(1) Reserve funds should be used for investment. This is the first prerequisite for any investment. Investment can't use the money of life, production and operation, and can't affect the quality of daily life and operation, but use personal spare time and special surplus funds of enterprises. As long as you have the ability to invest, you can keep a peaceful mind, and a peaceful mind is often conducive to successful transactions. ?
(2) Fully understand futures contracts. Before selling or buying futures contracts, we should conduct a comprehensive and careful study on their types, quantities and prices. Don't be greedy in buying and selling contracts, even experienced traders can hardly trade more than three different types of futures contracts at the same time. When choosing a contract, you should choose the main contract with the largest turnover. In the process of futures trading, it should be comprehensively applied through basic analysis or technical analysis combined with the operating characteristics of futures prices. ?
(3) Make a trading plan. Numerous experiences and lessons show that it is impossible to stand on the futures market for a long time without a clear trading plan. A trading plan is a blueprint for success. Making a trading plan can force traders to consider some problems that may be missed; Traders can know what kind of market environment they are in, what kind of trading direction they will take, how to do right, how to do wrong, how to do high, how to do low, and when to change their trading plans to cope with the changing market environment; Traders can choose a trading method that suits their own characteristics, and only the correct method can make a profit. The market is unpredictable, and countermeasures are better than predictions. ?
(four) determine the profit and loss limit. The profit-risk ratio of entering the market should reach 3: 1. In every operation, investors should predict the possible minimum profit target and maximum loss limit. If it is above 3: 1, they will enter the arena, otherwise they will give up. ?
(V) Determine the invested venture capital. First, diversify the direction of capital investment, rather than focusing on a certain transaction. Second, the position should be limited to the amount that you can control completely, otherwise it will be difficult to control too many positions. Third, we should also set aside some funds for possible new trading opportunities. Successful futures investors have come to the experience that only when the initial position is proved to be correct can additional investment transactions be made, and the additional investment amount should be lower than the initial investment amount. Trading positions should be hedged according to the original trading plan to prevent greed. However, the market is changeable, and investors should make appropriate adjustments according to the actual changes in market conditions, maintain flexibility, act according to plans, and not stick to rules. The desire for profit in a transaction mainly depends on the experience and personal preference of investors. Successful trading is ultimately influenced by personal emotions, objective reality, analytical methods and trading plans. ?
Second, the investment method?
The basic strategies of futures trading are: 1, buy low and sell high or sell high and buy low. 2. Buy low or sell high on average. When adopting this strategy, we must take the view of the general trend of the market as the premise. 3. pyramid trading. 4. arbitrage. When the price difference between two contracts exceeds the normal range, buy one contract and sell the other contract at the same time, so as to hedge and close the position at the same time when the contract price difference narrows. Textbooks say that the arbitrage risk is small in theory, but in fact, when the price difference between two contracts changes abnormally, there must be a reason, and this reason and result may exist for a long time or even worsen. At this time, arbitrage trading is obviously a contrarian behavior, and the risk is infinite.
The essential feature of futures price fluctuation is that the futures market itself does not create wealth, but distributes wealth between futures bulls and bears. When the price rises, the short losses gradually expand, and the short positions that can't bear the losses will close their positions. Short positions are equivalent to doing more, further pushing up prices, and sometimes short positions will seal a daily limit. Until the bear market is eliminated and wealth is distributed. When the price falls, the opposite will happen until the bulls are eliminated. In view of the above characteristics of futures price fluctuation, futures prices are sometimes difficult to be explained by fundamentals and technology. Once the price trend is formed, it will last for a long time. ?
(a), in the opening stage?
