"At present, the production and operation are very stable", and the Economic Observer replied when contacting the CRRC Secretary Office as an investor.
The secretaries of China Railway and China Railway Construction responded to similar information, that is, the infrastructure sector was undervalued before, and now it is a market correction and its value is restored.
"The company is operating normally. Although the previous sector fell too much, it has now returned to a normal market rebound, "the secretary-general of China Railway Construction told the Economic Observer.
Zuo Dajie, an associate professor at the School of Transportation and Logistics of Southwest Jiaotong University, analyzed the Economic Observer that the infrastructure sector has been at a low level for a long time in the near future, and the increase in these days may be due to the withdrawal of funds from other sectors. A number of securities companies believe in the research report that the value of the construction sector was underestimated before and is now entering a repair period.
Yu Zhanfu, global partner of roland berger and vice president of Greater China, told the Economic Observer that this growth may come from the superposition of many factors, such as the opening of the world's first high-temperature superconducting high-speed maglev prototype and test line on June 5438+1October 65438+March 3, and the growth of China-Europe railway freight volume under the influence of overseas epidemics.
Since the beginning of 20021,this rebound has shown a momentum: from June 5th, 65438+, CRRC's share price began to enter an upward channel, and on June 3rd 14, two daily limit boards were pulled, and the share prices of China Railway Construction, China Communications Construction and China Railway were almost the same, and almost all of them were like this in 2020.
The rise of infrastructure-related stocks has attracted the attention of research institutions. A number of brokerage research reports have given similar conclusions, that is, Chinese prefix construction enterprises were undervalued before and are expected to usher in repair.
Guosen Securities put forward in the investment strategy of the construction industry in June 5438+ 10 that the construction industry will fall by 8% in 2020, ranking the third from the bottom among all industries, and will go out of the trend of serious deviation from the index by the end of 2020. With the implementation of the counter-cyclical control policy, orders are expected to accelerate, performance is highly certain, and valuation repair space is large. In the Research Report on the Relationship between Local Debt and the Expansion of State-owned Construction Enterprises, Zhongtai Securities thinks that State-owned Construction Enterprises are underestimated. After three years of low-speed operation, the concentration of head enterprises has improved. With the fluctuation of demand entering a new mid-cycle, it is urgent to switch the valuation system.
On the investor platform, many of the above-mentioned infrastructure-related enterprises with prefixes have been repeatedly asked by investors why their share prices have continued to fall. China Railway responded in the platform: "In recent years, the overall performance of the infrastructure industry has been weaker than that of the broader market. The company's performance has achieved steady growth in recent years, but the company's share price failed to reflect the growth trend and intrinsic value of performance. "
The contrast between this performance and the stock price is particularly obvious in 2020. In 2020, many industries were negatively affected by the epidemic, but under the counter-cyclical adjustment policy, infrastructure-related enterprises also showed contrarian growth.
According to the data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the growth rate of infrastructure investment and real estate investment of1-1has turned positive, and the growth rate keeps expanding. During the period of 1- 1 .0% year-on-year, the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points faster than that during1-1,and the investment in real estate development grew steadily. During the period from 1 to 1, the investment in real estate development increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points faster than that during the period from 1 to1.
Some businesses of the above companies will also benefit from this in 2020. Except for the decrease of CRRC contract amount compared with 20 19, the new contracts signed by the other three infrastructure-related enterprises all showed a year-on-year growth trend. In the first three quarters of China Railway Construction, the total amount of new contracts signed in the engineering contracting sector increased by 26.96%, the new contracts signed in China railway infrastructure business increased by 25.4%, and the new contracts signed in China Jiao Jian infrastructure business increased by 6544. In the two major infrastructure areas of highway and railway, except for the new orders of China Railway Construction Railway Project, the others have maintained growth. In 2020, the new contracts signed by China Railway Road Business will increase by more than 60%.
