Can the market continue to rebound after Changyang at 100?
During the National Day holiday, the external market rose like a rainbow, and after the A-share holiday, it pulled out a hundred points of Changyang, and the economic data to be released was unanimously optimistic. Can A-shares break through the financial pressure of GEM opening, refinancing and share reform, and form a Big bounce in the fourth quarter? In this issue, Beijing Roundtable invited Zhou Jianchun, the fund manager of Dacheng's strategic return and Dacheng's positive growth (net worth, archives, fund bar), Zeng, general manager of Cinda Aussie's stock investment department and flexible allocation fund manager of Cinda Aussie, and Lu Weiqiang, deputy general manager of Zhicheng.
Jia Bin: Dacheng strategic return and Dacheng positive growth (net worth, archives, fund bar) (1) Fund manager Zhou Jianchun
Zeng (left), general manager of the stock investment department of Cinda Aussie Bank and flexible allocation fund manager of Cinda Aussie Bank.
Lu Weiqiang, Deputy General Manager of Zhicheng Haiwei Company (right)
Moderator: china securities journal reporter Fei Yi
Beijing Roundtable
Overseas markets rose to benefit A shares.
Moderator: During the National Day holiday, overseas stock markets surpassed Big bounce. June 5438+ 10 Can this rebound last? How big will the positive impact on A shares be?
Zhou Jianchun: From various indications, the global economic recovery trend is obvious, and the European and American markets will continue to rise steadily. The extent of the rebound needs to be judged according to specific economic data. In the past, the recovery of overseas economy lagged behind that of China by one quarter, and there was no complete positive correlation between the external market and A-shares, even a certain deviation. For example, before the holiday, US stocks rose, but due to investors' concerns about expansion and the slowdown in credit scale, A shares fell sharply. If the time is extended, overseas markets and A shares are positively correlated. I judge that if overseas markets continue to rise in the fourth quarter, this positive correlation will continue to improve.
Lu Weiqiang: The rise of overseas markets benefited from the strong performance of the US housing market, the stable employment situation, the profits of some enterprises exceeding expectations, and Australia's interest rate hike. Their expectations for investors are essentially that the recovery of the real economy is more obvious, especially in some countries and governments. In the context of the gradual withdrawal of strong economic stimulus policies. This is a good sign, at least it can be confirmed that the worst period has passed, and some emerging markets may start to recover ahead of schedule. The recovery of the real economy in foreign developed countries has brought substantial benefits to China's economy, and this positive impact is more far-reaching and lasting.
Zeng: The overseas market rose because the prospects for economic recovery became clearer after the foreign economic data came out. Affected by this, Australia began to raise interest rates, indicating that it is no longer worried about the economic downturn, but the United States and other major European and American countries did not enter the interest rate hike cycle so soon. However, it should be noted that the external market has been strengthening since late September, which may reflect the expectation of economic recovery to some extent. It remains to be seen whether this upward trend can continue.
The economic data is in line with expectations.
Moderator: Some time ago, the shock and downturn in the A-share market mainly came from investors' concerns about macroeconomics and policies. The economic data for September will be released soon. How do you judge?
Zhou Jianchun: The economic data in September will be normal and basically in line with expectations. It is very difficult to see the phenomenon of exceeding and falling short of expectations, and the credit scale will shrink slightly, which may be slightly lower than expected. In the past July and August, the market was mainly too optimistic about the economic recovery, so once there was no data that exceeded expectations, A shares would be weak. Now that A-shares have been substantially adjusted, the data is basically in line with expectations, and the market will behave normally. I judge that the impact of macroeconomic data in the third quarter will be less important. The key depends on the degree of profit recovery of listed companies. If the performance growth is better than the previous quarter, the market will go up.
Zeng: Generally speaking, these economic data are gradually improving. It is expected that the investment data will be high in September, and the consumption and retail data are still good. The only possible decline is the credit data, but this decline is normal and it is impossible to have such a large increase in the first half of the year. 300 billion to 500 billion a month is normal. In addition, the previous market rise was mainly driven by economic recovery, and later it was mainly driven by corporate profit growth. Since corporate profits will not be reflected soon, I judge that the stock index may fluctuate, but the downward momentum will not be great. Mainly because: on the one hand, the economic data is gradually improving, on the other hand, the current market valuation is 2 1-22 times, slightly lower than the historical average, and many A-H shares have been upside down.
Lu Weiqiang: The substantial adjustment of monetary policy and the large increase in the market in the short term are important reasons for the previous market adjustment. The performance of domestic macro-economy is actually within the expectations of the market. The economic performance in September will not exceed market expectations in most aspects. What is worth looking forward to is the data of export and consumption, which has a high probability of exceeding expectations. The credit data that the market is very concerned about will not change much before June 5438+ 10 next year, and will remain at around 300-500 billion every month.
Limited inventory supply shock
Moderator: Among the factors of the previous decline, the "supply shock" of inventory is an important reason. Now the central bank says that the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter will maintain the continuity and stability of the policy, and the performance will meet expectations. Overseas stock markets rebounded sharply. How to treat the pressure of A-share funds in the fourth quarter?
