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What is the impact of the rise of the US dollar on crude oil futures? Is crude oil going up or down?
Generally speaking, the appreciation of RMB makes the price of crude oil fall, while the decline of US dollar makes the price of crude oil rise. The rise of the dollar can have a certain impact on crude oil, but as I said above, the impact is not the main one. There is also a simultaneous rise in crude oil and the dollar. Because crude oil is denominated in dollars, crude oil and dollars are usually negatively correlated. A stronger dollar will put pressure on crude oil prices. However, due to the strong upward trend of oil prices, the negative correlation between the US dollar and crude oil is not obvious. First, inflation arbitrage leads to the simultaneous rise of crude oil and the US dollar. This arbitrage first pushes up oil prices and inflation expectations, and then bets on the Fed to speed up the rate hike and look at more dollars. Secondly, geopolitical events in the Middle East are frequent, the regional situation is unstable, and oil prices are constantly pushing up, all of which have the participation of American political forces. We believe that the situation in the Middle East is highly complicated. The contradiction between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the contradiction between Israel and Saudi Arabia may cause geopolitical tensions and push up the upward risk of oil prices. Let's talk about the eight factors that affect crude oil:

Oil, also known as black gold, is a kind of non-renewable energy, which is widely used and closely related to our daily life. Oil price is related to the national economy and people's livelihood and the world economic and political structure. The market is also calculated in dollars.

1. Sudden major political events

In addition to the attributes of general commodities, oil also has the attributes of strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and situations. In recent years, with the development of political multipolarization, economic globalization and production internationalization, competing for oil resources and controlling the oil market have become important reasons for the oil market turmoil and soaring oil prices.

For example; Presidential election, sudden death or resignation of the top leader, war. . . .

2. Changes in oil inventories

Inventory is a buffer between supply and demand and plays a positive role in stabilizing oil prices. The inventory level of OECD has become the vane of international oil price, and the influence of commercial inventory on oil price is obviously stronger than that of conventional inventory. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory, stimulate the spot price to rise and reduce the spot price difference of futures; When the futures price is lower than the spot price, oil companies tend to reduce commercial inventory, and the spot price drops, forming a reasonable price difference with the futures price.

For example; Every Wednesday, the inventory will change.

3. Market intervention by 3. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and International Energy Agency

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries controls most of the world's excess oil production capacity, and IEA has a large amount of oil reserves, which can change the market supply and demand pattern in a short time, thus changing people's expectations of oil price trends. The main policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is to limit production and protect prices, and reduce prices to protect production. The 26 member countries of IEA * * * control a large amount of oil stocks to deal with emergencies.

Examples, speeches of two organizations, policies, increasing production or reducing production.

4. Short-term capital flows in the international capital market

Since the 1990s, the international oil market has been characterized by a significant increase in the influence of the futures market, and now a price formation mechanism has been formed from the futures market to the spot market. Although speculation in the international crude oil market is not the inducement of oil price rise, due to the lack of investment opportunities in the global financial market, a large amount of funds will enter the international commodity market, especially the crude oil market, which will inevitably push up the international oil price and seriously deviate from the fundamentals.

For example; The investment trend of regional countries is directly related to politics and interest rates.

5. Exchange rate changes

Relevant research shows that there is a weak correlation between oil price changes and exchange rate changes between the US dollar and major international currencies. Due to the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, the real income of petroleum products priced in US dollars declined, which led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain the high price of crude oil as a response.

For example; Most oil transactions are still settled in US dollars, and the exchange rate between US dollars and non-US currencies will affect oil prices.

6. Abnormal climate

Many countries in Europe and America use oil as heating fuel. Therefore, when the climate changes abnormally, it will cause short-term changes in the demand for fuel oil, thus driving the price changes of crude oil and other petroleum products. In addition, abnormal weather may cause damage to oil production facilities, lead to supply interruption, and then affect oil prices.

For example; relationship between supply and demand

7. Changes in interest rates

In the standard non-renewable resource model, the increase of interest rate will lead to the decrease of future mining value relative to current mining value, so the mining path will be convex to the present and far away from the future. High interest rate will reduce capital investment, leading to a smaller initial mining scale; High interest rates will also increase the capital cost of alternative technologies, leading to a decline in mining speed.

For example; Interest rate changes in the world's major economies, the United States, China and the European Central Bank

8. Tax policy

Government intervention will make the market consumption curve convex to the present or the future. The tax effect of intertemporal oil exploitation mode depends on the present tax value that changes with time. For example, with the passage of time, the reduction of the present value of tax will change the decision of mining order. Compared with no taxation, taxation will eventually reduce the net income at any time, and will also reduce the mining enthusiasm in the corresponding period. In addition, taxes will reduce the return on investment of newly discovered reserves.