Regardless of the handling fee, the probability of futures profit and loss is 50% in theory, but if it is long-term, the handling fee is actually very small, about a few ten thousandths, but why do people generally think that the probability of futures losing money is very high?

This is mainly due to the leverage of futures margin and short-term heavy position operation.

If it is a gambling bet, you have 100 yuan, and bet with a 50% profit and loss probability:

For every dollar you bet, you can play forever;

Every time you bet ten dollars, you may lose it all;

Every time you bet 100 yuan, you basically lose it all.