Basic factors of coking coal price fluctuation in the relationship between supply and demand. Generally speaking, the supply of coking coal has little effect on its price. Taking Dajiao Coking Coal Group as an example, the correlation between its output and ex-factory price of products is 0.65.
1, the influence of coking coal supply on price. The supply of large coking coal production enterprises is mainly to meet the needs of downstream large steel mills and keep the coal industry running smoothly as a whole, so the price adjustment of large groups has changed obviously mainly under the sudden change of market supply and demand.
2. The influence of downstream demand on price. From the demand point of view, the coke and steel industries have the greatest impact. 20 1 1 The output of coke and crude steel reached a new high. According to theoretical calculation, 1 ton of coke needs to consume 1.3 ton of coking coal, while 1 ton of steel needs to consume 0.65 ton of coking coal. It is estimated that the demand for coking clean coal is about 592 million tons. The output of coking coal, coke and rebar has a strong correlation. From the price fluctuation, the trend of the three is generally the same.
3. The influence of industrial policies on prices. For coal mining and dressing enterprises, the state's investment in fixed assets in the whole coal industry is an important indicator to measure the scale, speed, proportion and use direction of fixed assets investment in this industry. China protects the scarce coking coal resources, encourages imports and optimizes the coking coal structure in China. Therefore, in the long run, coking coal production will be stable, and scarcity will support higher prices. The adjustment of domestic coal policy has a certain impact on coking coal price, and the policy adjustment of major foreign coking coal source countries also has a certain impact on domestic coking coal.
4. The international coking coal price and the influence of import and export on the price. From the perspective of coking coal trade pricing mechanism, it can be roughly divided into three types: BHP Billiton and Japan's Mitsubishi Corporation (BMA) adopt monthly pricing with buyers; Japan, South Korea and other large steel enterprises negotiate prices with big mines every quarter; Discussion between Chinese and foreign sellers. By comparing the price of international coking coal agreement with the price of major coking coal in China, it is found that the international coking coal price has a certain guiding effect on the domestic market, but the intensity is limited.
5. Influence of transportation on coking coal price. For bulk commodities such as coking coal, railway has always been the main mode of coal transportation because of its advantages of large transportation capacity, high speed, low cost and low energy consumption. Generally speaking, the freight from the largest coal-producing area to coastal ports is about 100 yuan/ton, and the freight to East China is about 150 yuan/ton. The freight rate of trucks is about 0.6 yuan/ton per kilometer. Compared with railway freight of 0.07 yuan/ton and waterway freight of 0.03-0.04 yuan/ton, long-distance road transportation of coal is not cost-effective. However, due to the lack of railway capacity, there is still a market for long-distance road transportation. In addition to railway and highway transportation, waterway transportation, as the main way from the northern seaport to East China and South China, has an important impact on the downstream consumer market in China. Judging from the domestic sea freight rate, the domestic coastal freight rate has fallen, mainly due to the global economic downturn, the slowdown of domestic economic growth and the unsatisfactory demand of downstream enterprises.