In the grain market, the price of wheat eased slightly, but the price of corn was relatively "worrying". Due to market pessimism and insufficient demand, corn prices have fallen back. In Shandong, the center of gravity of corn has been moving down, and many places have fallen below 2800 yuan/ton!
Judging from the trend of live pig prices, the price of live pigs has fluctuated recently. On July 22nd, 0.3 yuan fell to 22.36 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs continued to bottom out. The price of live pigs in the north fell further, especially in the northeast, to 2 1. 1 yuan/kg. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price of live pigs in Heilongjiang dropped to 1 kg, which was higher than that in 3 yuan.
This round of pig prices continued to fall. The important change is that retail pig farms rebounded in the past and pig prices rose. At present, the price sentiment of retail pig farms in Northeast China and North China is strong, but the price of pigs continues to fluctuate downward. It seems that the slaughter performance of retail pig farms has gradually weakened the impact on pig prices!
Personally, the key to the "closure" of retail pig farms lies in the poor follow-up of consumption, the poor delivery of fresh pork downstream, the increase of surplus in the wholesale market, and the reduction of orders for white pigs in slaughterhouses, which is obviously unsatisfactory. The "cliff-like" decline in the daily average orders of some slaughterhouses has also led to a significant reduction in the scale of pig purchase in slaughterhouses!
After the dog days, due to the influence of high temperature and precipitation, the risk of epidemic disease in pig farms is high, while the appetite of big pigs at hand becomes worse and the weight gain is not ideal. Therefore, the rhythm of large-scale pig enterprises is accelerated, the number of suitable pig sources is increased, the purchasing enthusiasm of slaughterhouse retail pig farms is weakened, and large-scale pig enterprises mainly purchase. However, due to the poor online bidding transactions of large pig enterprises, the enthusiasm of downstream traders for receiving goods is not high, and the transaction price of large-scale pig farms is low, which also supports the downward trend of pig prices.
However, personally, the supply of live pigs is still in a decreasing cycle at this stage due to the influence of the productive capacity of sows on hand. Therefore, with the arrival of the end of the month, the slaughter plan of large pig enterprises is gradually completed, and the voice of retail pig farms is still strong, and pig prices are still expected to fluctuate and rebound!
In the domestic grain market, the recent food prices are "too worrying". On the one hand, the price of wheat has been falling for more than a month, and the price quoted by the flour mill has gradually bottomed out, which is 1.5 yuan/kg. Although the price of wheat has gradually stopped falling recently due to the high price of grain stored in Beijing Grain Depot, it is difficult to get a substantial boost due to the lack of support from the demand side, and the market will continue the trend of sideways at the bottom. On the other hand, the decline in corn prices has rebounded. Although the center of gravity of corn price has been moving up continuously since it was concentrated by traders, the price of corn in many places in Shandong has risen to more than 1.5 yuan/kg. However, due to the weak demand of enterprises after entering the dog days, some factories were overhauled, and the international food prices fell in the middle of the year, and the domestic futures corn prices fell sharply, and the market haze remained. Under the influence of multiple negative emotions, corn prices continued to fall.
At present, due to the end of grass-roots purchase and sale in the northeast market, the demand for goods hoarding and deep processing by traders is poor, and the price of corn is weak. But the price is hard to rise, and the northeast has also entered the rainy season. Some traders listed more tidal grain, and corn prices also showed a "steady decline" performance!
However, the listing of wet grain in North China and Huanghuai areas has increased, and the demand-side feed mills and deep processing enterprises are not willing to purchase, and enterprises are strongly motivated to reduce costs. Inventory consumption is the main reason for the overhaul of some deep processing enterprises in the middle of the year. However, the listing of a large number of wet grain further aggravated the performance of enterprises to suppress prices. The price of corn in Shandong has fallen in a wide range, with some areas falling below 1.4 yuan/kg!
Due to the continuous decline of international food prices in the short term, the bearish sentiment still exists in the market, and the downstream products on the demand side have a strong destocking performance, and the enthusiasm for corn warehousing is average, and the quality of corn is worrying. There is still a risk that corn prices will continue to fall. However, with the price of corn falling below 1.4 yuan/kg, some traders will face more pressure to lose money, and the wait-and-see mood in the market will become stronger. Under the supply-demand game, the corn price will enter the bottom sideways stage, and the price will run weakly in a narrow range.
Pig prices "dive", food prices "worry", and corn falls back. What happened? What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!