1. Choose the opportunity to enter the market. Generally, basic analytical methods are used to carefully study whether the market is in a bull market or a bear market. The bull market does not talk about the top, and the bear market does not talk about the bottom. Once the trend is formed, it is easier to continue rather than reverse. Go with the flow, don't sail against the current. Chasing up and killing down, don't try to bargain-hunting (don't always choose short with the biggest increase and long with the biggest decrease). Second, weigh the risks and profit prospects. Finally decide when to enter the arena. Futures prices are changing rapidly, bull markets are also pulling back, and bear markets are rebounding, because futures are based on the day-to-day profit and loss settlement. Sometimes, even if the analysis of the market development trend is correct, investors will still suffer heavy losses if the timing is wrong. At this time, technical analysis has a certain effect on the entry time. When opening positions, it should be noted that futures contracts can only be bought when the market trend has obviously increased; When the market trend drops obviously, sell futures contracts. If the trend is unclear, don't rush to open a position. ?
2. pyramid trading. If the market is the same as expected after the opening of the position, investors have been used to make profits and can increase their positions. Masukura should follow the following two principles: (1) Masukura can only be increased if the existing position is profitable. (2) The increase of positions should be gradually reduced. ?
(2) In the liquidation stage?
1, master the principle of limiting losses and rolling profits. This principle requires investors to hedge their losses immediately and give up and leave when the losses reach a predetermined amount. When the market changes are favorable, there is no need to rush to close the position and make profits, but to extend the holding time and use the floating profit to increase the position when necessary. Even experienced investors can't make a profit every time, and the loss is not terrible. What I am afraid of is that I can't stop the loss in time, which will lead to great disaster. ?
2. Flexible use of stop loss. Stop loss price should not be too close to the market price at that time, nor too far away from the market price, which can be determined through technical analysis. When the market trend develops in a favorable direction, investors can continue to hold positions and adjust the stop-loss price at the same time. Until the market trend reverses. ?
(3) Do a good job in capital and risk management?
Fund management refers to the allocation of funds. Including: portfolio design, diversification arrangement, how much funds should be allocated for investment in each market, the design of stop loss point, the balance of return and risk ratio, what measures to take after success or frustration, and whether to choose conservative and cautious trading mode or aggressive and bold mode. ?
1. General essentials of fund management:?
(1), the investment must be limited to 50% of the total capital. If the total fund of the account is 100000 yuan, only 50000 yuan can be used for trading at most. ?
(2) The total investment in any single market must be limited to 10% to 15% of the total capital. For example, an account with 100000 yuan can only invest 10000- 15000 yuan as a deposit in any single market to avoid hanging from a tree. ?
(3) The maximum loss of any single market must be limited within 5% of the total capital. For example, the venture capital of an account 100000 yuan is no more than 5000 yuan. ?
(4) The total margin invested in any market group must be limited to 20-25% of the total capital. Members of the same group are usually under the same trend. If all the funds are injected into the same group of markets, it will violate the principle of risk diversification. ?
The above essentials are common in the international futures market, but they can also be modified according to the specific needs of various traders. ?
2. Decide the number of positions. Once traders decide to trade in a certain market and choose the right time to enter the market, it is time to decide how many contracts to buy and sell. Here, the rule of 10% is adopted, and the account funds (such as 100000 yuan) are multiplied by 10% to get the deposit amount that can be injected for each transaction. Suppose the margin requirement for each gold contract is 2500 yuan. Then 10000 is divided by 2500 to get 4, and traders can hold positions of 4 gold contracts. The above items are only necessities, and in some cases, you need to master them flexibly. The most important thing is not to get too involved in a single market or market group, so as not to lose money one after another and cause great disaster.
3. Diversified investment and centralized investment. Futures investment is different from securities investment. Futures investment advocates vertical investment diversification, while securities investment advocates horizontal investment diversification. The so-called vertical investment diversification refers to choosing a few contracts to open positions in batches, and the so-called horizontal investment diversification refers to investing in multiple securities at the same time to spread risks. ?
4. Long-term investment and short-term investment. Futures are subject to T+0 trading, and positions can be closed at any time on the same day. Futures contracts have an expiration date, and the main contracts with active trading are usually 1 to 2 months. Futures can also be invested for a long time. For example, Warren Buffett said that in the next 10 year, he will short the dollar futures for a long time. Investors should flexibly decide the holding time of futures according to their own funds and market conditions at that time. Don't make a small profit and run away. If you lose money, put it away for a long time. But to maximize profits, minimize risks and strictly stop losses.