Indonesia is rich in lithium and nickel resources, and its nickel mine reserves and output rank first in the world. It is expected that the continuous growth of reserves and output in the future will also come from this country. Comparing the data from 20 15 to 2020 published by the US Geological Survey, the global nickel reserves increased by about170,000 tons in five years, and Indonesia increased its output by165,000 tons.
As soon as the announcement came out, investors' comments on Cailian APP came one after another. Some people say that "it has taken off", while others say that "it is cyclical and asset-oriented, and the money earned is not enough."
The announcement also shows that this fundraising project is in line with the development trend of high nickel in ternary power batteries, which can effectively seize the rapid development opportunity of high nickel in the downstream market and consolidate the advantages of existing nickel resources; At the same time, the integrated layout of nickel raw materials related to ternary precursors of the company is mainly provided by the company. In the future, with the continuous expansion of the new energy automobile industry, the company's precursor capacity planning will be further improved. The company's addition of 6.5438+0.2 million tons of nickel metal nickel cobalt hydroxide raw materials will also better meet the needs of the company's ternary precursor business production and operation, and strengthen the resource guarantee of the nickel supply chain.
According to public information, Huayou Cobalt has planned and constructed four nickel projects in Indonesia, namely, 60,000-ton wet process project in Kazuki Watanabe musician, 45,000-ton pyrometallurgical project in Huake, 6,543.8+200,000-ton wet process project in Hua Fei and 6,543.8+200,000-ton wet process project in cooperation with the public, with a total of 345,000 tons, which have been put into production one after another since 2022. Recently, the company signed a contract with Vale to cooperate in Indonesia, and initially set a wet process project of 6.5438+0.2 million tons. It is planned that the total production capacity of nickel metal in the future will be 465,000 tons/year.
In the next few years, the company's main source of cobalt raw materials will turn to Indonesia, and the company's three wet nickel projects in Indonesia will increase the supply of 37,800 tons of cobalt raw materials. Lu Rixin, an analyst in orient securities, said in a research report on May 9 that the company's cobalt products are divided into three aspects: self-use, commissioned processing and external sales. With the expansion of the production and sales scale of ternary precursors, the scale of self-use will increase rapidly, and the company's cobalt smelting capacity is expected to be further increased to more than 50 thousand tons.
Guo Jin Securities said that with the continuous release of Indonesian intermediate products, the price of nickel will fall in the medium term. However, considering that Indonesia's MHP production and domestic high-grade nickel matte processing capacity will take some time to improve, and the current historical low inventory supports nickel prices, the rate of nickel price decline may be relatively slow in the second half of the year.
The data shows that in 20021year, the revenue of new energy battery materials and raw materials of Huayou Cobalt Industry was1903.6 billion yuan, accounting for over 50%. According to the product classification, the cobalt income is 84 1.2 billion yuan, accounting for 23%; The income of ternary precursor is 576 1 100 million yuan, accounting for16%; The income of nickel products is 25 1 100 million yuan, accounting for 0.7 1%.
Zhongtai Securities Xie Honghe said in the research report on May 3rd1that according to the company's current capacity expansion plan, after the completion of the project under construction, the ternary precursor production capacity will be 325,000 tons, and the company plans to increase the wholly-owned precursor production capacity to over 300,000 tons and the joint venture production capacity to over 6,543,803 tons in the next three years. At the same time, the company reached a long-term supply agreement of 90,000 tons in 2020 with POSCO, and reached a 20021year supply agreement with Bai Rong Science and Technology, Funeng Science and Technology and Dang Sheng Science and Technology. In 2022-2025, the total supply will reach 64 15-926500 tons.
Yin Xianwei, an analyst at Toubao Research Institute, said in a research report released in February that the ternary precursor industry is booming due to the outbreak of new energy market demand and the improvement of ternary battery permeability under the trend of high nickel. It is estimated that the global demand for ternary precursors will reach 2.7 million tons in 2026, and the market scale will reach 245.6 billion yuan.
Recently, Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. subscribed for 49% equity of LG Chemical Subsidiary with 56,543.8+0.4 billion won, strengthened cooperation with LG, and further expanded the layout of cathode materials. After the company has planned to complete all the production capacity, the production capacity of cathode materials will reach 279,000 tons.
The announcement also shows that after the completion and commissioning of the battery-grade lithium salt project in Yulin, Guangxi, the production capacity of battery-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate will be increased by 27,724 tons/year and 25,286 tons/year, which can effectively strengthen the integrated layout of Huayou Cobalt in the lithium metal field, making the company an integrated leading enterprise covering the three core metal raw materials of nickel, cobalt and lithium horizontally and the whole industrial chain from resources to materials vertically.
According to the profit forecast and valuation, Xie Honghe predicts that the company's net profit returned to its mother in 2022 will be 6149 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 58% (significantly lower than 235% and 5438+0 in 2026).
In the secondary market, Huayou Cobalt closed up more than 7% on Friday, almost the same as the high point of the year. In the long run, since the stock price reached the low point of the year on April 26, the cumulative maximum increase so far has reached 77%.
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