International food prices began to fall. China's corn prices have been running at a high level for more than a year, and it is inevitable that corn prices will return to normal prices. I think the decline in corn prices is not a decline, but a rational return. Falling futures prices are the demand of market adjustment. With futures prices so high, who dares to invest? Only when futures prices fall will investors feel profitable, reduce risks and dare to invest and speculate. At present, corn investors in the futures market may all make profits and leave the market, and the market corn price may return to a dull state. We should regard the current decline in corn prices as market adjustment and as the energy of saving.

I. Demand and Supply of Corn The demand for corn in China is relatively stable, and there is no problem of "quiet recovery". The annual demand is about 280 million tons, while the total output of corn is about 270 million tons/year. With 8 million tons of imported corn, corn substitutes basically meet the needs of deep processing. Last year, the production capacity of live pigs was greatly restored, and the demand for feed corn increased greatly, so the demand for deep processing last year was around 290 million tons. However, the production capacity of live pigs has decreased this year, and the demand for feed corn has declined. This year, China implements soybean and corn compound drilling, and the total output of corn is expected to reach 270 million tons. The southern corn will be harvested and listed in September. New corn can be grafted with old corn. China's corn mainly needs feed, ethanol and starch. With such a large amount of deep processing, the operating rate of starch processing is insufficient, and investors may have insufficient confidence in the future corn price.

Second, regarding the corn price in the second half of this year, the current decline in corn prices is not terrible, and there is no irrational fluctuation. The higher the price of corn, the greater the risk of falling. For more than a year, corn has stood firmly at 1.50 yuan, and it is time for adjustment. But it will not plummet, it will not fall forever, and it will never recover. After the new corn is listed, the market supply will rise and the price will fall, but it may rebound before the Spring Festival. Judging from the corn market I have been paying attention to for many years, there is a wave of rebound around the Spring Festival on New Year's Day. There is also a wave of increase in March and April after the Spring Festival. After New Year's Day, if deep processing enterprises want to reserve corn processed next year, they must purchase in large quantities and increase their inventory. Secondly, after the Spring Festival, deep processing enterprises may have insufficient inventory in March and buy a large number of northeast corn, while northeast people like to sell corn in March. There is such a tradition. It was too cold to sell before the year, and wet corn could not be stored after the year, so the price of corn may rebound from March to April.

Third, the world food crisis will soon pass, and food prices will eventually fall. At present, the international wheat price has begun to fall, the world food crisis will soon pass, and the food price will eventually fall. The corn in China mainly depends on self-sufficiency, and the planting area and yield of corn are increasing year by year. This year, corn replaced the total output of wheat 1.3 trillion Jin, and the supply and demand of corn in China were balanced. In the future, corn prices may rise in bands, accompanied by price correction. It is impossible to have a situation that only goes up for more than a year in a row. If you are a hoarder or trader, it's time to consider the risks.