Whether this round of rise can be sustained is still inconclusive. On June 5th, 65438+ 10/kloc-0, CRRC issued an announcement on abnormal fluctuation of stock trading, saying that the production and operation activities were normal, there was no major adjustment in the market environment or industrial policies, and there were no major matters that should be disclosed but not disclosed. On the day of the announcement, infrastructure-related enterprises have shown a callback trend. By the time this article was written, CRRC's share price had fallen by more than 7%, and China Railway Construction, China Jiao Jian and China Railway also fell to varying degrees.
As an important support for the performance of the above-mentioned companies, the intensity of infrastructure investment in 20021China will greatly affect the judgment of its value, among which the transportation infrastructure fields including railways, highways, urban rail and ports contributed more than 50% of the orders of relevant companies. The Economic Observer combed the information on transportation infrastructure investment disclosed by relevant departments. According to the disclosure plan, the transportation infrastructure investment in 20021year will remain relatively stable. Many people in the industry are cautious about the investment of 202 1.
20021national transportation work conference, it is estimated that the investment in transportation fixed assets will be about 2.4 trillion yuan in 20021year. In contrast, in 2020, the investment in roads, waterways, railways and civil aviation of the National Transportation Work Conference will be about 2.7 trillion yuan, slightly reduced.
In fact, the targets set at the beginning of the past three years fluctuated around 2.5 trillion yuan, but the actual completion amount was around 3.5 trillion yuan.
Liu, secretary-general of China Highway Society, told the Economic Observer that, on the whole, under the national strategic background of a traffic power, China's highway traffic will still be in a platform period of rapid development in the next five to 15 years. The scale of investment will continue to increase, but the direction and focus of investment will be adjusted. One is the field of intelligent transportation, the other is the local road system, especially rural roads, and the third is the optimization and upgrading of road network structure. Higher quality development, transformation and upgrading development path.
A person in charge of a consulting company in the field of expressways told the Economic Observer that the current market is cautious in judging the total investment of 202 1 expressways, and the distribution is uneven. Another PPP consulting company also suggested the characteristics of uneven regional distribution.
In transportation infrastructure investment, railway investment has also contracted to a certain extent. According to the data disclosed by China National Railway Group Co., Ltd., the fixed railway investment in 2020 will be 78 19 billion yuan, which is lower than 800 billion yuan for the first time in recent years. The mileage of the new line planned to be put into operation in 20021year is also slightly lower than that in 2020.
Sister Zuo predicted that the scale of railway investment will continue to decrease in 20021year. There are many reasons. Externally, the economic recovery is strong, and the motivation to invest in railway infrastructure is no longer urgent. Internally, the demand for railway infrastructure may have exceeded the peak. As far as China Railway Corporation is concerned, financing ability and sustainable development restrict the fine-tuning of railway investment scale to a more reasonable scale.
In recent years, the total investment in railways and highways has been stable, and urban rail transit and municipal works led by local governments have played an increasingly important role in driving the growth rate of infrastructure investment, and the maintenance of this growth rate needs the support of local fiscal expenditure and debt scale. However, under the epidemic situation, the focus of fiscal expenditure has shifted. A person from the local transportation department told the Economic Observer that new infrastructure projects, especially large-scale transportation infrastructure, are not on the priority agenda for the time being.
Is the investment value behind the skyrocketing infrastructure stocks prominent? Original Talent Magazine 2020-03-1215: 37:19
Yu Zhanfu also gave a "cold" judgment. "At present, the occasional epidemic will bring double consumption to local government finance. On the one hand, relevant epidemic prevention policies will affect regional business activities, thus affecting fiscal revenue; On the other hand, if there is an epidemic, related expenses such as testing and epidemic prevention will also increase financial pressure. At least at present, what we see is not the soaring traffic demand and the green light all the way, but the uncertainty in the middle will have an impact on the enthusiasm and speed of infrastructure investment, "Yu Zhanfu said.