What will happen to the stock market after the Fed raises interest rates? The financial manager sees it this way.

After the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June 5438+065438+ 10, Yellen said that at the meeting in June 5438+065438+ 10, the FOMC judged that it was appropriate to raise interest rates once in a relatively short period of time, and its policy stance was only moderately loose. It may be appropriate to raise interest rates "soon", and delaying raising interest rates for too long may lead to additional risks. The economy only supports gradual interest rate hikes, and monetary policy must remain forward-looking.

At the same time, the US federal funds interest rate futures, as the weather vane of the Fed's interest rate hike, show that traders expect the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in June 5438+February to reach 100%, compared with 95% last Monday. Everyone is betting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June+February 5438!

So, what would the stock market do if the Fed really raised interest rates in June and February of 5438? Let's take a look at how the stock market has gone since the Fed raised interest rates in history.

As far as the China stock market is concerned, purely from the data point of view, since 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen within 1 month after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three rounds, and its performance in the first quarter after the first interest rate hike is also poor.

However, this may be more closely related to domestic factors in China, because in 2004 and 2004, even before the Fed raised interest rates, the Shanghai Composite Index was still falling. 1999 China stock market experienced a sharp rise in the early stage and began to adjust in July of that year. The Fed's interest rate hike may be one of the catalytic factors.

Under the expectation of interest rate increase of USD 12, the pressure of RMB depreciation increases in the face of the strength of USD. Although the central parity of RMB against the US dollar ended the continuous decline of 12, it continued to be under pressure after a short correction.