Zhou Jianchun: From the perspective of capital supply, the current moderately loose monetary policy will not change much, and the capital supply will be relatively loose in the first quarter of next year. From the perspective of stock supply, I am not worried about the impact of the lifting of the ban on GEM and share reform. Judging from the performance of the GEM IPO in September, its impact will not be great. The lifting of the ban on share reform peaked in the fourth quarter, but these enterprises are all central enterprises and there will be no large-scale reduction. I'm more worried about the refinancing of the main board. The refinancing scale of listed companies will be equal to a large number of new shares. Considering that the scale of fund issuance is still relatively large, many new funds issued last month are still in the process of opening positions, and the funds in the securities market will be more balanced.
Zeng: It has little influence on "non-size". In the fourth quarter, the "size and size" of large-cap blue-chip stocks was lifted, and the reduction will not have a big impact. My judgment is more about the impact of IPO. On the one hand, the IPO of the main board is released quickly, and on the other hand, the GEM companies are listed in batches. Although the amount of financing, except CNR and CSIC, will not be very large, but it will have a certain impact on investor confidence.
Lu Weiqiang: The psychological impact of supply shock is obviously greater than the actual impact. For example, the circulation scale of GEM is only about 20 million shares. Even if there are 100 GEM enterprises before the end of the year, their circulating market value is equivalent to that of a large and medium-sized listed company. The ban on 65438+ 10 is mainly due to ICBC, and it is extremely unlikely that Huijin and the Ministry of Finance will reduce their holdings of ICBC. The reason for the supply shock is untenable. On the contrary, the more direct impact on the market is the supply of funds. In fact, although the incremental credit funds in the second half of the year obviously lagged behind those in the first half of the year, the huge credit supply in 2009 is a foregone conclusion, and the liquidity of the real economy and financial markets is already abundant. Even if the monthly credit is maintained at about 300-500 billion yuan in the second half of the year, it will be enough to meet the needs of the real economy. All investors need is confidence.
New energy sources will show up in the fourth quarter.
Moderator: In the fourth quarter, is there any possibility of a rebound in the blue-chip sector that institutional investors have long adhered to?
Zhou Jianchun: If the market rebounds, the bank, real estate, insurance and resource stocks with heavy fund positions are more likely to rise. This is determined by the valuation difference. Many blue-chip stocks were adjusted in the third quarter. Driven by the upcoming launch of the Growth Enterprise Market, the trend of small and medium-sized stocks with medicine and partial consumption is still very strong. After this round of adjustment, the valuation of large stocks is below 20 times, and the valuation of these small stocks is 30-40 times. There is great pressure to raise the valuation again. At present, among the A-shares and H-shares listed in Hong Kong, many large-cap blue-chip stocks are upside down, and their further decline momentum is actually very weak.
Zeng: The market may not rebound on a large scale soon, and the trend will be relatively stable, but there will be many local hotspots such as construction machinery and cement that will benefit from the start of infrastructure construction. I think investment in the fourth quarter should pay attention to the recovery of corporate profits. Once the profits of an industry or enterprise rebound sharply, it will cause great concern in the market. More optimistic about the banking sector, because the bank's valuation is low and the growth is certain. The current demand for real estate is not bad, and the reason why the national statistical sales volume is not good is that the supply has not yet come out, which has an inhibitory effect on the real estate sector.
Lu Weiqiang: In the fourth quarter, the first is performance. The performance in the third quarter will be the basis of the performance of individual stocks in the fourth quarter. In the first half of the year, some stocks with no performance support and theme speculation may be risky. From the performance point of view, there is definitely a chance for the blue-chip sector. The promising industries mainly include banking, insurance and coal. And the real estate sector is not optimistic in the short term. The main reason is high housing prices, and the stalemate between buyers and sellers cannot be changed in the short term. It is expected that the new house transaction will be in the fourth place.
Moderator: This time last year, new energy took the lead in rebounding. Will the new energy sector, which has been consolidated for two quarters, become a hot spot in the market again?
Lu Weiqiang: New energy is our long-term optimistic sector. Since the beginning of 2009, we have focused on the allocation of new energy sectors such as new energy vehicles, LEDs and wind power. In the fourth quarter, the new energy sector will be divided, and the industry space with core technologies and state support is very broad.
Zeng: I prefer that new energy is a local hot spot. However, the trend of the new energy market will be closely related to the convening of relevant meetings, the introduction of policies and the signing of various agreements. Generally speaking, it is still a thematic opportunity, and there may be performance in the fourth quarter.
During the National Day holiday, the external market rose like a rainbow, and after the A-share holiday, it pulled out a hundred points of Changyang, and the economic data to be released was unanimously optimistic. Can A-shares break through the financial pressure of GEM opening, refinancing and share reform, and form a Big bounce in the fourth quarter? In this issue, Beijing Roundtable invited Zhou Jianchun, the fund manager of Dacheng's strategic return and Dacheng's positive growth (net worth, archives, fund bar), Zeng, general manager of Cinda Aussie's stock investment department and flexible allocation fund manager of Cinda Aussie, and Lu Weiqiang, deputy general manager of Zhicheng.