Although the price of live pigs has briefly recovered after the new year, it is difficult to change the downward trend. The average price of three-yuan live pigs nationwide has dropped to 14.47 yuan/kg, which is getting further and further away from the cost price.

After a period of rising prices, the price of urea has slowed down. Recently, negative factors have accumulated in the market. The price of urea has stopped falling and has stabilized with small movements.

As for corn, the volume on the market has increased rapidly, but the demand side has not followed suit, causing the price of corn to rebound.

Sheep prices are uncharacteristically rising during the traditional consumption off-season.

Early warning of "sharp fall" in pig prices

On February 3, the national average pig price continued to fall by 0.14 yuan/kg, with the average price falling to 14.47 yuan/kg.

Specifically, prices in various regions fell to 7-7.5 yuan in East China, 6.7-7.15 yuan in Central China, stable at 6.7-8.2 yuan in South China, and dropped to 6.8-7.3 yuan in North China. The price in the Northeast region fell to 6.8-7.2 yuan, while in the Southwest region it rose to 6.4-7 yuan.

It is not difficult to find that pig prices in various places have fallen below cost prices across the board, and losses on the breeding side continue to intensify.

However, pig dealers believe that this is not the lowest point of pig prices, and will continue to fall in the future. The specific logic is:

1. The backlog of large pigs in southwest, northeast and other regions still remains. serious.

2. After the epidemic stabilizes, although the catering and tourism industries continue to recover, this cannot change the sluggish pork consumption after the Spring Festival.

3. Stimulated by low temperatures, African plague has re-emerged in some areas, and many farmers have been forced to sell or even clear their stalls.

4. Pig prices continue to be low, and the breeding side suffers serious losses. Some farmers have eliminated sows, further increasing the supply of pork in the market.

It is expected that the low point of the pig price this time should be around 6.5 yuan. First, because some areas have issued notices for students to start school early. Second, due to the impact of the epidemic two years ago, various stores are stocking up on bacon and frozen meat. The quantity is not large, which will help the recovery of fresh meat consumption after the holidays.

Third, feed prices are soaring. After the price of pigs continues to fall, the willingness of the breeding industry to raise prices will increase.

Urea “stable and slightly decreased”

For some time, the price of urea continued to rise. Even if the increase slowed down, it failed to change the price increase trend.

Affected by the decline in futures urea prices in the past two days, spot urea prices have "steadied but declined slightly", and individual manufacturers have begun to loosen their prices.

At present, the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Shandong is around 2750-2770 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Hebei is around 2730-2750 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Jiangsu is 2870-2890 yuan. / ton, the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Yunnan is around 2850-2900 yuan / ton.

The price of urea has stopped rising and stabilized, mainly due to changes in the following aspects:

1. The decline in international urea prices has driven up domestic urea prices.

2. The market is not worried about the impact of storage, and the market's bearish sentiment has increased, which has suppressed the push for urea demand to a certain extent.

3. Agricultural demand is gradually stabilizing, but large-scale demand has not yet come.

4. At present, it is common that the shipment of early orders is the main one, the follow-up of new order demand is slow, and the advance receipt is lower than expected.

In the short term, there is a lack of motivation for urea prices to rise, the possibility of continued rise is declining, and the market may fall into a stalemate.

Corn counterattacks from decline

In recent days, the price of corn has continued to fall. After the holiday, corn briefly rose for two days. Traders in the industry and grassroots farmers cheered. Who had ever thought of opening the market? That is, the peak, a short-term rise and then a downward reversal.

On February 3, deep processing companies in Shandong generally lowered their quotations by 0.5-1.3 cents, and deep processing companies in North China lowered their quotations by 0.5-1.5 cents. The quotations of deep processing companies in Northeast China were temporarily stable.

The decline in corn prices is mainly affected by the following factors:

1. Grassroots farmers have gradually come out of the New Year atmosphere and begun to sell grain. The amount on the market has increased. In the past two years, The number of remaining vehicles in Tianshandong Deep Processing Enterprises in the morning remained high and continued to exceed 1,000 vehicles.

2. Deep processing enterprises had a large stockpile of corn before the year, and after the year, the amount of corn increased, but the demand of enterprises did not follow up.

3. The price of pigs continues to be sluggish, and the subsequent demand for corn in feed is doubtful.

Next, corn prices are still easy to fall but difficult to rise. The current demand benefits brought by the recovery of the catering industry have not yet been transmitted to the supply side. On the supply side, grassroots farmers will raise grain after the spring. Funds are needed to prepare for spring sowing. After the temperature rises, it is more difficult to store tide grains, and the amount will also increase. The recent outflows from Northeast Drying Towers are also gradually increasing. Coupled with the downturn in the demand for live pigs, it is expected that the corn market will There will be stable and slight downward fluctuations.

Sheep prices have soared abnormally

Currently, this is a low period for mutton consumption, but the price of live sheep has soared abnormally. There are two major sheep and goat bases in Yanwo, Shandong and Tangxian, Hebei. The prices have increased significantly. Compared with before the festival, the prices of small-tailed Han sheep have increased by about 1.7 yuan, fine-wool sheep have increased by about 1.5 yuan, and Xinmin sheep have increased by about 2.1 yuan, an increase of about 10%.

I think the abnormal rise in sheep prices is inseparable from the influence of the following factors:

1. During the Spring Festival, the tourism and catering industries resumed, and the demand for mutton surged. The mutton hoarded in the market was consumed on a large scale.

2. Sheep prices continued to be low years ago, and farmers suffered serious losses. In order to stop losses, they were more enthusiastic about selling sheep and overdrawn the supply of live sheep after the holiday.

3. The farmers who need to eliminate ewes have basically finished eliminating them.

4. After the epidemic stabilizes, consumption picks up, increasing demand for mutton.

At present, the supply of live sheep in the market is experiencing a periodic shortage. It is expected that sheep prices will still have room to rise further, but it may still be necessary to wait until April or May to completely reverse the previous decline.