
Chen Jinhua, general manager of Beijing Jingyi Investment Co., Ltd. told reporters that understanding the long-term trend of gold prices is tantamount to dialogue with history. Especially at present, commodity futures prices are in a hot trend, and oil prices hit a record high. It is probably superficial to judge the positioning of gold only from the relationship between supply and demand in recent years. Indeed, inflation restricts the stock market, but supports the yields of gold and bonds.
Chen Jinhua said that since 1980, the interest rate has shown an overall downward trend, which makes the interest rate remain at a low level even after the Fed raises interest rates 1 1 times (the federal funds rate is less than 4%). Long-term low interest rates have incited inflation and gold prices. We don't know who is the cause and who is the result, but the cycle of the market only reflects nature.
(China Business News)